Dealing with trade-offs in destructive sampling designs for occupancy surveys

Occupancy surveys should be designed to minimise false absences. This is commonly achieved by increasing replication or increasing the efficiency of surveys. In the case of destructive sampling designs, in which searches of individual microhabitats represent the repeat surveys, minimising false absences leads to an inherent trade-off. Surveyors can sample more low quality microhabitats, bearing the resultant financial costs and producing wider-spread impacts, or they can target high quality microhabitats were the focal species is more likely to be found and risk more severe impacts on local habitat quality. We show how this trade-off can be solved with a decision-theoretic approach, using the Millewa Skink Hemiergis millewae from southern Australia as a case study. Hemiergis millewae is an endangered reptile that is best detected using destructive sampling of grass hummocks. Within sites that were known to be occupied by H. millewae, logistic regression modelling revealed that lizards were more frequently detected in large hummocks. If this model is an accurate representation of the detection process, searching large hummocks is more efficient and requires less replication, but this strategy also entails destruction of the best microhabitats for the species. We developed an optimisation tool to calculate the minimum combination of the number and size of hummocks to search to achieve a given cumulative probability of detecting the species at a site, incorporating weights to reflect the sensitivity of the results to a surveyor's priorities. The optimisation showed that placing high weight on minimising volume necessitates impractical replication, whereas placing high weight on minimising replication requires searching very large hummocks which are less common and may be vital for H. millewae. While destructive sampling methods are sometimes necessary, surveyors must be conscious of the ecological impacts of these methods. This study provides a simple tool for identifying sampling strategies that minimise those impacts

The Paleocene – Eocene mangroves of South-eastern Australia: spatial and temporal occurrences across four geological basins

The advent of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a ~ 200 kyr period of global warming ca. 56 Ma, caused sea-levels to rise, transgressing near-coastal environments in South-eastern (SE) Australia over >55,000 km2. During the PETM, warming tropical climates may have extended south to ≥60°S paleolatitude. The PETM in SE Australia is corroborated primarily by stable carbon isotope chemostratigraphy and detailed palynology records in four geological basins. Previous work showed that, in addition to the globally recognised carbon isotope excursion, the PETM interval in coastal SE Australia can be identified using the dual occurrence of the tropical mangrove Nypa palm pollen (Spinizonocolpites prominatus) accompanied by thermophilic marine dinoflagellate cysts (mainly Apectodinium hyperacanthum). We here document a total of twenty-six Gippsland Basin wells that record this Nypa-A.hyperacanthum association in the earliest Eocene Kingfish Formation (Lower Malvacipollis diversus Zone). In the Bass Basin, eight wells record Nypa-A.hyperacanthum association within the Eastern View Group basal Koorkah Formation, or lower part of the Lower M. diversus Zone (earliest Eocene). In the Bass Basin a further thirteen wells with Nypa occurrences near the top of the Cormorant Formation are found, which might be associated with the longer-term warmth of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO, ~53–49 Ma). Government bores and petroleum wells across the Otway Basin record the Nypa-A. hyperacanthum PETM association within the Pember Mudstone Lower M. diversus Zone in twenty-one bores. Nine horizons with Nypa occurrences occur within the Burrungule Member (EECO) at the top of the Dilwyn Formation. In western Tasmania, Nypa occurs in the Sorell Basin and Macquarie Harbour area within the Lower M. diversus Zone. Together, these observations show the remarkable extent of the mangrove-coasts that were established across the mid-high paleolatitudes in SE Australia during the warmest intervals of the Cenozoic, the PETM and EECO