Microsimulation for demography

Background: Microsimulation consists of a set of techniques for estimating characteristics and modelling change in populations of individuals. Aims: To demonstrate how microsimulation can be used by demographers who want to undertake population estimates and projections. Data and methods: We use data from the 2011 United Kingdom (UK) Census of population to create a synthetic population by age, sex and ethnic group. Static and dynamic microsimulations and the visualisation of results are undertaken using the statistical package R. The code and data used in the static and dynamic microsimulation are available via a GitHub repository. Results: A synthetic population in 2011 by age, sex and ethnicity was produced for the East London Borough of Tower Hamlets, estimated from two Census tables. A population projection was produced for each of these age, sex and ethnicity groups to 2021. We used a projection of the Bangladeshi population to visualise population growth by Middle-layer Super Output Area (MSOA) and to produce a population pyramid of estimates in 2021. Conclusions: We argue that microsimulation is an adaptable technique which is well suited to demography, for both population estimation and projection. Although our example is applied to the East London Borough of Tower Hamlets, the approach could be readily applied in Australia, or any other country

Neuromedin U partially mediates leptin-induced hypothalamo-pituitary adrenal (HPA) stimulation and has a physiological role in the regulation of the HPA axis in the rat.

Intracerebroventricular (ICV) administration of the hypothalamic neuropeptide neuromedin U (NMU) or the adipostat hormone leptin increases plasma ACTH and corticosterone. The relationship between leptin and NMU in the regulation of the hypothalamo-pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis is currently unknown. In this study, leptin (1 nM) significantly increased the release of CRH from ex vivo hypothalamic explants by 207 ± 8.4% (P < 0.05 vs. basal), an effect blocked by the administration of anti-NMU IgG. The ICV administration of leptin (10 μg, 0.625 nmol) increased plasma ACTH and corticosterone 20 min after injection [plasma ACTH (picograms per milliliter): vehicle, 63 ± 20, leptin, 135 ± 36, P < 0.05; plasma corticosterone (nanograms per milliliter): vehicle, 285 ± 39, leptin, 452 ± 44, P < 0.01]. These effects were partially attenuated by the prior administration of anti-NMU IgG. Peripheral leptin also stimulated ACTH release, an effect attenuated by prior ICV administration of anti-NMU IgG. We examined the diurnal pattern of hypothalamic NMU mRNA expression and peptide content, plasma leptin, and plasma corticosterone. The diurnal changes in hypothalamic NMU mRNA expression were positively correlated with hypothalamic NMU peptide content, plasma corticosterone, and plasma leptin. The ICV administration of anti-NMU IgG significantly attenuated the dark phase rise in corticosterone [corticosterone (nanograms per milliliter): vehicle, 493 ± 38; NMU IgG, 342 ± 47 (P < 0.05)]. These studies suggest that NMU may play a role in the regulation of the HPA axis and partially mediate leptin-induced HPA stimulation. Copyright © 2006 by The Endocrine Society

A Method of Drusen Measurement Based on the Geometry of Fundus Reflectance

BACKGROUND: The hallmarks of age-related macular degeneration, the leading cause of blindness in the developed world, are the subretinal deposits known as drusen. Drusen identification and measurement play a key role in clinical studies of this disease. Current manual methods of drusen measurement are laborious and subjective. Our purpose was to expedite clinical research with an accurate, reliable digital method. METHODS: An interactive semi-automated procedure was developed to level the macular background reflectance for the purpose of morphometric analysis of drusen. 12 color fundus photographs of patients with age-related macular degeneration and drusen were analyzed. After digitizing the photographs, the underlying background pattern in the green channel was leveled by an algorithm based on the elliptically concentric geometry of the reflectance in the normal macula: the gray scale values of all structures within defined elliptical boundaries were raised sequentially until a uniform background was obtained. Segmentation of drusen and area measurements in the central and middle subfields (1000 μm and 3000 μm diameters) were performed by uniform thresholds. Two observers using this interactive semi-automated software measured each image digitally. The mean digital measurements were compared to independent stereo fundus gradings by two expert graders (stereo Grader 1 estimated the drusen percentage in each of the 24 regions as falling into one of four standard broad ranges; stereo Grader 2 estimated drusen percentages in 1% to 5% intervals). RESULTS: The mean digital area measurements had a median standard deviation of 1.9%. The mean digital area measurements agreed with stereo Grader 1 in 22/24 cases. The 95% limits of agreement between the mean digital area measurements and the more precise stereo gradings of Grader 2 were -6.4 % to +6.8 % in the central subfield and -6.0 % to +4.5 % in the middle subfield. The mean absolute differences between the digital and stereo gradings 2 were 2.8 +/- 3.4% in the central subfield and 2.2 +/- 2.7% in the middle subfield. CONCLUSIONS: Semi-automated, supervised drusen measurements may be done reproducibly and accurately with adaptations of commercial software. This technique for macular image analysis has potential for use in clinical research

Constrained evolution drives limited influenza diversity

H3N2 influenza A viruses have been widely circulating in human populations since the pandemic of 1968. A striking feature of the evolutionary development of this strain has been its 'canalized' nature, with narrow evolutionary trees dominated by long trunks with few branching, or bifurcation events and a consequent lack of standing diversity at any single point. This is puzzling, as one might expect that the strong human immune response against the virus would create an environment encouraging more diversity, not less. Previous models have used various assumptions in order to account for this finding. A new analysis published in BMC Biology suggests that this processive evolution down a single path can be recapitulated by a relatively simple model incorporating only two primary parameters - the mutation rate of the virus, and the immunological distance created by each mutation - so long as these parameters are within a particular narrow but biologically plausible range

The development of a classification system for inland aquatic ecosystems in South Africa

A classification system is described that was developed for inland aquatic ecosystems in South Africa, including wetlands. The six-tiered classification system is based on a top-down, hierarchical  classification of aquatic ecosystems, following the functionally-oriented hydrogeomorphic (HGM)  approach to classification but incorporating structural attributes at the lower levels of the hierarchy. At Level 1, a distinction is made between inland, estuarine and shallow marine systems using the degree of connectivity to the open ocean as the key discriminator. Inland systems are characterised by the  complete absence of marine exchange and/or tidal influence. At Level 2, inland systems are grouped according to the most appropriate spatial framework for the particular application. At Level 3, four  primary Landscape Units are distinguished (Valley floor, Slope, Plain, Bench) on the basis of the  topographic position within which a particular inland aquatic ecosystem is situated, in recognition of the influence that the landscape setting has over hydrological and hydrodynamic processes acting within an aquatic ecosystem. Level 4 identifies HGM Units, defined primarily according to landform, hydrological characteristics and hydrodynamics. The following primary HGM Units (or HGM Types), which represent the main units of analysis for the classification system, are distinguished at Level 4A: (1) River; (2) Floodplain Wetland; (3) Channelled Valley-Bottom Wetland; (4) Unchannelled Valley-Bottom Wetland; (5) Depression; (6) Seep; (7) Wetland Flat. Secondary discriminators are applied at Level 5 to classify the hydrological regime of an HGM Unit, and Descriptors at Level 6 to categorise a range of biophysical attributes. The HGM Unit at Level 4 and the Hydrological Regime at Level 5 together constitute a Functional Unit, which represents the focal point of the classification system. The utility of the  classification system is ultimately dependent on the level to which ecosystem units are classified, which is in turn constrained by the type and extent of information available.Keywords: freshwater ecosystems, hydrogeomorphic (HGM) units, inland water ecosystems,  wetlands, wetland classification syste

Determinants of treatment-related paradoxical reactions during anti-tuberculosis therapy: a case control study

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory response following initial improvement with anti-tuberculosis (TB) treatment has been termed a paradoxical reaction (PR). HIV co-infection is a recognised risk, yet little is known about other predictors of PR, although some biochemical markers have appeared predictive. We report our findings in an ethnically diverse population of HIV-infected and uninfected adults. METHODS: Prospective and retrospective clinical and laboratory data were collected on TB patients seen between January 1999-December 2008 at four UK centres selected to represent a wide ethnic and socio-economic mix of TB patients. Data on ethnicity and HIV status were obtained for all individuals. The associations between other potential risk factors and PR were assessed in a nested case-control study. All PR cases were matched two-to-one to controls by calendar time and centre. RESULTS: Of 1817 TB patients, 82 (4.5 %, 95 % CI 3.6-5.5 %) were identified as having a PR event. The frequency of PR was 14.4 % (18/125; 95 % CI 8.2-20.6 %) and 3.8 % (64/1692; 2.9-4.7) for HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals respectively. There were no differences observed in PR frequency according to ethnicity, although the site was more likely to be pulmonary in those of black and white ethnicity, and lymph node disease in those of Asian ethnicity. In multivariate analysis of the case-control cohort, HIV-positive patients had five times the odds of developing PR (aOR = 5.05; 95 % CI 1.28-19.85, p = 0.028), whilst other immunosuppression e.g. diabetes, significantly reduced the odds of PR (aOR = 0.01; 0.00-0.27, p = 0.002). Patients with positive TB culture had higher odds of developing PR (aOR = 6.87; 1.31-36.04, p = 0.045) compared to those with a negative culture or those in whom no material was sent for culture. Peripheral lymph node disease increased the odds of a PR over 60-fold 4(9.60-431.25, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: HIV was strongly associated with PR. The increased potential for PR in people with culture positive TB suggests that host mycobacterial burden might be relevant. The increased risk with TB lymphadenitis may in part arise from the visibility of clinical signs at this site. Non-HIV immunosuppression may have a protective effect. This study highlights the difficulties in predicting PR using routinely available demographic details, clinical symptoms or biochemical markers

Protein-protein interaction based on pairwise similarity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Protein-protein interaction (PPI) is essential to most biological processes. Abnormal interactions may have implications in a number of neurological syndromes. Given that the association and dissociation of protein molecules is crucial, computational tools capable of effectively identifying PPI are desirable. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective method to detect PPI based on pairwise similarity and using only the primary structure of the protein. The PPI based on Pairwise Similarity (PPI-PS) method consists of a representation of each protein sequence by a vector of pairwise similarities against large subsequences of amino acids created by a shifting window which passes over concatenated protein training sequences. Each coordinate of this vector is typically the E-value of the Smith-Waterman score. These vectors are then used to compute the kernel matrix which will be exploited in conjunction with support vector machines.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>To assess the ability of the proposed method to recognize the difference between "<it>interacted</it>" and "<it>non-interacted</it>" proteins pairs, we applied it on different datasets from the available yeast <it>saccharomyces cerevisiae </it>protein interaction. The proposed method achieved reasonable improvement over the existing state-of-the-art methods for PPI prediction.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Pairwise similarity score provides a relevant measure of similarity between protein sequences. This similarity incorporates biological knowledge about proteins and it is extremely powerful when combined with support vector machine to predict PPI.</p