International Investor Sentiment and Emerging Equity Markets in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper uses the vector Markov switching method of Hamilton (1990) to measure market sentiment in a group of countries. We investigate the apparent co-movement of equity returns in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. We argue that the main underlying forces moving stock returns in small open emerging markets are of an exogenous nature. The main factor driving prices in the region is modeled as an unobservable variable labeled "international investor sentiment". This latent variable is represented as a two-state Markov chain and makes stock returns switch from a growth regime to a depression regime, or in the opposite direction. In such a framework, the stock return process comes from a mixture of two multivariate normal distributions. The estimated latent variable shows significant correlation with a number of data series on global capital flows, mutual fund flows, regional emerging and developed markets' equity returns as well as with other popular market sentiment or economic uncertainty indicators. It does not show a strong association with a comprehensive set of contemporaneous local economic factors with the exception of the quarterly change in industrial production

High Frequency Multiplicative Component GARCH

This paper proposes a new way of modeling and forecasting intraday returns. We decompose the volatility of high frequency asset returns into components that may be easily interpreted and estimated. The conditional variance is expressed as a product of daily, diurnal and stochastic intraday volatility components. This model is applied to a comprehensive sample consisting of 10-minute returns on more than 2500 US equities. We apply a number of different specifications. Apart from building a new model, we obtain several interesting forecasting results. In particular, it turns out that forecasts obtained from the pooled cross section of companies seem to outperform the corresponding forecasts from company-by-company estimation

High Frequency Multiplicative Component GARCH

This paper proposes a new way of modeling and forecasting intraday returns. We decompose the volatility of high frequency asset returns into components that may be easily interpreted and estimated. The conditional variance is expressed as a product of daily, diurnal and sto-chastic intraday volatility components. This model is applied to a comprehensive sample consisting of 10-minute returns on more than 2500 US equities. We apply a number of dif-ferent specifications. Apart from building a new model, we obtain several interesting fore-casting results. In particular, it turns out that forecasts obtained from the pooled cross section of companies seem to outperform the corresponding forecasts from company-by-company estimation

The use of moderate hypothermia during cardiac surgery is associated with repression of tumour necrosis factor-α via inhibition of activating protein-1: an experimental study

INTRODUCTION: The use of moderate hypothermia during experimental cardiac surgery is associated with decreased expression of tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α in myocardium and with myocardial protection. In order to identify the cellular mechanisms that lead to that repression, we investigated the effect of hypothermia during cardiac surgery on both main signalling pathways involved in systemic inflammation, namely the nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) and activating protein-1 pathways. METHOD: Twelve female pigs were randomly subjected to standardized cardiopulmonary bypass with moderate hypothermia or normothermia (temperature 28°C and 37°C, respectively; six pigs in each group). Myocardial probes were sampled from the right ventricle before, during and 6 hours after bypass. We detected mRNA encoding TNF-α by competitive RT-PCR and measured protein levels of TNF-α, inducible nitric oxide synthase and cyclo-oxygenase-2 by Western blotting. Finally, we assessed the activation of NF-κB and activating protein-1, as well as phosphorylation of p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase by electrophoretic mobility shift assay with super shift and/or Western blot. RESULTS: During and after cardiac surgery, animals subjected to hypothermia exhibited lower expression of TNF-α and cyclo-oxygenase-2 but not of inducible nitric oxide synthase. This was associated with lower activation of p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase and of its downstream effector activating protein-1 in hypothermic animals. In contrast, NF-κB activity was no different between groups. CONCLUSION: These findings indicate that the repression of TNF-α associated with moderate hypothermia during cardiac surgery is associated with inhibition of the mitogen-activated protein kinase p38/activating protein-1 pathway and not with inhibition of NF-κB. The use of moderate hypothermia during cardiac surgery may mitigate the perioperative systemic inflammatory response and its complications

Frequent and sex-biased deletion of SLX4IP by illegitimate V(D)J-mediated recombination in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) accounts for ∼25% of pediatric malignancies. Of interest, the incidence of ALL is observed ∼20% higher in males relative to females. The mechanism behind the phenomenon of sex-specific differences is presently not understood. Employing genome-wide genetic aberration screening in 19 ALL samples, one of the most recurrent lesions identified was monoallelic deletion of the 5′ region of SLX4IP. We characterized this deletion by conventional molecular genetic techniques and analyzed its interrelationships with biological and clinical characteristics using specimens and data from 993 pediatric patients enrolled into trial AIEOP-BFM ALL 2000. Deletion of SLX4IP was detected in ∼30% of patients. Breakpoints within SLX4IP were defined to recurrent positions and revealed junctions with typical characteristics of illegitimate V(D)J-mediated recombination. In initial and validation analyses, SLX4IP deletions were significantly associated with male gender and ETV6/RUNX1-rearranged ALL (both overall P < 0.0001). For mechanistic validation, a second recurrent deletion affecting TAL1 and caused by the same molecular mechanism was analyzed in 1149 T-cell ALL patients. Validating a differential role by sex of illegitimate V(D)J-mediated recombination at the TAL1 locus, 128 out of 1149 T-cell ALL samples bore a deletion and males were significantly more often affected (P = 0.002). The repeatedly detected association of SLX4IP deletion with male sex and the extension of the sex bias to deletion of the TAL1 locus suggest that differential illegitimate V(D)J-mediated recombination events at specific loci may contribute to the consistent observation of higher incidence rates of childhood ALL in boys compared with girl

