Um sistema de dinâmica demográfica para os municípios amazônicos

Population growth and migration represent an important underlying cause of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Models designed to simulate deforestation should therefore incorporate a demographic dynamics system to help project the influence of these variables on the location and rates of deforestation across the basin. We present a demographic model that projects population at municipality level by computing migration fluxes among the Amazonian municipalities and in and outward the region, as well as their crude birth and death rates. The annual projections from 1995 to 2035 are based mainly on mortality, fertility and migration data from 1991’s and 2000’s IBGE census. The model assumes a logistic curve to project the municipalities’ crude birth and death rates, which are derived using specific functions of fertility and mortality by age. The migratory fluxes were determined by establishing a origin-destiny matrix for all the Amazonian municipalities and Brazilian states for the 1995-2000 time period. VESIM, a system-thinking software which allows the solution of simultaneous equation for the 810 defined spatial units by employing integration techniques - such as the Runge-Kutta method, is used to implement the simulation model. Validation was performed comparing 2000’s IBGE municipality data. The model is designed to handle various scenarios of regional migration in face of the current projects to expand infrastructure across the Amazon region.demographic model; regional migration; Brazilian Amazon

Prospects for land-use sustainability on the agricultural frontier of the Brazilian Amazon

The Brazilian Amazon frontier shows how remarkable leadership can work towards increased agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability without new greenhouse gas emissions. This is due to initiatives among various stakeholders, including national and state government and agents, farmers, consumers, funding agencies and non-governmental organizations. Change has come both from bottom-up and top-down actions of these stakeholders, providing leadership, financing and monitoring to foster environmental sustainability and agricultural growth. Goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land-cover and land-use change in Brazil are being achieved through a multi-tiered approach that includes policies to reduce deforestation and initiatives for forest restoration, as well as increased and diversified agricultural production, intensified ranching and innovations in agricultural management. Here, we address opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon in working towards low-carbon rural development and environmentally sustainable landscapes

Will passive protection save Congo forests?

Central Africa\u27s tropical forests are among the world\u27s largest carbon reserves. Historically, they have experienced low rates of deforestation. Pressures to clear land are increasing due to development of infrastructure and livelihoods, foreign investment in agriculture, and shifting land use management, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The DRC contains the greatest area of intact African forests. These store approximately 22 billion tons of carbon in aboveground live biomass, yet only 10% are protected. Can the status quo of passive protection - forest management that is low or nonexistent - ensure the preservation of this forest and its carbon? We have developed the SimCongo model to simulate changes in land cover and land use based on theorized policy scenarios from 2010 to 2050. Three scenarios were examined: the first (Historical Trends) assumes passive forest protection; the next (Conservation) posits active protection of forests and activation of the national REDD+ action plan, and the last (Agricultural Development) assumes increased agricultural activities in forested land with concomitant increased deforestation. SimCongo is a cellular automata model based on Bayesian statistical methods tailored for the DRC, built with the Dinamica-EGO platform. The model is parameterized and validated with deforestation observations from the past and runs the scenarios from 2010 through 2050 with a yearly time step. We estimate the Historical Trends trajectory will result in average emissions of 139 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s, a 15% increase over current emissions. The Conservation scenario would result in 58% less clearing than Historical Trends and would conserve carbon-dense forest and woodland savanna areas. The Agricultural Development scenario leads to emissions of 212 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s. These scenarios are heuristic examples of policy\u27s influence on forest conservation and carbon storage. Our results suggest that 1) passive protection of the DRC\u27s forest and woodland savanna is insufficient to reduce deforestation; and 2): enactment of a REDD+ plan or similar conservation measure is needed to actively protect Congo forests, their unique ecology, and their important role in the global carbon cycle

Assessing the impacts of the EU bioeconomy on third countries

To achieve its decarbonisation targets and boost the bioeconomy, the EU will inevitably consume more biomass. The EU’s own biomass resources will meet part of the demand although these ambitious targets will also require reliable and sustained access to third country suppliers. This ex-ante study assesses the potential impacts on land use changes, and associated GHG emissions, in Brazil resulting from increases in EU demand for ethanol to 2030, and draws evidence-based conclusions to verify the compliance of sugarcane feedstock production with the REDII environmental criteria. Land use changes due to expansion of the other main crops, including soybean, have also been calculated. Finally, the study points out that the difference between the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets by 2030 (ca. 22 million CO2 tons) and our results is approximately an additional 900 million CO2 tons, which could put the country's contribution to Paris Agreement at risk.JRC.D.1-Bio-econom

SIMULAÇÃO DOS IMPACTOS DAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS GLOBAIS NA EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIA DA BACIA AMAZÔNICA BRASILEIRA

