The Adaptive Metropolis algorithm as a tool for model selection given irregular and imperfect time-series data

Oceanographic and other ecological observations often yield irregular time-series of data, including substantial uncertainties. Models, which express quantitatively our hypotheses about the underlying processes, are useful and in many cases essential tools for interpreting such observations. However, given the uncertainties in both the data and models, rigorous model-data comparison is a daunting task. Here I will present details from a previously published example (Smith et al. J. Plankton Res. 38, doi: 10.1093/plankt/fbv038, 2016) using the Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithm (Haario et al. Bernoulli 7, p. 223-242, 2001) to combine oceanic time-series observations with plankton ecosystem modelling. Time-series observations consisted of nutrients, chlorophyll, and primary production, from the K2S1 project (https://ebcrpa.jamstec.go.jp/k2s1/en/). The Bayesian statistical foundation of the AM algorithm allows for systematically combining: 1) prior knowledge of parameter values, 2) irregular time-series data of different types, each with its own uncertainties, and 3) different model formulations. The algorithm generates an ensemble of model simulations tuned to match the range of observations. It thus provides: 1) quantitative metrics for determining which model formulation is best supported by the available data (i.e., model selection), 2) posterior distributions of model parameter values and corresponding model outputs, and 3) uncertainty estimates (from Gibbs sampling) of the model-data mismatch for each observation type, respectively. Such Bayesian approaches provide a systematic means of quantifying uncertainties and evaluating competing hypotheses given irregular time-series data. This is important for interpreting large, modern data sets consisting of multiple data types, each having different units and associated uncertainties. It also works well with complex models having non-linear dynamics. However, even these computationally efficient statistical methods require thousands to many millions of model simulations, depending on data quality and the number of parameters being optimized. Until recently this has limited their use to 0-D models, but fast modern computers have recently made it possible to apply them with 1-D ocean models as well (Chen and Smith. Geosci. Model Dev., doi: 10.5194/gmd-11-467-2018?, 2018), expanding their potential for studying the combined effects of physical, ecological, and biogeochemical processes.XMAS-IV Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences (Xiamen, China, January 6-9, 2019

北太平洋に棲むプランクトンの多様性と生産力

2018年度JAMSTEC横浜研究所一般公開立ち寄りセミナー（2018年10月27日, 海洋研究開発機構横浜研究所

Ceramic wall reliefs for church interiors and exteriors

The purpose of this thesis is to execute a series of five ceramic wall reliefs. These reliefs will be made abstract through the use of symbols and will attempt to give connotative ecclesiatic meaning in church surroundings

Profiles of Pre-Service Teacher Education : an Investigation into the Nature of Selected Exemplary Programs in Jamaica and Michigan

Problem. The education system in this 21st century is faced with numerous challenges that, quite often, leave administrators and classroom teachers bewildered in their quest for effective solutions. In light of these challenges, this study investigated three exemplary pre-service teacher education programs in Jamaica and Michigan in order to provide an account of how these are structured in different contexts of tertiary institutions and, in addition, to identify how these programs ensure that their graduates are prepared to function effectively in today’s schools. Method. A qualitative case study design was used in this study. Five categories of stakeholders in the three institutions were interviewed regarding their perception and expectations of pre-service teacher education in general as well as in the context of their program. The responses from these persons were described in narrative form then analyzed and compared based on the similarities and differences that existed among them. The analysis led to the emergence of various themes across the three institutions, and these were used to draw conclusions relative to the structure of pre-service teacher education. Results. There are certain distinguishing features of exemplary/effective pre-service teacher education programs whether they are university- or college-based. Programs of this sort will bear eight basic features: (a) coherent program vision, (b) cultural competence, (c) collaborative partnership, (d) contextualization, (e) quality standards, (f) well- planned and implemented field experiences, (g) continuous assessment, (h) experienced committed faculty, and (i) a harmonious blend of theory and practice. These features enhanced the performance of graduates from these institutions. Conclusions. To be effective, pre-service teacher education programs have to prepare prospective teachers to adequately meet the challenges o f teaching in the schools and classrooms of today. The programs’ structure may vary according to their institutions’ guiding principles, beliefs, and vision o f teaching and learning. However, there are certain basic features that will characterize all programs that are operating to prepare the caliber of teachers that the society demands. To effect change, quality teachers are needed, and to produce quality teachers, quality preparation is a necessity

The mirror within the mirror: Reflections on multiculturalism, theory and practice.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the ways in which adult education graduate students\u27 perceptions of race, class, gender and sexual orientation were transformed by the end of graduate adult education courses which included readings, reflection, discussions and other activities designed to foster self-awareness, critical reflection and cultural sensitivity

Leadership in Organizations-A Book Review

Book Revie

Repositioning the Culture of Power: Advocating for Systemic Change in Public Affairs Education

The present study sets out to characterize and analyze difficulties that typically face faculty of color who teach at Predominantly White Institutions (PWIs). Using personal narratives of junior faculty at a PWI, we explore the themes of shifting identity and marginality for faculty of color as these intersect with the presentation of public selves in university settings. This exploration is consistent with development of the themes of intersectionality and multiplicity in the work of Rivera and Ward in their Spring, 2008 Social Equity and Diversity symposium (2008). We as authors were initially unsure whether the effort to analyze concerns surrounding multiple identities in a PWI was an act of empowerment, or a strategic response to a work setting where some refused to recognize us as we defined ourselves. Building on this framing question and a review of pertinent literature, we set out to explore how the institutional context shapes our identities as faculty of color. Ultimately, we argue that, in addition to creating inclusive strategies for faculty of color at this level, in order to empower them the PWI must also engage in a critique of the culture of power that still prevails in higher-education institutions