Kantian fractionalization predicts the conflict propensity of the international system

The study of complex social and political phenomena with the perspective and methods of network science has proven fruitful in a variety of areas, including applications in political science and more narrowly the field of international relations. We propose a new line of research in the study of international conflict by showing that the multiplex fractionalization of the international system (which we label Kantian fractionalization) is a powerful predictor of the propensity for violent interstate conflict, a key indicator of the system's stability. In so doing, we also demonstrate the first use of multislice modularity for community detection in a multiplex network application. Even after controlling for established system-level conflict indicators, we find that Kantian fractionalization contributes more to model fit for violent interstate conflict than previously established measures. Moreover, evaluating the influence of each of the constituent networks shows that joint democracy plays little, if any, role in predicting system stability, thus challenging a major empirical finding of the international relations literature. Lastly, a series of Granger causal tests shows that the temporal variability of Kantian fractionalization is consistent with a causal relationship with the prevalence of conflict in the international system. This causal relationship has real-world policy implications as changes in Kantian fractionalization could serve as an early warning sign of international instability.Comment: 17 pages + 17 pages designed as supplementary online materia

Infectivity Enhances Prediction of Viral Cascades in Twitter

Models of contagion dynamics, originally developed for infectious diseases, have proven relevant to the study of information, news, and political opinions in online social systems. Modelling diffusion processes and predicting viral information cascades are important problems in network science. Yet, many studies of information cascades neglect the variation in infectivity across different pieces of information. Here, we employ early-time observations of online cascades to estimate the infectivity of distinct pieces of information. Using simulations and data from real-world Twitter retweets, we demonstrate that these estimated infectivities can be used to improve predictions about the virality of an information cascade. Developing our simulations to mimic the real-world data, we consider the effect of the limited effective time for transmission of a cascade and demonstrate that a simple model for slow but non-negligible decay of the infectivity captures the essential properties of retweet distributions. These results demonstrate the interplay between the intrinsic infectivity of a tweet and the complex network environment within which it diffuses, strongly influencing the likelihood of becoming a viral cascade.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figure

Effects of Wire Material, Deflection, and Interbracket Distance on Burstone Bracket Geometry Force Systems

Objective. This paper aims to quantify the effect of wire material, dimension, and deflection on the most identifiable feature of the six-geometries: the moment dissociation point (force system with no moment on the lesser angled bracket), which may or may not occur at the classically defined geometry IV. Materials and Methods. A six-degree of freedom load cell was used to measure the force systems in different combinations of wire materials, wire dimensions, total angle of bracket, and interbracket distance. Brackets were progressively rotated through Burstone and Koenig’s six geometries and the moment on the right bracket was plotted against the ratio of the angle of the two brackets. Regression analysis was used to determine the angular relationship where the actual moment dissociation point occurred for each variable combination. The moment dissociation points were statistically compared. Results. There were significant differences in the moment dissociation points in the variables studied. A shift in the moment dissociation point toward what is classically considered a geometry III, with lower interbracket distance ratios (IBDr = the ratio of distances a) the higher angle bracket to the bracket slot plane intersection and b) total interbracket distance) with linear materials and low wire deflections was observed. Higher deflections showed a pattern more consistent with the theoretical geometry IV (IBDr 0.33). Superelastic phase transformation at extremely high deflections led to a shift towards a geometry III (lower IBDrs). Conclusions. The moment dissociation point was not always coincident with a geometry IV as classically defined by Burstone and Koenig. Variables including wire material properties, dimension, and wire deflection affect the location of the moment dissociation point to different extents. The classic geometries as defined by Burstone and Koenig are a simplification of a complex wire deflection problem, especially with phase transforming pseudoelastic wires. In clinical situations, where one is attempting to create or predict the force system on brackets, these data should be taken into consideration, especially to avoid inconsistent force systems

Ways to Endure

Ways to Endure is an installation of photographic-based inquiry through light, steel, emulsion, glass and, healing welted skins. Topographic satellite imagery of flood-prone peaks and valleys within my rural home county are abstracted by a Google Earth glitch. Acupuncture needles are a reminder of sorrow and relief and an indicator of boundary and location. The Fresnel lens has a historical responsibility as a beacon, a tool of survival and navigation, originally used to concentrate and project light in lighthouses, and fire starters in survival kits. The Fresnels are fixed in front of intimate portraits to magnify and abstract. This installation of lens and image works to subvert the function and gaze of a traditional photographic lens, the making and presentation of a photograph, and to implicate the viewer within an installation. It offers safety in abstraction

Ways to Endure

Ways to Endure is an installation of photographic-based inquiry through light, steel, emulsion, glass and, healing welted skins. Topographic satellite imagery of flood-prone peaks and valleys within my rural home county are abstracted by a Google Earth glitch. Acupuncture needles are a reminder of sorrow and relief and an indicator of boundary and location. The Fresnel lens has a historical responsibility as a beacon, a tool of survival and navigation, originally used to concentrate and project light in lighthouses, and fire starters in survival kits. The Fresnels are fixed in front of intimate portraits to magnify and abstract. This installation of lens and image works to subvert the function and gaze of a traditional photographic lens, the making and presentation of a photograph, and to implicate the viewer within an installation. It offers safety in abstraction

Stochastic Weighted Graphs: Flexible Model Specification and Simulation

In most domains of network analysis researchers consider networks that arise in nature with weighted edges. Such networks are routinely dichotomized in the interest of using available methods for statistical inference with networks. The generalized exponential random graph model (GERGM) is a recently proposed method used to simulate and model the edges of a weighted graph. The GERGM specifies a joint distribution for an exponential family of graphs with continuous-valued edge weights. However, current estimation algorithms for the GERGM only allow inference on a restricted family of model specifications. To address this issue, we develop a Metropolis--Hastings method that can be used to estimate any GERGM specification, thereby significantly extending the family of weighted graphs that can be modeled with the GERGM. We show that new flexible model specifications are capable of avoiding likelihood degeneracy and efficiently capturing network structure in applications where such models were not previously available. We demonstrate the utility of this new class of GERGMs through application to two real network data sets, and we further assess the effectiveness of our proposed methodology by simulating non-degenerate model specifications from the well-studied two-stars model. A working R version of the GERGM code is available in the supplement and will be incorporated in the gergm CRAN package.Comment: 33 pages, 6 figures. To appear in Social Network