Rational plunging and the option value of sequential investment : the case of petroleum exploration

Any investor in assets that can be exploited sequentially faces a tradeoff between diversification and concentration. Loading a portfolio with correlated assets has the potential to inflate variance, but also creates information spillovers and real options that may augment total return and mitigate variance. The task of optimal portfolio design is therefore to strike an appropriate balance between diversification and concentration. We examine this tradeoff in the context of petroleum exploration. Using a simple model of geological dependence, we show that the value of learning options creates incentives for explorationists to plunge into dependence; i.e., to assemble portfolios of highly correlated exploration prospects. Risk-neutral and risk-averse investors are distinguished not by the plunging phenomenon, but by the threshold level of dependence that triggers such behavior. Aversion to risk does not imply aversion to dependence. Indeed the potential to plunge may be larger for risk-averse investors than for risk-neutral investors. To test the empirical validity of our theory, we examine the concentration of bids tendered in petroleum lease sales. We find that higher levels of risk aversion are associated with a revealed preference for more highly concentrated (i.e., less diversified) portfolios

Diversification and the value of exploration portfolios

Conventional wisdom holds that dependence among geological prospects increases exploration risk. However, dependence also creates the option to truncate exploration if early results are discouraging. We show that the value of this option creates incentives for explorationists to plunge into dependence; i.e., to assemble portfolios of highly correlated exploration prospects. Risk-neutral and risk-averse investors are distinguished not by the plunging phenomenon, but by the threshold level of dependence that triggers such behavior. Aversion to risk does not imply aversion to dependence. Indeed the potential to plunge may be larger for risk-averse investors than for risk-neutral investors

Managing a portfolio of real options : sequential exploration of dependent prospects

We consider the impact of sequential investment and active management on the value of a portfolio of real options. The options are assumed to be interdependent, in that exercise of any one is assumed to produce, in addition to some intrinsic value based on an underlying asset, further information regarding the values of other options based on related assets. We couch the problem in terms of oil exploration, where a discrete number of related geological prospects are available for drilling, and management₂s objective is to maximize the expected value of the combined exploration campaign. Management₂s task is complex because the expected value of the investment sequence depends on the order in which options are exercised. A basic conclusions is that, although dependence increases the variance of potential outcomes, it also increases the expected value of the embedded portfolio of options and magnifies the value of optimal management. Stochastic dynamic programming techniques may be used to establish the optimal sequence. Given certain restrictions on the risk structure, however, we demonstrate that the optimal dynamic program can be implemented by policies that are relatively simple to execute. In other words, we provide sufficient conditions for the optimality of intuitive decision rules, like "biggest first," "most likely first," or "greatest intrinsic value first," and we develop exact analytic expressions for the implied value of the portfolio. This permits the value of active management to be assessed directly. Finally, the sufficient conditions we identify are shown to be consistent with plausible exploration risk structures

Rabies in Iowa and the Upper Midwest: What a Rural Practitioner Should Know

A thorough history of rabies in the United States has been written by Steele,1 who begins by writing that the first reference to rabies in the United States occurred, in dogs, in Virginia and North Carolina, in 1753 and 1762, respectively. An outbreak that occurred in Boston and other North American towns in 1768 is considered the first major epizootic in North America. Canine madness, as it was called, raged allover colonial North America throughout the late 1700\u27s. Rabies reappeared in the eastern US in 1810 and in Ohio assumed an epizootic character affecting dogs, foxes, and wolves. Steele goes on to report that, following the Civil War, rabies was widespread across most of the USA. Mad dogs were reported in many urban as well as rural areas. Sylvatic rabies was recognized in the eastern US in the 18th century, and in the 19th century the disease was seen in foxes throughout the eastern part of the country

Universal Data System to Increase Staff Buy-In

Although PBIS has been implemented in many schools across the state, there is still a concern of making the system universal to help increase staff buy-in. Therefore, it is crucial that schools include the entire staff with the behavior expectations for all students in the school. It is also important for students to be rewarded for putting forth their best effort. Research shows that there are several products that can be purchased to allow a school to collect the data, reward points or implement incentives. However, there are cost efficient ways of implementing a school-wide data system. One strategy is to utilize the Google Suite for educators. Applications such as Forms and Sheets can be linked to provide instant access to data in real time for students and staff. Data presentations via Slides allow school teachers and administrators to analyze data to better serve their students. Teacher driven data collection also supports PBIS Tier I, Tier II and Tier III processes when implemented with fidelity. In our proposal presentation, we will discuss the importance of having a universal data system to evaluate the efficacy of PBIS practices. We will address how Google forms, Sheets, and Slides can be utilized to create a school-wide data system and can foster buy-in from staff, which can benefit the entire climate and culture of the school

Planners in the Future City: Using City Information Modelling to Support Planners as Market Actors

