Nitrogen restricts future sub-Arctic treeline advance in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

Arctic environmental change induces shifts in high-latitude plant community composition and stature with implications for Arctic carbon cycling and energy exchange. Two major components of change in high-latitude ecosystems are the advancement of trees into tundra and the increased abundance and size of shrubs. How future changes in key climatic and environmental drivers will affect distributions of major ecosystem types is an active area of research. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) offer a way to investigate multiple and interacting drivers of vegetation distribution and ecosystem function. We employed the LPJ-GUESS tree-individual-based DVM over the Torneträsk area, a sub-Arctic landscape in northern Sweden. Using a highly resolved climate dataset to downscale CMIP5 climate data from three global climate models and two 21st-century future scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), we investigated future impacts of climate change on these ecosystems. We also performed model experiments where we factorially varied drivers (climate, nitrogen deposition and [CO2]) to disentangle the effects of each on ecosystem properties and functions. Our model predicted that treelines could advance by between 45 and 195 elevational metres by 2100, depending on the scenario. Temperature was a strong driver of vegetation change, with nitrogen availability identified as an important modulator of treeline advance. While increased CO2 fertilisation drove productivity increases, it did not result in range shifts of trees. Treeline advance was realistically simulated without any temperature dependence on growth, but biomass was overestimated. Our finding that nitrogen cycling could modulate treeline advance underlines the importance of representing plant-soil interactions in models to project future Arctic vegetation change

Impacts of large-scale Sahara solar farms on global climate and vegetation cover

Large‐scale photovoltaic solar farms envisioned over the Sahara Desert can meet the world's energy demand while increasing regional rainfall and vegetation cover. However, adverse remote effects resulting from atmospheric teleconnections could offset such regional benefits. We use state‐of‐the‐art Earth system model simulations to evaluate the global impacts of Sahara solar farms. Our results indicate a redistribution of precipitation causing Amazon droughts and forest degradation, and global surface temperature rise and sea‐ice loss, particularly over the Arctic due to increased polarward heat transport, and northward expansion of deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere. We also identify reduced El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Niño variability and enhanced tropical cyclone activity. Comparison to proxy inferences for a wetter and greener Sahara ∼6,000 years ago appear to substantiate these results. Understanding these responses within the Earth system provides insights into the site selection concerning any massive deployment of solar energy in the world's deserts

Modelling past and future peatland carbon dynamics across the pan-Arctic

The majority of northern peatlands were initiated during the Holocene. Owing to their mass imbalance, they have sequestered huge amounts of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. Although recent syntheses have filled some knowledge gaps, the extent and remoteness of many peatlands pose challenges to developing reliable regional carbon accumulation estimates from observations. In this work, we employed an individual- and patch-based dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) with peatland and permafrost functionality to quantify long-term carbon accumulation rates in northern peatlands and to assess the effects of historical and projected future climate change on peatland carbon balance. We combined published datasets of peat basal age to form an up-to-date peat inception surface for the pan-Arctic region which we then used to constrain the model. We divided our analysis into two parts, with a focus both on the carbon accumulation changes detected within the observed peatland boundary and at pan-Arctic scale under two contrasting warming scenarios (representative concentration pathway—RCP8.5 and RCP2.6). We found that peatlands continue to act as carbon sinks under both warming scenarios, but their sink capacity will be substantially reduced under the high-warming (RCP8.5) scenario after 2050. Areas where peat production was initially hampered by permafrost and low productivity were found to accumulate more carbon because of the initial warming and moisture-rich environment due to permafrost thaw, higher precipitation and elevated CO2 levels. On the other hand, we project that areas which will experience reduced precipitation rates and those without permafrost will lose more carbon in the near future, particularly peatlands located in the European region and between 45 and 55°N latitude. Overall, we found that rapid global warming could reduce the carbon sink capacity of the northern peatlands in the coming decades

Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model

Arctic cyclones, as a prevalent feature in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system, have large impacts on the atmospheric transport of heat and moisture and deformation and drifting of sea ice. Previous studies based on historical and future simulations with climate models suggest that Arctic cyclogenesis is affected by the Arctic amplification of global warming, for instance, a growing land-sea thermal contrast. We thus hypothesize that biogeophysical feedbacks (BF) over the land, here mainly referring to the albedo-induced warming in spring and evaporative cooling in summer, may have the potential to significantly change cyclone activity in the Arctic. Based on a regional Earth system model (RCA-GUESS) which couples a dynamic vegetation model and a regional atmospheric model and an algorithm of cyclone detection and tracking, this study assesses for the first time the impacts of BF on the characteristics of Arctic cyclones under three IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our analysis focuses on the spring- and summertime periods, since previous studies showed BF are the most pronounced in these seasons. We find that BF induced by changes in surface heat fluxes lead to changes in land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric stability. This, in turn, noticeably changes the atmospheric baroclinicity and, thus, leads to a change of cyclone activity in the Arctic, in particular to the increase of cyclone frequency over the Arctic Ocean in spring. This study highlights the importance of accounting for BF in the prediction of Arctic cyclones and the role of circulation in the Arctic regional Earth system

Declining global leaf nitrogen content : smart resource use by flexible plants?