A intensificação do processo de aquecimento do planeta causado pelo aumento na emissão de gases do efeito estufa (GEE) representa inúmeros riscos para os ecossistemas naturais. Mudanças na composição atmosférica podem alterar variáveis climáticas em diversas regiões do planeta, dentre elas a Bacia Amazônica Brasileira (BAB). Considerada a maior bacia hidrográfica do planeta, esta região influencia o clima de outras partes do Brasil e da América Latina. Portanto, alterações na BAB podem acarretar em desequilíbrios ambientais em outras regiões. Dentre os efeitos causadas pelas mudanças climáticas, estão as modificações nos padrões de evapotranspiração, importante reguladora do ciclo hidrológico. Neste artigo simulamos as alterações futuras na evapotranspiração de referência (ETo) na BAB decorrentes de um contínuo aumento nas emissões de GEE (cenário RCP 8.5). Utilizamos a plataforma Dinamica EGO para implementar um modelo espacialmente explícito baseado no método de Penman-Monteith padronizado pela FAO. A validação foi realizada comparando estatisticamente os resultados entre as simulações e as observações. Dessa forma, comprovamos que o modelo representa de forma próxima ao real o processo de evapotranspiração na BAB. A sazonalidade projetada da ETo se manteve estatisticamente similar à observada até o ano de 2050, com o aumento da ETo durante a estação seca e diminuição durante a estação chuvosa. A ETo apresentou um padrão de distribuição espacial com maiores valores na porção leste, se estendendo no sentido norte-sul. Este padrão acompanha a distribuição dos valores de temperatura e saldo de radiação, além de coincidir com o arranjo espacial do desmatamento.  Um forçamento radiativo de 8,5 w/m² em todo o planeta poderá aumentar a ETo na BAB, devido à elevação nos valores de temperatura e saldo de radiação solar. Este aumento é mais evidente na região nordeste se estendendo progressivamente para o sudoeste da bacia. Ao longo do século 21, as futuras alterações nos padrões de ETo podem trazer grandes problemas para as práticas agrícolas e para o abastecimento hídrico na BAB e em outras partes do País. Em suma, as mudanças climáticas globais, refletindo em alterações na ETo em conjunto com o aumento do desmatamento, podem acarretar em uma desregulação do balanço hídrico. Os nossos resultados reforçam a necessidade da adoção de ações governamentais efetivas com o objetivo de mitigar os efeitos das intensas emissões de GE

Mining drives extensive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Mining poses significant and potentially underestimated risks to tropical forests worldwide. In Brazil\u27s Amazon, mining drives deforestation far beyond operational lease boundaries, yet the full extent of these impacts is unknown and thus neglected in environmental licensing. Here we quantify mining-induced deforestation and investigate the aspects of mining operations, which most likely contribute. We find mining significantly increased Amazon forest loss up to 70 km beyond mining lease boundaries, causing 11,670 km2 of deforestation between 2005 and 2015. This extent represents 9% of all Amazon forest loss during this time and 12 times more deforestation than occurred within mining leases alone. Pathways leading to such impacts include mining infrastructure establishment, urban expansion to support a growing workforce, and development of mineral commodity supply chains. Mining-induced deforestation is not unique to Brazil; to mitigate adverse impacts of mining and conserve tropical forests globally, environmental assessments and licensing must considered both on- and off-lease sources of deforestation

Interactions among Amazon land use, forests and climate: prospects for a near-term forest tipping point

Some model experiments predict a large-scale substitution of Amazon forest by savannah-like vegetation by the end of the twenty-first century. Expanding global demands for biofuels and grains, positive feedbacks in the Amazon forest fire regime and drought may drive a faster process of forest degradation that could lead to a near-term forest dieback. Rising worldwide demands for biofuel and meat are creating powerful new incentives for agro-industrial expansion into Amazon forest regions. Forest fires, drought and logging increase susceptibility to further burning while deforestation and smoke can inhibit rainfall, exacerbating fire risk. If sea surface temperature anomalies (such as El Niño episodes) and associated Amazon droughts of the last decade continue into the future, approximately 55% of the forests of the Amazon will be cleared, logged, damaged by drought or burned over the next 20 years, emitting 15–26 Pg of carbon to the atmosphere. Several important trends could prevent a near-term dieback. As fire-sensitive investments accumulate in the landscape, property holders use less fire and invest more in fire control. Commodity markets are demanding higher environmental performance from farmers and cattle ranchers. Protected areas have been established in the pathway of expanding agricultural frontiers. Finally, emerging carbon market incentives for reductions in deforestation could support these trends

Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFP) in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado biomes: multi scale governance for Implementing enhanced socio-biodiversity chains

Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFP), contribute to the livelihoods of over 6 million people in Amazon and over 4 million people in the Cerrado biomes. Here we explored data on the socio-ecology of extractivist landscapes at the biome scale in Amazonia and Cerrado in Brazil. We found that there are market chains for 45 and 58 NTFPs in Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado, respectively. Although there is a vast repertoire of empirical data for characterizing sociobiodiversity in Brazil this body of literature is mostly case-study driven, focusing on a very limited number of products and using different methodological approaches. Therefore, although there is a robust research legacy meaningful comparisons are very challenging. So far we have a fragmented view of vegetal extractivist dynamics at the biome scale. Our work contributes to upscale from the socioecology of individual NTFP to the biome scale encompassing a variety of products and its associated livelihoods

Modelling susceptibility of Abrolhos reefs to coral bleaching

Coral reefs suffer many threats, including coral bleaching, which occurs mainly in response to environmental variables such as positive temperature anomalies. However, there is a need to explore potential synergies between environmental and anthropogenic variables. The objective of this work is to use multi-criteria analysis to explore associations between environmental and anthropogenic variables in order to estimate in a spatially explicit way the susceptibility of the different Abrolhos reefs in Bahia, Brazil, to coral bleaching. Our results show that from 2001 to 2016 there was a sharp increase in the reef areas with higher susceptibility to bleaching. While in 2001, 20% of the reef area presented low susceptibility to bleaching and 80% showed medium susceptibility, in 2016, 19% of the area showed medium and 81% showed high susceptibility. 2016 presented the highest susceptibility among the years used in the study, suggesting a higher percentage of bleached colonies, which is corroborated by the fact that this year was considered by NASA and NOAA as the hottest year since 1880. Results also show that bleaching pattern is spatially differentiated. The reefs from the coastal arch of Abrolhos present the greater susceptibility to bleaching. Exception is Timbebas reefs which, although located in the coastal arch, are more similar to the outer arch reefs, wich are less susceptible to bleaching