Recently, Adams and Tiesdell (2010), Tewdwr-Jones (2012) and Batty (2013) have outlined the importance of information and intelligence in relation to the mediation and management of land, property and urban consumers in the future city. Traditionally, the challenge for urban planners was the generation of meaningful and timely information. Today, the urban planners’ challenge is no longer the timely generation of urban data, rather, it is in relation to how so much information can be exploited and integrated successfully into contemporary spatial planning and governance. The paper investigates this challenge through a commentary on two City Information Modelling (CIM) case studies at Northumbria University, UK. This commentary is grouped around four key themes, Accessibility and availability of data, accuracy and consistency of data, manageability of data and integration of data. It is also designed to provoke discussion in relation to the exploitation and improvement of data modelling and visualisation in the urban planning discipline and to contribute to the literature in related fields. The paper concludes that the production of information, its use and modelling, can empower urban planners as they mediate and contest state-market relations in the city. However, its use should be circumspect as data alone does not guarantee delivery of a sustainable urban future, rather, emphasis and future research should be placed upon interpretation and use of data

Evidence-based implementation practices applied to the intensive treatment of eating disorders: Summary of research and illustration of principles using a case example

Implementation of evidence‐based practices (EBPs) in intensive treatment settings poses a major challenge in the field of psychology. This is particularly true for eating disorder (ED) treatment, where multidisciplinary care is provided to a severe and complex patient population; almost no data exist concerning best practices in these settings. We summarize the research on EBP implementation science organized by existing frameworks and illustrate how these practices may be applied using a case example. We describe the recent successful implementation of EBPs in a community‐based intensive ED treatment network, which recently adapted and implemented transdiagnostic, empirically supported treatment for emotional disorders across its system of residential and day‐hospital programs. The research summary, implementation frameworks, and case example may inform future efforts to implement evidence‐based practice in intensive treatment settings.Published versio

Opportunities for earlier diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children: A case-control study using routinely collected primary care records.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) suggests diagnostic delays may contribute to children developing diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis. We sought to quantify opportunities for earlier diagnosis of T1DM in primary care. METHODS: A matched case-control study of children (0-16 years) presenting to UK primary care, examining routinely collected primary care consultation types and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) warning signs in the 13 weeks before diagnosis. RESULTS: Our primary analysis included 1920 new T1DM cases and 7680 controls. In the week prior to diagnosis more cases than controls had medical record entries (663, 34.5% vs 1014, 13.6%, odds ratio 3.46, 95% CI 3.07-3.89; p<0.0001) and the incidence rate of face-to-face consultations was higher in cases (mean 0.32 vs 0.11, incidence rate ratio 2.90, 2.61-3.21; p<0.0001). The preceding week entries were found in 330 cases and 943 controls (17.2% vs 12.3%, OR 1.49, 1.3-1.7, p<0.0001), but face-to-face consultations were no different (IRR 1.08 (0.9-1.29, p=0.42)). INTERPRETATION: There may be opportunities to reduce time to diagnosis for up to one third of cases, by up to two weeks. Diagnostic opportunities might be maximised by measures that improve access to primary care, and public awareness of T1DM

Whey Protein-Enriched and Carbohydrate-Rich Breakfasts Attenuate Insulinemic Responses to an ad libitum Lunch Relative to Extended Morning Fasting:A Randomized Crossover Trial

Background: Typical breakfast foods are rich in carbohydrate, so they not only elevate blood glucose during the morning, but also elicit a second-meal effect that can attenuate blood glucose responses in the afternoon. Objectives: To determine whether a reduced-carbohydrate protein-enriched breakfast can elicit similar effects on glucose control later in the day but without hyperglycemia in the morning. Methods: In a randomized crossover design, 12 healthy men and women (age 22 ± 2 y, BMI 24.1 ± 3.6 kg·m −2; Mean ± SD) completed 3 experimental conditions. In all conditions, participants consumed an ad libitum lunch at 1200 ± 1 h but differed in terms of whether they had fasted all morning (control) or had consumed a standardized porridge breakfast at 0900 ± 1 h (320 ± 50 kcal; prescribed relative to resting metabolic rate) that was either carbohydrate-rich (50 ± 10 g CHO) or protein-enriched (that is, isoenergetic substitution of carbohydrate for 15 g whey protein isolate). Results: The protein-enriched breakfast reduced the morning glycemic response (iAUC 87 ± 36 mmol·L −1·180 min) relative to the carbohydrate-rich breakfast (119 ± 37 mmol·L −1·180 min; P = 0.03). Despite similar energy intake at lunch in all 3 conditions (protein-enriched 769 ± 278 kcal; carbohydrate-rich 753 ± 223 kcal; fasting 790 ± 227 kcal), postlunch insulinemic responses were markedly attenuated when breakfasts had been consumed that were either protein-enriched (18.0 ± 8.0 nmol·L −1·120 min; P = 0.05) or carbohydrate-rich (16.0 ± 7.7 nmol·L −1·120 min; P = 0.005), relative to when lunch was consumed in an overnight fasted state (26.9 ± 13.5 nmol·L −1·120 min). Conclusions: Breakfast consumption attenuates insulinemic responses to a subsequent meal, achieved with consumption of energy-matched breakfasts typically high in carbohydrates or enriched with whey protein isolate relative to extended morning fasting. Trial registration number: NCT03866720 (clinicaltrials.gov).</p