The availability of data on plant traits and function has expanded markedly in the last decade. Despite this, vegetation model development remains a data-limited activity. Modellers are alert to unifying principles that can substitute rules–demonstrated empirically and supported by theory–for sparse species-level data. This helps the models, which are often applied at large (regional to global) scales, to be more general, tractable and gain adequate predictive skill to be useful. In this light, the evidence that canopy nitrogen content may be a predictable outcome of smart investment of a limited resource by functionally flexible plants is compelling

Land Carbon Cycle Modeling: Matrix Approach, Data Assimilation, and Ecological Forecasting

Carbon moves through the atmosphere, through the oceans, onto land, and into and between various ecosystems. This cycling has a large effect on climate - changing geographic patterns of rainfall and the frequency of extreme weather. The impact of changes in global carbon cycling are altered as the use of fossil fuels add carbon to the cycle. This book addresses the crucial question of how to assess, evaluate, and estimate the potential impact of the additional carbon to the global carbon cycle. The contributors describe a set of models for exploring ecological questions regarding changes in carbon cycling; provide background for developing new models; employs data assimilation techniques for model improvement; and do real- or near-time ecological forecasting for decision support. This book strives to balance theoretical considerations, technical details, and applications of ecosystem modeling for research, assessment, and crucial decision making

Potential carbon sequestration in Japanese forests during the first commitment period of the Kyoto protocol

The role of forests in absorbing atmospheric carbon has been recognized under the Kyoto Protocol, which allows signatory countries to use forests as a mitigation option. Although several studies have estimated carbon stock changes in Japanese forests, most only estimate changes through 1995 or ignore carbon stock changes in natural forests. This study is the first attempt to estimate carbon stock changes in Japanese forests from 1966 to 2012, the final year of the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period. Forest land use and growing stock data were analyzed. Then, two models of forest land use change and growing stock were developed. Analytical results showed that most natural forest loss resulted from conversion to plantation forestland, while a minor portion was converted to other forms of land use. Carbon stock in Japanese forests increased from 857.3 TgC in 1966 to 1594.2 TgC in 2012, representing an increase of 16.0 TgC year-1 over the same period. During the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, annual carbon sequestration was estimated at 15.3 TgC, of which about 77.1% was sequestered in plantation forests. Only carbon sequestration in specially managed forests is credited under the Marrakesh Accord; thus, eligible carbon is expected to be lower. When data of specially managed forests become available, further study of eligible carbon sequestration is necessary because it could provide a baseline for decision making about the use of carbon sinks for carbon emission mitigation

A consumer's guide to evenness indices

Many indices have been proposed for measuring species evenness in ecological communities, but there is no consensus on which are best. We assemble criteria for an appropriate index for the evenness of a biological sample. The most important criterion is that evenness should be independent of species richness. Twelve previously proposed indices and variants are considered, and two apparently new indices. Four indices are recommended as joint best buys: A) If symmetry between minor and abundant species is not important, or if it is required that the index be less affected by minor species: 1) If it is essential that the index be able to reach a minimum of zero with any particular number of species, or if the shape of the index response to an evenness gradient is important: E(1 D) (based on a common form of Simpson's index). 2) If good mid-range behaviour is desired: E' (proposed by Camargo). B) If equal sensitivity to minor and abundant species is required: 1) If the shape of the index response to an evenness gradient is not important, the clear winner is: E(Q) (a new index). 2) If the shape is important: E(van) (another new index). The overall recommendation for general use is E(van)

Too early to infer a global NPP decline since 2000

The global terrestrial carbon cycle plays a pivotal role in regulating the atmospheric composition of greenhouse gases. It has recently been suggested that the upward trend in net primary production (NPP) seen during the 1980's and 90's has been replaced by a negative trend since 2000 induced by severe droughts mainly on the southern hemisphere. Here we compare results from an individual-based global vegetation model to satellite-based estimates of NPP and top-down reconstructions of net biome production (NBP) based on inverse modelling of observed CO2 concentrations and CO2 growth rates. We find that simulated NBP exhibits considerable covariation on a global scale with interannual fluctuations in atmospheric CO2. Our simulations also suggest that droughts in the southern hemisphere may have been a major driver of NPP variations during the past decade. The results, however, do not support conjecture that global terrestrial NPP has entered a period of drought-induced decline

Modelling regional climate change effects on potential natural ecosystems in Sweden

This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) – HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 – were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCMbased and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st century. The economy-oriented A2 emission scenario would lead to higher NPP and stronger carbon sinks according to the simulations than the environment-oriented B2 scenario