Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013-14

Eruptions of Sinabung volcano, Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2. weeks to 1. year: November 7-10, December 12-14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9-10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014

The effusive-explosive transitions at Rokatenda 2012-2013: unloading by extrusion of degassed magma with lateral gas flow

International audienceBetween October 2012 and August 2013, Rokatenda, one of the most poorly understood volcanoes in Indonesia, entered a phase of intense eruptive activity which involved extrusion of viscous lava, gas discharge and explosive activity. During the 10-month-long eruption, a lava volume of 2-5 × 106 m3 was extruded at mean output rate of 0.3 m3 s-1, with 2 to 3-month-long high extrusion rate phases being terminated by explosive events. Extrusion built a lava dome attaining a maximum height of ∼80 m above the crater rim, with a basal width of about 250 m. The composition of the 2012-2013 lava dome is comparable to that of the 1980 lava dome, both being andesite-trachydacite. Mineralogically, the 2012-2013 lava dome is mainly composed of plagioclase, pyroxene and an undetermined opaque mineral. Halogens released during eruption are consistent with the extrusion being fed, at least in the first eruption phase, by a degassed magma. This resulted in the formation of a dense, viscous plug in the conduit that led to a lateral gas flow, with gasses escaping around the plug to form multiple craters surrounding the dome. During the course of the eruptive activity, degassed magma was progressively forced out of the vent to unload deeper magma and force the system into an explosive phase. Such a scenario has occurred in the past at Rokatenda and is likely to be repeated in the future and creates an activity pattern that may be used to characterize such systems

First characterization of Gamkonora gas emission, North Maluku, East Indonesia

International audienc

The Orange Tuff : a Late Pleistocene tephra-fall deposit emplaced by a VEI 5 silicic Plinian eruption in West Java, Indonesia

A VEI 5 dacite eruption emplaced the Orange Tuff about between 34.3 cal kBP and 17.2 cal kBP. Gunung Salak is the unit’s source and the Orange Tuff represents the most recent such eruption from any of the volcanoes southwest of Bogor, Indonesia. The Orange Tuff is the region’s first such documented tephra-fall deposit whose characteristics and phenocryst geochemistry make it readily identifiable over at least 1250 km2. Magnetite compositions and temperature and fO2 estimates inferred from Fe-Ti oxide compositions are particularly useful for identifying the unit. Deposit characteristics suggest that the eruption lasted 1–11 h with mass eruption rates of 1.0–8.3 × 108 kg/s and a column height of 31–40 km. The eruption’s column height and the deposit’s 2.5–11 km3 volume suggest that the unit was dispersed over a much wider area than mapped. The unit is a marker bed throughout its mapped distribution and has potential to be applied over a much broader area as a regional marker bed. The large population and infrastructure proximal to Salak suggest that the unit should be considered in hazards assessments despite its age and the lack of subsequent similar eruptions.Published versio

Bromo activity over the last decade: consistent passive degassing and source magma evolution

International audienceBromo is among the very active volcanoes in Indonesia and is known for its recurrent and long-lasting eruptive manifestations. Past volcanic gas studies have revealed Bromo as one of the principal sources of volcanic degassing in Indonesia. This high degassing from Bromo volcano is further characterized in this work, based on more than 10 years of intermittent ground-based gas measurements, combined with daily SO2 mass, captured by the OMI sensor. Over the past decade, Bromo has released 0.7 Tg of SO2 into the atmosphere, representing 3% of the volcanic degassing budget of Indonesia and 0.3% of the global volcanic SO2 emission budget outside eruptive periods. Results also reveal that 18.8 Tg of H2O, 2.0 Tg of CO2, 0.1 Tg of H2S, and 0.005 Tg of H2 were released from the Bromo volcano in one decade. About 81% of these gases are released passively between eruptive events. The chemistry of the eruptive products, sampled between 2001 and 2019, indicate that Bromo volcanic activity is sustained by a basaltic-andesite to basalt trachy-andesite magma source with a transition from medium-K to high-K composition. Such an evolution associated to a C-rich gas likely resulted from a low partial melting and sediment contribution to the genesis of the source magma. New magma injections into the reservoir and fractional crystallization have further amplified the changes of magma composition. Finally, we speculate that the shallow reservoir replenishment, in response to the continuous strong degassing is the driving mechanism behind the Bromo frequent eruptive events

Modest volcanic SO2 emissions from the Indonesian archipelago.

Indonesia hosts the largest number of active volcanoes, several of which are renowned for climate-changing historical eruptions. This pedigree might suggest a substantial fraction of global volcanic sulfur emissions from Indonesia and are intrinsically driven by sulfur-rich magmas. However, a paucity of observations has hampered evaluation of these points-many volcanoes have hitherto not been subject to emissions measurements. Here we report new gas measurements from Indonesian volcanoes. The combined SO2 output amounts to 1.15 ± 0.48 Tg/yr. We estimate an additional time-averaged SO2 yield of 0.12-0.54 Tg/yr for explosive eruptions, indicating a total SO2 inventory of 1.27-1.69 Tg/yr for Indonesian. This is comparatively modest-individual volcanoes such as Etna have sustained higher fluxes. To understand this paradox, we compare the geodynamic, petrologic, magma dynamical and shallow magmatic-hydrothermal processes that influence the sulfur transfer to the atmosphere. Results reinforce the idea that sulfur-rich eruptions reflect long-term accumulation of volatiles in the reservoirs

New insights into Kawah Ijen’s volcanic system from the wet volcano workshop experiment

International audienc