Future-proofing conservation: applying systematic conservation planning to prevent extinction under climate and land use change

Humans have been reshaping the environment of Earth for thousands of years. However, the intensity of anthropogenic pressures has rapidly increased in recent decades, pushing an evergreater number of species towards extinction. The primary driver of modern extinctions is habitat loss, while climate change is projected to become the leading cause of biodiversity loss in the future. To mitigate these impacts and reverse these trends, nations have committed to halt the extinction of threatened species by mid-century, and to protect 30% of global land and sea by 2030 (known as the ‘30 by 30’ target). There is now an urgent need to understand how such targets can be achieved in a way that is deliverable, effective, and resilient to future climate and land use change. To answer this question, my thesis considers how systematic conservation planning approaches can optimise conservation interventions both in situ (such as protected area planning) and ex situ (such as conservation of threatened species in zoos). I show that both existing protected areas and current zoo collections must evolve significantly if they are to avoid being outpaced by anthropogenic environmental change. First, I model the impact of climate change on most of the world’s terrestrial vertebrate species (n = 24,598), and identify spatial and phylogenetic shifts in the distribution of threatened biodiversity globally. Using these data, I highlight spatial priorities for area-based conservation, achieving 30 by 30 in a manner that maximises the long-term conservation of threatened evolutionary history under environmental change. I then turn to ex situ conservation in zoos, finding that collections must adapt significantly if they are to conserve the taxa most threatened by climate and land use change. As zoos must house appealing species that drive visitation rates, I then investigate the traits that underpin species attractiveness to zoo visitors, with highly active, visible mammals proving the most attractive. I use these results to highlight opportunities to leverage species appeal and maximise investment in conservation. Finally, I bring this information together and apply, for the first time, conservation optimisation algorithms to zoo collection planning at global and regional scales. Such approaches can increase the protection of threatened evolutionary history by approximately an order of magnitude, both in situ and ex situ, relative to existing protected areas and zoo collections, respectively. These results pose both a challenge and an opportunity to the conservation community, highlighting both the scale of adaptation required, but also the huge potential conservation benefits that could be achieved, even as anthropogenic climate and land use change intensify

Associations between early childhood temperament clusters and later pychosocial adjustment

The study adopted a person-centered approach to examine whether clusters of children could be identified on the basis of temperament profiles assessed on four occasions from infancy to early childhood, and if so whether differing temperament clusters were associated with subsequent differences in behavior problems, social skills, and school adjustment in middle and late childhood. Parent, teacher, and self-report data were obtained from a large community-based cohort sample of Australian children, followed prospectively from infancy to late childhood. Four temperament clusters were identified. Children in the clusters labeled as reactive/inhibited and poor attention regulation tended to have higher levels of later behavior problems than children in clusters labeled nonreactive/outgoing and high attention regulation. Results suggested that a person-oriented clustering approach can identify children on the basis of early temperament who are at greater risk for behavioral, academic, and social difficulties four to eight years later.<br /

901-25 The Paradox of Donor Stimulation of Endothelial-induced Smooth Muscle Growth

Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) is the major cause of long-term morbidity and mortality in cardiac transplant recipients. It appears to be related to immune damage to the coronary endothelial cells, resulting in intimal proliferation. In order to delineate the mechanisms by which CAY can occur, a co-culture model of human endothelial cells (EC) and smooth muscle cells (SMC) obtained from the donor at the time of organ procurement was utilized. These cells were separated by collagenase digestion, and cultured for four passages. EC and SMC were then grown to confluence in the separate chambers of a co-culture plate separated by a 0.45 micron Millipore filter. Preserved lymphocytes (LYMPH) obtained from the donor and pooled blood lymphocytes from the recipient 3-4 weeks following transplant were added to the EC well so as to cause an immunologic stimulation of the EC. None of the recipients were exposed to monoclonal or polyclonal antibodies to lymphocytes. All cultures and assays were done in triplicate. Results are as follows:Patient#% Increase in donor lymph H3thymidinep ValueDonor 1+510.04Donor 2+450.05Donor 3+1040.05Donor 4+250.01Donor 5-19NSThe donor EC/donor LYMPH co-culture stimulated SMC growth measured by H3thymidine incorporation in 4 of 5 patients. The donor EC/recipient LYMPH co-culture did not result in significant SMC H3thymidine incorporation.ConclusionThese paradoxical findings of a lack in significant SMC proliferation in the recipient stimulated donor cells continue to raise questions in relation to the effects of circulating lymphocytes on the development of cardiac allograft vasculopathy

