40 research outputs found

    External validation and calibration of IVFpredict:A national prospective cohort study of 130,960 in vitro fertilisation Cycles

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    © 2015 Smith et al. Background Accurately predicting the probability of a live birth after in vitro fertilisation (IVF) is important for patients, healthcare providers and policy makers. Two prediction models (Templeton and IVFpredict) have been previously developed from UK data and are widely used internationally. The more recent of these, IVFpredict, was shown to have greater predictive power in the development dataset. The aim of this study was external validation of the two models and comparison of their predictive ability. Methods and Findings 130,960 IVF cycles undertaken in the UK in 2008-2010 were used to validate and compare the Templeton and IVFpredict models. Discriminatory power was calculated using the area under the receiver-operator curve and calibration assessed using a calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The scaled modified Brier score, with measures of reliability and resolution, were calculated to assess overall accuracy. Both models were compared after updating for current live birth rates to ensure that the average observed and predicted live birth rates were equal. The discriminative power of both methods was comparable: the area under the receiver-operator curve was 0.628 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.625-0.631) for IVFpredict and 0.616 (95% CI: 0.613-0.620) for the Templeton model. IVFpredict had markedly better calibration and higher diagnostic accuracy, with calibration plot intercept of 0.040 (95% CI: 0.017-0.063) and slope of 0.932 (95% CI: 0.839 - 1.025) compared with 0.080 (95% CI: 0.044-0.117) and 1.419 (95% CI: 1.149-1.690) for the Templeton model. Both models underestimated the live birth rate, but this was particularly marked in the Templeton model. Updating the models to reflect improvements in live birth rates since the models were developed enhanced their performance, but IVFpredict remained superior. Conclusion External validation in a large population cohort confirms IVFpredict has superior discrimination and calibration for informing patients, clinicians and healthcare policy makers of the probability of live birth following IVF

    Same or different? A comparison of anthropometry, physical fitness and perceptual motor characteristics in male and female youth soccer players

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    © 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Objectives: Little is known about the key performance characteristics of female players throughout adolescence, and how they compares to male players. The aim of this study was to compare performance assessments for male and female youth soccer players aged 9-18 years. Methods: Anthropometry, physical fitness, motor competence, dribbling performance and decision-making were assessed in 77 female and 182 male athletes from three developmental stages (sampling stage: 9-11y; specialisation stage: 12-14y; and investment stage: 15-18y). Results: MANOVA revealed significant interaction effects for age and sex on anthropometry, motor competence & physical fitness (p<0.001, η2p=0.131-0.216), while only main effects of sex and age were revealed for decision-making and dribbling (p<0.001, η2p=0.053-0.250). Females had better mean scores for most variables in the sampling stage, whereas males in the investment stage outperformed the females. Greater performance scores for decision-making and dribbling were evident for males at all ages. These results reveal that male and female soccer players’ generic performance-related characteristics differ very little at a young age, whereas performance in soccer-specific assessments do. Conclusions: Hence, this study argues that in order to maximise the size of talent pools in soccer and increase skill development, young male and female players could train and play together until the end of the sampling stage (~12y)

    Prevalence and risk factors of depressive symptoms in a Canadian palliative home care population: a cross-sectional study

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    Background: Depression in palliative care patients is important because of its intrinsic burden and association with elevated physical symptoms, reduced immunity and increased mortality risk. Identifying risk factors associated with depression can enable clinicians to more readily diagnose it, which is important since depression is treatable. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to determine the prevalence of depressive symptoms and risk factors associated with them in a large sample of palliative home care patients. Methods: The data come from interRAI Palliative Care assessments completed between 2006 and 2012. The sample (n = 5144) consists of adults residing in Ontario (Canada), receiving home care services, classified as palliative, and not experiencing significant cognitive impairment. Logistic regression identified the risk factors associated with depressive symptoms. The dependent variable was the Depression Rating Scale (DRS) and the independent variables were functional indicators from the interRAI assessment and other variables identified in the literature. We examined the results of the complete case and multiple imputation analyses, and found them to be similar. Results:The prevalence of depressive symptoms was 9.8%. The risk factors associated with depressive symptoms were (pooled estimates, multiple imputation): low life satisfaction (OR = 3.01 [CI = 2.37-3.82]), severe and moderate sleep disorders (2.56 [2.05-3.19] and 1.56 [1.18-2.06]), health instability (2.12 [1.42-3.18]), caregiver distress 2.01 [1.62-2.51]), daily pain (1.73 [1.35-2.22]), cognitive impairment (1.45 [1.13-1.87]), being female (1.37 [1.11-1.68]), and gastrointestinal symptoms (1.27 [1.03-1.55]). Life satisfaction mediated the effect of prognostic awareness on depressive symptoms. Conclusions: The prevalence of depressive symptoms in our study was close to the median of 10-20% reported in the palliative care literature, suggesting they are present but by no means inevitable in palliative patients. Most of the factors associated with depressive symptoms in our study are amenable to clinical intervention and often targeted in palliative care programs. Designing interventions to address them can be challenging, however, requiring careful attention to patient preferences, the spectrum of comorbid conditions they face, and their social supports. Life satisfaction was one of the strongest factors associated with depressive symptoms in our study, and is likely to be among the most challenging to address

    X-ray diffraction at the National Ignition Facility

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    We report details of an experimental platform implemented at the National Ignition Facility to obtain in situ powder diffraction data from solids dynamically compressed to extreme pressures. Thin samples are sandwiched between tamper layers and ramp compressed using a gradual increase in the drive-laser irradiance. Pressure history in the sample is determined using high-precision velocimetry measurements. Up to two independently timed pulses of x rays are produced at or near the time of peak pressure by laser illumination of thin metal foils. The quasi-monochromatic x-ray pulses have a mean wavelength selectable between 0.6 Å and 1.9 Å depending on the foil material. The diffracted signal is recorded on image plates with a typical 2θ x-ray scattering angle uncertainty of about 0.2° and resolution of about 1°. Analytic expressions are reported for systematic corrections to 2θ due to finite pinhole size and sample offset. A new variant of a nonlinear background subtraction algorithm is described, which has been used to observe diffraction lines at signal-to-background ratios as low as a few percent. Variations in system response over the detector area are compensated in order to obtain accurate line intensities; this system response calculation includes a new analytic approximation for image-plate sensitivity as a function of photon energy and incident angle. This experimental platform has been used up to 2 TPa (20 Mbar) to determine the crystal structure, measure the density, and evaluate the strain-induced texturing of a variety of compressed samples spanning periods 2–7 on the periodic table
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