Totale antioxidative Kapazität bei am Herzen operierten Kindern

Oxidative stress results from the release of oxygen free radicals. The best known mechanisms which lead to the oxidative stress are ischemia- reperfusion injury and activation of neutrophile. Oxidative stress is one of the most important factors which induce inflammatory complications and tissue damage after CPB. There are an enzymatic and non-enzymatic defence mechanism against reactive oxygen free radicals which together create a total anti-oxidant capacity. Oxidative stress during operation cause consumption of antioxidants and tissue damage. Our study was aimed to determine plasma anti-oxidant capacity in children undergoing elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). The role of the oxygenation with 100% O2 during CPB was investigated. The role of hypoxemia was investigated. The influence of ischemia-reperfusion injury and oxidative stress on clinical outcome was studied. 26 children (aged from 6 to 180 months) with cyanotic (n=6; Fallot) or non cyanotic cardiac defect (n=20; VSD, ASD, AV) were investigated. All patients were operated on under general anesthesia, receiving mechanical ventilation with pure oxygen, on hypothermic CPB with or without cardio - circulatory arrest. Total anti - oxidant capacity of plasma samples was assessed by the determination of the Trolox Equivalents Anti - Oxidant Capacity (TEAC) sequentially before, during and after cardiac surgery up to the 10th post-operative day. The a-tocopherol concentration im plasma was measured. The triglyceride concentration in plasma was measured to detect a dilution and to correct a-tocopherol values. TEAC was analysed with respect to operation stress variables such as duration of CPB, aortic clamping, cardiocirculatory arrest and clinical outcome such as hemodynamic variables, renal function, maximal glutamate oxaloacetate (GOT), oxygenation index, catecholamine dosis and duration of intensiv care unit. In all children TEAC values im plasma significantly decreased after induction of anesthesia with mechanical ventilation (p<0.001). We could exlude a dilution because the concentration of triglycerides at this timepoint remained unchanged. During CPB, there was no further decrease of TEAC, but a continuous increase up to the end of CPB. TEAC values after the protamin administration showed significant higher level than 10 minutes after the onset of the CPB(p<0.001). From the end of the CPB until the 10 th day postoperative the TEAC values stay without significant differences. Preoperativ TEAC values were in cyanotic and non cyanotic patients without significant difference. TEAC values were significant higher in cyanotic patients 4 and 24 hours postoperatively (p<0.001). The TEAC values 4 and 24 hours postoperatively correlated with dte duration of the aortic clamping (Spearman 0,4 (p<0,05 and 0,5 (p<0,005)). Postoperative TEAC values correlated negatively with mediane blood pressure and positively catecholamine therapy, liver enzymen, duration of ventilation and stay on unit intensiv care. We show that 1. general anesthesia with pure oxygen ventilation and not extracorporeal circulation with ischemia - reperfusion is related to a significant decrease of the total anti - oxidant capacity of children undergoing cardiac surgery. 2. The decrease of the total anti - oxidant capacity after the oxygenation is transient and TEAC values reach preoperative level on the first postoperative day. 3. The determination of total antioxidant capacity by trolox equivalents does not allow any statements about the influence of hypoxemia 4. TEAC values after the operation were higher in patients with most operation stress and worse clinical outcome variables, suggesting release of antioxidants from damaged tissues as a response to higher stress rather than higher regeneration of antioxidant capacity

Comparison of intraday volatility forecasting models for polish equities

Several competing intraday volatility forecasting models for equally spaced data have been proposed in the literature. This study reviews a number of models and compares their forecasting performance using data on the market index of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. We also discuss choice criteria and issues specific to volatility forecast evaluation

Intraday volatility modeling: the example of the Warsaw Stock Exchange

We present an intraday volatility model for equally spaced data and apply it for the WIG Index- a broad market index of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The current study is an application and extension of the model proposed by Engle and Sokalska [2010]. We decompose the conditional variance of intraday returns into components that have a natural interpretation and can be easily estimated

Myocardial cardiotrophin-1 is differentially induced in congenital cardiac defects depending on hypoxemia.

peer reviewedAim: Cardiotrophin-1 (CT-1) is upregulated by hypoxemia and hemodynamic overload and is characterized by potent hypertrophic and protective properties on cardiac cells. This study aimed to investigate whether CT-1 is differentially induced in the myocardium of infants with congenital cardiac defects depending on hypoxemia. Methods & results: Infants with Tetralogy of Fallot (n = 8) or with large nonrestrictive ventricular septal defect (n = 8) undergoing corrective surgery were investigated. Expression of CT-1 was assessed at mRNA and protein levels in the right atrial and ventricular myocardium. The activation of the STAT-3 and VEGF were measured. Degradation of cardiac troponin-I served as a marker of myocardial damage. CT-1 was detected in all patients with levels negatively correlating to the arterial oxygen saturation. Higher CT-1 expression in Tetralogy of Fallot patients was associated with activation of the JAK/STAT pathway and higher cardiac troponin-I degradation. Conclusion: CT-1 may mediate myocardial hypertrophy and dysfunction in infants with congenital cardiac defects, particularly in those with hypoxemia