Key policy questions for ex-ante impact assessment of European agricultural and rural policies

Policies in the agricultural and rural sectors are of key importance in shaping their sustainable development. These policies are changing from market-based policies to policies that aim to influence farmers' decision-making. Thus, the scientific literature supporting evidence-based policy-making must develop models that simulate individual decision-making (IDM) by farmers. This study aims to understand key policy objectives, related policy questions and benchmark scenarios relevant to the European agricultural sector to define the research agenda for a suite of IDM models. This research goal has been addressed following a five-step process that involved different research tools and heterogeneous actors, including key stakeholders. Results suggest that environmental policy objectives are the most relevant for European agriculture in the coming decades. Thus, the scenario modelling exercise should focus mainly on the agri-environmental policies' impacts while properly considering the potential trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives

How natural capital delivers ecosystem services: A typology derived from a systematic review

There is no unified evidence base to help decision-makers understand how the multiple components of natural capital interact to deliver ecosystem services. We systematically reviewed 780 papers, recording how natural capital attributes (29 biotic attributes and 11 abiotic factors) affect the delivery of 13 ecosystem services. We develop a simple typology based on the observation that five main attribute groups influence the capacity of natural capital to provide ecosystem services, related to: A) the physical amount of vegetation cover; B) presence of suitable habitat to support species or functional groups that provide a service; C) characteristics of particular species or functional groups; D) physical and biological diversity; and E) abiotic factors that interact with the biotic factors in groups A-D. ` Bundles' of services can be identified that are governed by different attribute groups. Management aimed at maximising only one service often has negative impacts on other services and on biological and physical diversity. Sustainable ecosystem management should aim to maintain healthy, diverse and resilient ecosystems that can deliver a wide range of ecosystem services in the long term. This can maximise the synergies and minimise the trade-offs between ecosystem services and is also compatible with the aim of conserving biodiversity. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

How Personal Judgment Influences Scenario Development: an Example for Future Rural Development in Europe

Scenarios of alternative plausible futures have been used extensively to explore the potential effects of socioeconomic and environmental change. The ultimate objective of any explorative scenario exercise is to assess the variation in possible futures to provide insights into the range of potential outcomes. These results provide stakeholders with guidance for policy development, planning, and management. We explore how personal judgment can influence scenario development. Scenarios for the future of European rural regions are used to explore alternative outcomes under a public interventionist future and a market liberalization oriented future. A transparent qualitative framework is used to identify differences in outcomes based on personal judgment. Results show that, for both scenarios, there are plausible mechanisms that can lead to similar positive or negative outcomes. Choosing a single process per scenario, based on personal judgment and interpretation, can therefore greatly influence scenario outcomes and limit the range of uncertainty that is covered by the scenarios. The exercise shows the importance of making these judgments explicit in scenario development, especially when exploring broad consequences of alternative policy directions that may be based in political worldviews

Mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services. Urban ecosystems

Action 5 of the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 requires member states to Map and Assess the state of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES). This report provides guidance for mapping and assessment of urban ecosystems. The MAES urban pilot is a collaboration between the European Commission, the European Environment Agency, volunteering Member States and cities, and stakeholders. Its ultimate goal is to deliver a knowledge base for policy and management of urban ecosystems by analysing urban green infrastructure, condition of urban ecosystems and ecosystem services. This report presents guidance for mapping urban ecosystems and includes an indicator framework to assess the condition of urban ecosystems and urban ecosystem services. The scientific framework of mapping and assessment is designed to support in particular urban planning policy and policy on green infrastructure at urban, metropolitan and regional scales. The results are based on the following different sources of information: a literature survey of 54 scientific articles, an online-survey (on urban ecosystems, related policies and planning instruments and with participation of 42 cities), ten case studies (Portugal: Cascais, Oeiras, Lisbon; Italy: Padua, Trento, Rome; The Netherlands: Utrecht; Poland: Poznań; Spain: Barcelona; Norway: Oslo), and a two-day expert workshop. The case studies constituted the core of the MAES urban pilot. They provided real examples and applications of how mapping and assessment can be organized to support policy; on top, they provided the necessary expertise to select a set of final indicators for condition and ecosystem services. Urban ecosystems or cities are defined here as socio-ecological systems which are composed of green infrastructure and built infrastructure. Urban green infrastructure (GI) is understood in this report as the multi-functional network of urban green spaces situated within the boundary of the urban ecosystem. Urban green spaces are the structural components of urban GI. This study has shown that there is a large scope for urban ecosystem assessments. Firstly, urban policies increasingly use urban green infrastructure and nature-based solutions in their planning process. Secondly, an increasing amount of data at multiple spatial scales is becoming available to support these policies, to provide a baseline, and to compare or benchmark cities with respect to the extent and management of the urban ecosystem. Concrete examples are given on how to delineate urban ecosystems, how to choose an appropriate spatial scale, and how to map urban ecosystems based on a combination of national or European datasets (including Urban Atlas) and locally collected information (e.g., location of trees). Also examples of typologies for urban green spaces are presented. This report presents an indicator framework which is composed of indicators to assess for urban ecosystem condition and for urban ecosystem services. These are the result of a rigorous selection process and ensure consistent mapping and assessment across Europe. The MAES urban pilot will continue with work on the interface between research and policy. The framework presented in this report needs to be tested and validated across Europe, e.g. on its applicability at city scale, on how far the methodology for measuring ecosystem condition and ecosystem service delivery in urban areas can be used to assess urban green infrastructure and nature-based solutions

Lymphovascular and perineural invasion as selection criteria for adjuvant therapy in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a multi-institution analysis

AbstractObjectivesCriteria for the selection of patients for adjuvant chemotherapy in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (IHCC) are lacking. Some authors advocate treating patients with lymph node (LN) involvement; however, nodal assessment is often inadequate or not performed. This study aimed to identify surrogate criteria based on characteristics of the primary tumour.MethodsA total of 58 patients who underwent resection for IHCC between January 2000 and January 2010 at any of three institutions were identified. Primary outcome was overall survival (OS).ResultsMedian OS was 23.0months. Median tumour size was 6.5cm and the median number of lesions was one. Overall, 16% of patients had positive margins, 38% had perineural invasion (PNI), 40% had lymphovascular invasion (LVI) and 22% had LN involvement. A median of two LNs were removed and a median of zero were positive. Lymph nodes were not sampled in 34% of patients. Lymphovascular and perineural invasion were associated with reduced OS [9.6months vs. 32.7months (P= 0.020) and 10.7months vs. 32.7months (P= 0.008), respectively]. Lymph node involvement indicated a trend towards reduced OS (10.7months vs. 30.0months; P= 0.063). The presence of either LVI or PNI in node-negative patients was associated with a reduction in OS similar to that in node-positive patients (12.1months vs. 10.7months; P= 0.541). After accounting for adverse tumour factors, only LVI and PNI remained associated with decreased OS on multivariate analysis (hazard ratio4.07, 95% confidence interval 1.60–10.40; P= 0.003).ConclusionsLymphovascular and perineural invasion are separately associated with a reduction in OS similar to that in patients with LN-positive disease. As nodal dissection is often not performed and the number of nodes retrieved is frequently inadequate, these tumour-specific factors should be considered as criteria for selection for adjuvant chemotherapy

Differences in consumer decision-making styles among selected south-east European countries

Fast changes in retailing and complex consumer decision-making processes have increased the need for additional investigation of differences and similarities in consumer decision-making styles (CDMS) in various countries. This paper tests the reliability and validity of Sproles and Kendall’s Consumer Style Inventory (CSI) instrument, identifies and compares CDMS in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia (FYR). Data obtained from surveys conducted among university students in observed countries (n = 1.206) were analysed by using exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses and the analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results provided support for six factors, which means that the original US eight-model cannot be fully applied in this region. Croatian consumers are the least brand-conscious and novelty-fashion conscious. Macedonian consumers are the most quality-conscious, brand-conscious, novelty-fashion conscious, recreational shopping conscious and brand-loyal, while Bosnian consumers are the most confused by overchoice. The traits of price consciousness and impulsiveness were not tested because of lack of reliability among items. The paper provides guidelines for marketers on how to position and more effectively advertise their products and services in analysed countries