Simulating ice thickness and velocity evolution of Upernavik Isstrom 1849-2012 by forcing prescribed terminus positions in ISSM

Abstract. Tidewater glacier velocity and mass balance are known to be highly responsive to terminus position change. Yet it remains challenging for ice flow models to reproduce observed ice margin changes. Here, using the Ice Sheet System Model (Larour et al., 2012), we simulate the ice velocity and thickness changes of Upernavik Isstrøm (north-western Greenland) by prescribing a collection of 27 observed terminus positions spanning 164 years (1849–2012). The simulation shows increased ice velocity during the 1930s, the late 1970s and between 1995 and 2012 when terminus retreat was observed along with negative surface mass balance anomalies. Three distinct mass balance states are evident in the reconstruction: (1849–1932) with near zero mass balance, (1932–1992) with ice mass loss dominated by ice dynamical flow, and (1998–2012), when increased retreat and negative surface mass balance anomalies led to mass loss that was twice that of any earlier period. Over the multi-decadal simulation, mass loss was dominated by thinning and acceleration responsible for 70 % of the total mass loss induced by prescribed change in terminus position. The remaining 30 % of the total ice mass loss resulted directly from prescribed terminus retreat and decreasing surface mass balance. Although the method can not explain the cause of glacier retreat, it enables the reconstruction of ice flow and geometry during 1849–2012. Given annual or seasonal observed terminus front positions, this method could be a useful tool for evaluating simulations investigating the effect of calving laws. </jats:p

A multidisciplinary approach to landslide monitoring in the Arctic: Case study of the March 2018 ML 1.9 seismic event near the Karrat 2017 landslide

The landslide of 17 June 2017 at Karrat Fjord, central West Greenland, triggered a tsunami that caused four fatalities. The catastrophe highlighted the need for a better understanding of landslides in Greenland and initiated a recent nation-wide landslide screening project led by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS; see also&nbsp;Svennevig (2019)&nbsp;this volume). This paper describes an approach for compiling freely available data to improve GEUS’ capability to monitor active landslides in remote areas of the Arctic in near real time. Data include seismological records, space borne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data and multispectral optical satellite imagery. The workflow was developed in 2018 as part of a collaboration between GEUS and scientists from the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). This methodology provides a model through which GEUS will be able to monitor active landslides and provide relevant knowledge to the public and authorities in the event of future landslides that pose a risk to human life and infrastructure in Greenland. We use a minor event on 26 March 2018, near the site of the Karrat 2017 landslide, as a case study to demonstrate 1) the value of multidisciplinary approaches and 2) that the area around the landslide has continued to be periodically active since the main landslide in 2017

A first constraint on basal melt-water production of the Greenland ice sheet

PROMICE is funded by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) and the Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities under the Danish Cooperation for Environment in the Arctic (DANCEA), and is conducted in collaboration with DTU Space (Technical University of Denmark) and Asiaq, Greenland.The Greenland ice sheet has been one of the largest sources of sea-level rise since the early 2000s. However, basal melt has not been included explicitly in assessments of ice-sheet mass loss so far. Here, we present the first estimate of the total and regional basal melt produced by the ice sheet and the recent change in basal melt through time. We find that the ice sheet’s present basal melt production is 21.4 +4.4/−4.0 Gt per year, and that melt generated by basal friction is responsible for about half of this volume. We estimate that basal melting has increased by 2.9 ± 5.2 Gt during the first decade of the 2000s. As the Arctic warms, we anticipate that basal melt will continue to increase due to faster ice flow and more surface melting thus compounding current mass loss trends, enhancing solid ice discharge, and modifying fjord circulation.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe