Development and validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT).

Existing risk stratification tools have limitations and clinical experience suggests they are not used routinely. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a preoperative risk stratification tool to predict 30-day mortality after non-cardiac surgery in adults by analysis of data from the observational National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) Knowing the Risk study

Anxiety, Movement Kinematics, and Visual Attention in Elite-Level Performers

We tested the predictions of Attentional Control Theory (ACT) by examining the effect of anxiety on attention control and the subsequent influence on both performance effectiveness and performance efficiency within a perceptual-motor context. A sample (N = 16) of elite shotgun shooters was tested under counterbalanced low (practice) and high (competition) anxiety conditions. A head-mounted, corneal reflection system allowed point of gaze to be calculated in relation to the scene, while motion of the gun was evaluated using markers placed on the barrel which were captured by two stationary cameras and analyzed using optical tracking software. The quiet eye (QE) duration and onset were analyzed along with gun barrel displacement and variability; performance outcome scores (successful vs. unsuccessful) were also recorded. QE (Vickers, 1996) is defined as the final fixation or tracking gaze that is located on a specific location/object in the visual display for a minimum of 100 ms. Longer QE durations have been linked to successful performance in previous research involving aiming tasks. Participants demonstrated shorter quiet eye durations, and less efficient gun motion, along with a decreased performance outcome (fewer successful trials) under high compared with low anxiety conditions. The data support the predictions of ACT with anxiety disrupting control processes such that goal-directed attention was compromised, leading to a significant impairment in performance effectiveness

The Influence of Ambiguity and Uncertainty on Wishful Thinking

People are confronted with situations where they have to make choices and judgments every day. In making decisions, people may have a preference for one option over another, and the wishful thinking effect describes their increased optimism and inflation of the likelihood of that option happening. This phenomena has been illustrated in a variety of different contexts, including sporting events and drawing cards from a deck. Further research into the wishful thinking effect illustrates that the greatest amount of this desirability bias is exhibited in situations where the most uncertainty is present. This study expands upon previous research by including the variable of ambiguity, or “uncertainty about uncertainty”. I hypothesized that in situations that were more ambiguous, participants would display a greater amount of wishful thinking. To test this, I manipulated the uncertainty, ambiguity, and desirability of two-color square grids and asked participants to make predictions about which color they believed the computer would choose at random. Contrary to my hypothesis, I found that the greater amount of ambiguity, the less wishful thinking they exhibited, and in conditions where there was no ambiguity, participants exhibited the greatest amount of wishful thinking

Skipping Years and Scribal Errors: Kaqchikel Maya timekeeping in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth centuries

Adrian Recinos's correlation of Kaqchikcl Maya and Spanish dates in the Annals of the Kaqchikels contains n umerous errors. and there are several scribal and calculation errors in how both the 260-day and 400-day Kaqchikel Maya calendars were used within the manuscript. These are dating problems that stem from errors by the scribes in their attempt to adapt to a European counting and documentation system and their inexperience with the Kaqchikel Maya calendars. In addition, unique citation marks and two scribal errors shed light on the existence of earlier documents and subsequent effects on the later time counts of the Kaqchikcl Maya calendar system. This paper adjusts the previous correlation by Recinos and extends it from 1 570 until 1603. Moreover, by highlighting and correcting the internal errors, this paper offers a caveat to scholars when reconstructing the histories, events, and social relations of past Mesoamerican peoples and scripts without regard for internal errors

Sample Size Bias In Judgments Of Perceptual Averages

Previous research has shown that people exhibit a sample size bias when judging the average of a set of stimuli on a single dimension. The more stimuli there are in the set, the greater people judge the average to be. This effect has been demonstrated reliably for judgments of the average likelihood that groups of people will experience negative, positive, and neutral events (Price, 2001; Price, Smith, & Lench, 2006)and also for estimates of the mean of sets of numbers (Smith & Price, 2010). The present research focuses on whether this effect is observed for judgments of average on a perceptual dimension. In 5 experiments we show that people’s judgments of the average size of the squares in a set increase as the number of squares in the set increases. This effect occurs regardless of whether the squares in each set are presentedsimultaneously or sequentially; whether the squares in each set are different sizes or all the same size; and whether the response is a rating of size, an estimate of area, or a comparative judgment. These results are consistent with a priming account of the sample size bias, in which the sample size activates arepresentation of magnitude that directly biases the judgment of average

Endothelial Nitric Oxide Synthase Mediates Cutaneous Vasodilation During Local Heating And Is Attenuated In Middle-Aged Human Skin

Local skin heating is used to assess microvascular function in clinical populations because NO is required for full expression of the response; however, controversy exists as to the precise NO synthase (NOS) isoform producing NO. Human aging is associated with attenuated cutaneous vasodilation but little is known about the middle aged, an age cohort used for comparison with clinical populations. We hypothesized that endothelial NOS (eNOS) is the primary isoform mediating NO production during local heating, and eNOS-dependent vasodilation would be reduced in middle-aged skin. Vasodilation was induced by local heating (42°C) and during acetylcholine dose- response (ACh-DR: 0.01, 0.1, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0, 50.0, 100.0 mmol/l) protocols. Four microdialysis fibers were placed in the skin of 24 men and women; age cohorts were 12 middle-aged (53 ± 1 yr) and 12 young (23 ± 1 yr). Sites served as control, nonselective NOS inhibited [NG-nitro-l-arginine methyl ester (l-NAME)], inducible NOS (iNOS) inhibited (1400W), and neuronal NOS (nNOS) inhibited (N?-propyl-l-arginine). After full expression of the local heating response, l-NAME was perfused at all sites. Cutaneous vascular conductance was measured and normalized to maximum (%CVCmax: Nitropress). l-NAME reduced %CVCmax at baseline, all phases of the local heating response, and at all ACh concentrations compared with all other sites. iNOS inhibition reduced the initial peak (53 ± 2 vs. 60 ± 2%CVCmax; P 0.05). These data suggest that eNOS mediates the production of NO during local heating and that cutaneous vasodilation is attenuated in middle-aged skin

The Relationship Between Anxiety And Risk Taking Is Moderated By Ambiguity

By definition, risk taking involves uncertainty surrounding potential outcomes. However, risky decisions can vary in the amount of ambiguity about the likelihood of each outcome occurring. The current study tested the hypothesis that the amount of ambiguity in risky-decisions would moderate the relationship between risk taking and anxiety. In this study, participants completed individual difference measures and then a version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) with either high or low ambiguity about the likelihood of a negative outcome. As hypothesized, higher levels of anxiety predicted less risk taking in the high ambiguity version of the BART, but anxiety and risk taking were unrelated to one another in the low ambiguity version. This study demonstrates that in order to understand the relationship between anxiety and risk taking, ambiguity level must be taken into account. Furthermore, this finding provides support for cognitive models of anxiety suggesting that anxious individuals interpret negative outcomes as more likely to occur than less anxious individuals