В портфеле редакции

OBJECTIVE Our aim is to compare the effect of type 2 diabetes on recurrent major cardiovascular events (MCVE) for patients with symptomatic vascular disease at different locations. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 6,841 patients from the single-center, prospective Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) cohort study from Utrecht, the Netherlands, with clinically manifest vascular disease with (n = 1,155) and without (n = 5,686) type 2 diabetes were monitored between 1996 and 2013. The effect of type 2 diabetes on recurrent MCVE was analyzed with Cox proportional hazards models, stratified for disease location (cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, abdominal aortic aneurysm, coronary artery disease, or polyvascular disease, defined as >= 2 vascular locations). RESULTS Five-year risks for recurrent MCVE were 9% in cerebrovascular disease, 9% in peripheral artery disease, 20% in those with an abdominal aortic aneurysm, 7% in coronary artery disease, and 21% in polyvascular disease. Type 2 diabetes increased the risk of recurrent MCVE in coronary artery disease (hazard ratio [HR] 1.67; 95% CI 1.25-2.21) and seemed to increase the risk in cerebrovascular disease (HR 1.36; 95% CI 0.90-2.07), while being no risk factor in polyvascular disease (HR 1.12; 95% CI 0.83-1.50). Results for patients with peripheral artery disease (HR 1.42; 95% CI 0.79-2.56) or an abdominal aortic aneurysm (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.23-3.68) were inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS Type 2 diabetes increased the risk of recurrent MCVE in patients with coronary artery disease, but there is no convincing evidence that it is a major risk factor for subsequent MCVE in all patients with symptomatic vascular disease

Использование растровых графических редакторов для обработки археологических материалов

В данной работе предлагается к рассмотрению компьютерная графика в качестве инструмента для создания стратиграфических чертежей и приводится краткое описание технологии, которая сегодня широко используется при составлении отчетов многих археологических экспедиций в Крыму

The Australian temperament project: the first 30 years

The Australian Temperament Project (ATP) is a longitudinal study of the psychosocial development of a large and representative sample of Australian children born in the state of Victoria, Australia between September 1982 and January 1983.The study aims to trace the pathways to psychosocial adjustment and maladjustment across the lifespan, and to investigate the contribution of personal, family and environmental factors to development and wellbeing.<br /

Достаточные условия стойкости рандомизированных блочных cистем шифрования относительно метода криптоанализа на основе коммутативных диаграмм

Получены достаточные условия отсутствия определенных нетривиальных конгруэнций многоосновных алгебр, описывающих рандомизированные блочные системы шифрования, соответствующие SPN-подобным шифрам или шифрам Фейстеля. Указанные условия исключают возможность применения к таким системам шифрования метода криптоанализа на основе коммутативных диаграмм.Отримано достатні умови відсутності певних нетривіальних конгруенцій багатоосновних універсальних алгебр, що описують рандомізовані блокові системи шифрування, які відповідають SPN-подібним шифрам або шифрам Фейстеля. Зазначені умови виключають можливість застосування до таких систем шифрування методу криптоаналізу на основі комутативних діаграм.Sufficient conditions for the non-existence of certain nontrivial congruences of many-sorted universal algebras, that describe randomized block cipher systems based on the SPN-like ciphers or on Feistel ciphers, are obtained. These conditions guarantee that such cipher systems are secure against commutative diagram attacks

The relation between body fat distribution, plasma concentrations of adipokines and the metabolic syndrome in patients with clinically manifest vascular disease

Introduction: We evaluated the relationship between adipokine plasma concentrations and body fat distribution and the metabolic syndrome. Methods: In a cohort of 1215 patients with clinically manifest vascular disease the relation between subcutaneous adipose tissue, visceral adipose tissue, waist circumference, body mass index and plasma concentrations of adipsin, chemerin, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, migration inhibitory factor, nerve growth factor, resistin, plasma amyloid A1, adiponectin, leptin, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 and hepatic growth factor were cross-sectionally assessed with linear regression and adjusted for age and gender. The relation between adipokines and the metabolic syndrome was cross-sectionally evaluated using logistic regression. An adipokine profile was developed to measure the effect of combined rather than single adipokines. Results: Adiposity was related to higher nerve growth factor, hepatic growth factor, migration inhibitory factor, leptin and adipsin and with lower chemerin, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, resistin, plasma amyloid A1 and adiponectin. The strongest positive relations were between body mass index and adipsin (β 0.247; 95% CI 0.137–0.356) and leptin (β 0.266; 95% CI 0.207–0.324); the strongest negative relations were between body mass index and plasma amyloid A1 (β –0.266; 95% CI –0.386 to –0.146) and visceral adipose tissue and adiponectin (β –0.168; 95% CI –0.226 to –0.111). There was no relation between subcutaneous adipose tissue and adipokines. Odds for the metabolic syndrome were higher with each 1 SD higher hepatic growth factor (OR 1.21; 95% CI 1.06–1.38) and leptin (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.10–1.45) and lower with each 1 SD higher adiponectin (OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.64–0.83) and resistin (OR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74–0.97). The adipokine profile was related to the metabolic syndrome (OR 1.03; 95% CI 1.00–1.06). Conclusion: Plasma concentrations of adipokines are related to obesity and body fat distribution. The relation between adipokine concentrations and the metabolic syndrome is independent of visceral adipose tissue