Abandoning presumptive antimalarial treatment for febrile children aged less than five years--a case of running before we can walk?

Current guidelines recommend that all fever episodes in African children be treated presumptively with antimalarial drugs. But declining malarial transmission in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, declining proportions of fevers due to malaria, and the availability of rapid diagnostic tests mean it may be time for this policy to change. This debate examines whether enough evidence exists to support abandoning presumptive treatment and whether African health systems have the capacity to support a shift toward laboratory-confirmed rather than presumptive diagnosis and treatment of malaria in children under five

The Malaria Atlas Project: Developing Global Maps of Malaria Risk

The primary goal of the recently launched Malaria Atlas Project is to develop the science of malaria cartography

Brands, costs and registration status of antimalarial drugs in the Kenyan retail sector

BACKGROUND: Although an important source of treatment for fevers, little is known about the structure of the retail sector in Africa with regard to antimalarial drugs. This study aimed to assess the range, costs, sources and registration of antimalarial drugs in the Kenyan retail sector. METHODS: In 2002, antimalarial drug registration and trade prices were established by triangulating national registration lists, government gazettes and trade price indices. Data on registration status and trade prices were compared with similar data generated through a retail audit undertaken among 880 randomly sampled retailers in four districts of Kenya. RESULTS: Two hundred and eighteen antimalarial drugs were in circulation in Kenya in 2002. These included 65 "sulfur"-pyrimethamine (sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and sulfalene-pyrimethamine (SP), the first-line recommended drug in 2002) and 33 amodiaquine (AQ, the second-line recommended drug) preparations. Only half of SP and AQ products were registered with the Pharmacy and Poisons Board. Of SP and AQ brands at district level, 40% and 44% were officially within legal registration requirements. 29% of retailers at district level stocked SP and 95% stocked AQ. The retail price of adult doses of SP and AQ were on average 0.38 and 0.76 US dollars, 100% and 347% higher than trade prices from manufacturers and importers. Artemether-lumefantrine, the newly announced first-line recommended antimalarial drug in 2004, was found in less than 1% of all retail outlets at a median cost of 7.6 US dollars. CONCLUSION: There is a need to ensure that all antimalarial drugs are registered with the Pharmacy and Poisons Board to facilitate a more stringent post-marketing surveillance system to ensure drugs are safe and of good quality post-registration

Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China

BACKGROUND Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. METHODS Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June-September and the preceding January-February. RESULTS Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June-September and the preceding January-February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. CONCLUSION Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January-February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January-February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province.This project was supported by a University of Queensland New Research Scientist Start-Up Fund grant. RWS is a Wellcome Trust Principal Research Fellow (#079080) and receives additional support from the Wellcome Trust for the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP, http://www.map.ox.ac.uk)

Use of rapid diagnostic tests in malaria school surveys in Kenya: does their under-performance matter for planning malaria control?

Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are known to yield false-positive results, and their use in epidemiologic surveys will overestimate infection prevalence and potentially hinder efficient targeting of interventions. To examine the consequences of using RDTs in school surveys, we compared three RDT brands used during a nationwide school survey in Kenya with expert microscopy and investigated the cost implications of using alternative diagnostic approaches in identifying localities with differing levels of infection. Overall, RDT sensitivity was 96.1% and specificity was 70.8%. In terms of classifying districts and schools according to prevalence categories, RDTs were most reliable for the 40% categories and least reliable in the 1-4.9% category. In low-prevalence settings, microscopy was the most expensive approach, and RDT results corrected by either microscopy or polymerase chain reaction were the cheapest. Use of polymerase chain reaction-corrected RDT results is recommended in school malaria surveys, especially in settings with low-to-moderate malaria transmission

Competing interests, clashing ideas, and institutionalizing influence: insights into the political economy of malaria control from seven African countries

This article explores how malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa is shaped in important ways by political and economic considerations within the contexts of aid-recipient nations and the global health community. Malaria control is often assumed to be a technically driven exercise: the remit of public health experts and epidemiologists who utilize available data to select the most effective package of activities given available resources. Yet research conducted with national and international stakeholders shows how the realities of malaria control decision-making are often more nuanced. Hegemonic ideas and interests of global actors, as well as the national and global institutional arrangements through which malaria control is funded and implemented, can all influence how national actors respond to malaria. Results from qualitative interviews in seven malaria-endemic countries indicate that malaria decision-making is constrained or directed by multiple competing objectives, including a need to balance overarching global goals with local realities, as well as a need for National Malaria Control Programmes to manage and coordinate a range of non-state stakeholders who may divide up regions and tasks within countries. Finally, beyond the influence that political and economic concerns have over programmatic decisions and action, our analysis further finds that malaria control efforts have institutionalized systems, structures and processes that may have implications for local capacity development

Spatial models for the rational allocation of routinely distributed bed nets to public health facilities in Western Kenya

BACKGROUND: In high to moderate malaria transmission areas of Kenya, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are provided free of charge to pregnant women and infants during routine antenatal care (ANC) and immunization respectively. Quantities of LLINs distributed to clinics are quantified based on a combination of monthly consumption data and population size of target counties. However, this approach has been shown to lead to stock-outs in targeted clinics. In this study, a novel LLINs need quantification approach for clinics in the routine distribution system was developed. The estimated need was then compared to the actual allocation to identify potential areas of LLIN over- or under-allocation in the high malaria transmission areas of Western Kenya. METHODS: A geocoded database of public health facilities was developed and linked to monthly LLIN allocation. A network analysis approach was implemented using the location of all public clinics and topographic layers to model travel time. Estimated travel time, socio-economic and ANC attendance data were used to model clinic catchment areas and the probability of ANC service use within these catchments. These were used to define the number of catchment population who were likely to use these clinics for the year 2015 equivalent to LLIN need. Actual LLIN allocation was compared with the estimated need. Clinics were then classified based on whether allocation matched with the need, and if not, whether they were over or under-allocated. RESULTS: 888 (70%) public health facilities were allocated 591,880 LLINs in 2015. Approximately 682,377 (93%) pregnant women and infants were likely to have attended an LLIN clinic. 36% of the clinics had more LLIN than was needed (over-allocated) while 43% had received less (under-allocated). Increasing efficiency of allocation by diverting over supply of LLIN to clinics with less stock and fully covering 43 clinics that did not receive nets in 2015 would allow for complete matching of need with distribution. CONCLUSION: The proposed spatial modelling framework presents a rationale for equitable allocation of routine LLINs and could be used for quantification of other maternal and child health commodities applicable in different settings. Western Kenya region received adequate LLINs for routine distribution in line with government of Kenya targets, however, the model shows important inefficiencies in the allocation of the LLINs at clinic level