Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantication for an Epidemic Model

We examine estimation of the parameters of Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) models in the context of least squares. We review the use of asymptotic statistical theory and sensitivity analysis to obtain measures of uncertainty for estimates of the model parameters and the basic reproductive number (R0 )—an epidemiologically significant parameter grouping. We find that estimates of different parameters, such as the transmission parameter and recovery rate, are correlated, with the magnitude and sign of this correlation depending on the value of R0. Situations are highlighted in which this correlation allows R0 to be estimated with greater ease than its constituent parameters. Implications of correlation for parameter identifiability are discussed. Uncertainty estimates and sensitivity analysis are used to investigate how the frequency at which data is sampled affects the estimation process and how the accuracy and uncertainty of estimates improves as data is collected over the course of an outbreak. We assess the informativeness of individual data points in a given time series to determine when more frequent sampling (if possible) would prove to be most beneficial to the estimation process. This technique can be used to design data sampling schemes in more general contexts

Decay estimates for variable coefficient wave equations in exterior domains

In this article we consider variable coefficient, time dependent wave equations in exterior domains. We prove localized energy estimates if the domain is star-shaped and global in time Strichartz estimates if the domain is strictly convex.Comment: 15 pages. In the new version, some typos are fixed and a minor correction was made to the proof of Lemma 1

Discovery of a Metal-Line Absorber Associated with a Local Dwarf Starburst Galaxy

We present optical and near-infrared images, H I 21 cm emission maps, optical spectroscopy, and Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph ultraviolet spectroscopy of the QSO/galaxy pair SBS 1122+594/IC 691. The QSO sight line lies at a position angle of 27 degrees from the minor axis of the nearby dwarf starburst galaxy IC 691 (cz_gal = 1204+-3 km/s, L_B ~ 0.09 L*, current star formation rate = 0.08-0.24 solar masses per year) and 33 kpc (6.6 arcmin) from its nucleus. We find that IC 691 has an H I mass of M_HI = (3.6+-0.1) x 10^8 solar masses and a dynamical mass of M_dyn = (3.1+-0.5) x 10^10 solar masses. The UV spectrum of SBS 1122+594 shows a metal-line (Ly-alpha + C IV) absorber near the redshift of IC 691 at cz_abs = 1110+-30 km/s. Since IC 691 is a dwarf starburst and the SBS 1122+594 sight line lies in the expected location for an outflowing wind, we propose that the best model for producing this metal-line absorber is a starburst wind from IC 691. We place consistent metallicity limits on IC 691 ([Z/Zsun] ~ -0.7) and the metal-line absorber ([Z/Zsun] < -0.3). We also find that the galaxy's escape velocity at the absorber location is v_esc = 80+-10 km/s and derive a wind velocity of v_w = 160+-50 km/s. Thus, the evidence suggests that IC 691 produces an unbound starburst wind that escapes from its gravitational potential to transport metals and energy to the surrounding intergalactic medium.Comment: 31 pages, 8 figures; AJ in press; a version with high resolution figures can be downloaded from http://casa.colorado.edu/~keeney/research/papers/IC691.pd

Cow-Calf Producer Interest in Retained Ownership

The beef industry’s share of domestic meat demand continues to decline, as increasing vertical coordination in pork and poultry contribute to these industries’ ability to offer convenient, consistent, and less expensive products. For such vertical coordination to be effective, incentives must be properly aligned so that those responsible for making the most important investments for system profitability are appropriately compensated. This study demonstrates that cow-calf producers who invest in quality registered cattle and those who are interested in incorporating feedlot and carcass data into herd management decisions are also more interested in retained ownership.beef cattle, property rights theory, retained ownership, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Q13,

Quantifying the Drivers of Star Formation on Galactic Scales. I. The Small Magellanic Cloud

We use the star formation history of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) to place quantitative limits on the effect of tidal interactions and gas infall on the star formation and chemical enrichment history of the SMC. The coincident timing of two recent (< 4 Gyr) increases in the star formation rate and SMC/Milky Way(MW) pericenter passages suggests that global star formation in the SMC is driven at least in part by tidal forces due to the MW. The Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) is the other potential driver of star formation, but is only near the SMC during the most recent burst. The poorly constrained LMC-SMC orbit is our principal uncertainty. To explore the correspondence between bursts and MW pericenter passages further, we model star formation in the SMC using a combination of continuous and tidally-triggered star formation. The behavior of the tidally-triggered mode is a strong inverse function of the SMC-MW separation (preferred behavior ~ r^-5, resulting in a factor of ~100 difference in the rate of tidally-triggered star formation at pericenter and apocenter). Despite the success of these closed-box evolutionary models in reproducing the recent SMC star formation history and current chemical abundance, they have some systematic shortcomings that are remedied by postulating that a sizable infall event (~ 50% of the total gas mass) occured about 4 Gyr ago. Regardless of whether this infall event is included, the fraction of stars in the SMC that formed via a tidally triggered mode is > 10% and could be as large as 70%.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Factors Affecting Option Premium Values

4 pp.Many factors affect option premium values. This publication list these factors and gives brief explanations of them

Full stress tensor measurement using colour centres in diamond

Stress and strain are important factors in determining the mechanical, electronic, and optical properties of materials, relating to each other by the material's elasticity or stiffness. Both are represented by second rank field tensors with, in general, six independent components. Measurements of these quantities are usually achieved by measuring a property that depends on the translational symmetry and periodicity of the crystal lattice, such as optical phonon energies using Raman spectroscopy, the electronic band gap using cathodoluminescence, photoelasticity via the optical birefringence, or Electron Back Scattering Diffraction (EBSD). A reciprocal relationship therefore exists between the maximum sensitivity of the measurements and the spatial resolution. Furthermore, of these techniques, only EBSD and off-axis Raman spectroscopy allow measurement of all six components of the stress tensor, but neither is able to provide full 3D maps. Here we demonstrate a method for measuring the full stress tensor in diamond, using the spectral and optical polarization properties of the photoluminescence from individual nitrogen vacancy (NV) colour centres. We demonstrate a sensitivity of order 10 MPa, limited by local fluctuations in the stress in the sample, and corresponding to a strain of about 10^-5, comparable with the best sensitivity provided by other techniques. By using the colour centres as built-in local sensors, the technique overcomes the reciprocal relationship between spatial resolution and sensitivity and offers the potential for measuring strains as small as 10^-9 at spatial resolution of order 10 nm. Furthermore it provides a straightforward route to volumetric stress mapping. Aside from its value in understanding strain distributions in diamond, this new approach to stress and strain measurement could be adapted for use in micro or nanoscale sensors.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures - supplementary informations included in appendi

The Resilience Factor: What Extension Can Learn from Adolescents Coping with Parental Cancer

Using a developmental systems framework and grounded theory methods, the study reported here describes the psychosocial experiences of late adolescents coping with parental cancer. Results suggest three primary psychosocial developmental influences, including multilevel influences, coping strategies to maintain control, and responses to uncertainty and anticipatory grief. Identity and intimacy were the two most salient psychosocial tasks. The central unifying concept of resilience was the primary psychosocial developmental outcome that resulted from coping with parental cancer during late adolescence. This finding illuminates the need for Extension to expand its focus on positive outcomes that can result from coping with life crises during adolescence