Distributional Transformation Improves Decoding Accuracy When Predicting Chronological Age From Structural MRI

When predicting a certain subject-level variable (e.g., age in years) from measured biological data (e.g., structural MRI scans), the decoding algorithm does not always preserve the distribution of the variable to predict. In such a situation, distributional transformation (DT), i.e., mapping the predicted values to the variable's distribution in the training data, might improve decoding accuracy. Here, we tested the potential of DT within the 2019 Predictive Analytics Competition (PAC) which aimed at predicting chronological age of adult human subjects from structural MRI data. In a low-dimensional setting, i.e., with less features than observations, we applied multiple linear regression, support vector regression and deep neural networks for out-of-sample prediction of subject age. We found that (i) when the number of features is low, no method outperforms linear regression; and (ii) except when using deep regression, distributional transformation increases decoding performance, reducing the mean absolute error (MAE) by about half a year. We conclude that DT can be advantageous when predicting variables that are non-controlled, but have an underlying distribution in healthy or diseased populations

Inverse transformed encoding models - A solution to the problem of correlated trial-by-trial parameter estimates in fMRI decoding

Techniques of multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) can be used to decode the discrete experimental condition or a continuous modulator variable from measured brain activity during a particular trial. In functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), trial-wise response amplitudes are sometimes estimated from the measured signal using a general linear model (GLM) with one onset regressor for each trial. When using rapid event-related designs with trials closely spaced in time, those estimates are highly variable and serially correlated due to the temporally extended shape of the hemodynamic response function (HRF). Here, we describe inverse transformed encoding modelling (ITEM), a principled approach of accounting for those serial correlations and decoding from the resulting estimates, at low computational cost and with no loss in statistical power. We use simulated data to show that ITEM outperforms the current standard approach in terms of decoding accuracy and analyze empirical data to demonstrate that ITEM is capable of visual reconstruction from fMRI signals

A Study of replacing PVC with PEGT plastic bottles due to recycling concers for PVC

Environmental concerns in European countries caused a US cosmetics company to evaluate plastic materials to replace PVC bottles for fragrances. PVC bottles and PETG bottles were measured and tested for several attributes, including finished dimensions following molding, leak testing, ink adhesion, drop testing, and product compatibility. Testing results indicate that PETG bottles make an acceptable replacement material for PVC bottles for a fragrance package. (Abstrac

MACS - a new SPM toolbox for model assessment, comparison and selection

Background: In cognitive neuroscience, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data are widely analyzed using general linear models (GLMs). However, model quality of GLMs for fMRI is rarely assessed, in part due to the lack of formal measures for statistical model inference. New Method: We introduce a new SPM toolbox for model assessment, comparison and selection (MACS) of GLMs applied to fMRI data. MACS includes classical, information-theoretic and Bayesian methods of model assessment previously applied to GLMs for fMRI as well as recent methodological developments of model selection and model averaging in fMRI data analysis. Results: The toolbox - which is freely available from GitHub - directly builds on the Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software package and is easy-to-use, general-purpose, modular, readable and extendable. We validate the toolbox by reproducing model selection and model averaging results from earlier publications. Comparison with Existing Methods: A previous toolbox for model diagnosis in fMRI has been discontinued and other approaches to model comparison between GLMs have not been translated into reusable computational resources in the past. Conclusions: Increased attention on model quality will lead to lower false-positive rates in cognitive neuroscience and increased application of the MACS toolbox will increase the reproducibility of GLM analyses and is likely to increase the replicability of fMRI studies

Kullback-Leibler Divergence for the Normal-Gamma Distribution

We derive the Kullback-Leibler divergence for the normal-gamma distribution and show that it is identical to the Bayesian complexity penalty for the univariate general linear model with conjugate priors. Based on this finding, we provide two applications of the KL divergence, one in simulated and one in empirical data

Exceedance Probabilities for the Dirichlet Distribution

We derive an efficient method to calculate exceedance probabilities (EP) for the Dirichlet distribution when the number of event types is larger than two. Also, we present an intuitive application of Dirichlet EPs and compare our method to a sampling approach which is the current practice in neuroimaging model selection

How to avoid mismodelling in GLM-based fMRI data analysis: cross-validated Bayesian model selection

Voxel-wise general linear models (GLMs) are a standard approach for analyzing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. An advantage of GLMs is that they are flexible and can be adapted to the requirements of many different data sets. However, the specification of first-level GLMs leaves the researcher with many degrees of freedom which is problematic given recent efforts to ensure robust and reproducible fMRI data analysis. Formal model comparisons that allow a systematic assessment of GLMs are only rarely performed. On the one hand, too simple models may underfit data and leave real effects undiscovered. On the other hand, too complex models might overfit data and also reduce statistical power. Here we present a systematic approach termed cross-validated Bayesian model selection (cvBMS) that allows to decide which GLM best describes a given fMRI data set. Importantly, our approach allows for non-nested model comparison, i.e. comparing more than two models that do not just differ by adding one or more regressors. It also allows for spatially heterogeneous modelling, i.e. using different models for different parts of the brain. We validate our method using simulated data and demonstrate potential applications to empirical data. The increased use of model comparison and model selection should increase the reliability of GLM results and reproducibility of fMRI studies

How to improve parameter estimates in GLM-based fMRI data analysis: cross-validated Bayesian model averaging

In functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), model quality of general linear models (GLMs) for first-level analysis is rarely assessed. In recent work (Soch et al., 2016: “How to avoid mismodelling in GLM-based fMRI data analysis: cross-validated Bayesian model selection”, NeuroImage, vol. 141, pp. 469–489; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2016.07.047), we have introduced cross-validated Bayesian model selection (cvBMS) to infer the best model for a group of subjects and use it to guide second-level analysis. While this is the optimal approach given that the same GLM has to be used for all subjects, there is a much more efficient procedure when model selection only addresses nuisance variables and regressors of interest are included in all candidate models. In this work, we propose cross-validated Bayesian model averaging (cvBMA) to improve parameter estimates for these regressors of interest by combining information from all models using their posterior probabilities. This is particularly useful as different models can lead to different conclusions regarding experimental effects and the most complex model is not necessarily the best choice. We find that cvBMS can prevent not detecting established effects and that cvBMA can be more sensitive to experimental effects than just using even the best model in each subject or the model which is best in a group of subjects