Hierarchical Bayes prediction for the 2008 US Presidential election

In this paper a procedure is developed to derive the predictive density function of a future observation for prediction in a multiple regression model under hierarchical priors for the vector parameter. The derived predictive density function is applied for prediction in a multiple regression model given in Fair (2002) to study the effect of fluctuations in economic variables on voting behavior in U.S. presidential election. Numerical illustrations suggest that the predictive performance of Fair’s model is good under hierarchical Bayes setup, except for the 1992 election. Fair’s model under hierarchical Bayes setup indicates that the forthcoming 2008 US presidential election is likely to be a very close election slightly tilted towards Republicans. It is likely that republicans will get 50.90% vote with probability for win 0.550 in the 2008 US Presidential Election.

Averaged model of modular multilevel converter in rotating DQ frame.

This paper proposes an average model of Modular Multilevel Converter (MMC) in rotating DQ frame. The proposed MMC model has a modular structure and can be linked with other power elements such as AC and DC subsystems. Modelling in DQ frame has numerous advantages over traditional ABC frame in terms of simulation speed and convenience for linearization. The main challenge of developing DQ model of MMC is to deal with the multiplication terms of dynamic equations of MMC. To overcome this complexity, a generic form is first introduced for each product variable mathematical equations of the average MMC model in ABC frame and then the multiplication results are transferred to DQ frame after ignoring the higher harmonics. The detailed model and the proposed DQ average model are implemented in PSCAD/EMTDC. The simulation results of the two models show very good matching which in turn confirms the accuracy of the proposed model. Also, the DQ average model is considerably faster than the detailed and even ABC average models

Sensitivity of Bayes Estimates of Reliability and Reliable Life to a Non Standard Prior

Robustness of Bayes estimate of reliability function and the reliable life by employing Edgeworth-gamma class of priors for the unknown mean and precision of normal population of failure times, have been investigated. The effect of a moderately non-normal prior for Martz and Waller data has been noted to be insignificantly small

Hierarchical Bayes prediction for the 2008 US Presidential election

In this paper a procedure is developed to derive the predictive density function of a future observation for prediction in a multiple regression model under hierarchical priors for the vector parameter. The derived predictive density function is applied for prediction in a multiple regression model given in Fair (2002) to study the effect of fluctuations in economic variables on voting behavior in U.S. presidential election. Numerical illustrations suggest that the predictive performance of Fair’s model is good under hierarchical Bayes setup, except for the 1992 election. Fair’s model under hierarchical Bayes setup indicates that the forthcoming 2008 US presidential election is likely to be a very close election slightly tilted towards Republicans. It is likely that republicans will get 50.90% vote with probability for win 0.550 in the 2008 US Presidential Election

Modular multilevel converter modulation using fundamental switching selective harmonic elimination method.

This paper address the issue of low order harmonics in a modular multilevel converter (MMC). Using fundamental switching selective harmonic elimination (SHE), the control angles are calculated from nonlinear equations by Newton-Raphson method. The selective harmonic elimination equations are solved in such a way that the first switching angle is used to control the magnitude of the fundamental voltage and the remaining angles are used to eliminate the lowest odd, non-triplen harmonics components as they dominate the total harmonic distortion of the converter. The concept is validated using a 9-level detailed model of MMC in PSCAD/EMTDC®. The simulation result shows a good agreement with theoretical analysis and in comparison with conventional sinusoidal pulse width modulation (SPWM), the proposed method, eliminates low order harmonics, leading to a low total harmonic distortion

Radial Distribution Function of an Amorphous Mn-P-C Alloy

An amorphous manganese base alloy having the composition Mn_(0.75)P_(0.15)C_(0.10) was synthesized by rapid quenching from the liquid state. Its structure was studied using x-ray diffraction. The interference function a(K) of this alloy is characterized by a shoulder on the high-angle side of the second peak, a feature which has been previously observed in several other amorphous alloys but not in amorphous Ni-Pt-P. Both the atomic distribution function W(r) as well as the radial distribution function (RDF) [= 411'Y2p(r)) contain a split double peak beyond the first maximum. The radius of the first near-neighbor shell is 2. 63 A, and its coordination number is approximately 12. The ratio of second to first near-neighbor average interatomic distances is 1. 7. A structural model based upon "dense random packing" of Mn atoms with the metalloids P and C filling up some of the interstices may be appropriate for this alloy

Oral Findings in Postmenopausal Women Attending Dental Hospital in Western Part of India

Objectives: To know the nature, incidence and severity of oral manifestations occurring in postmenopausal women. Study design: Oral changes were observed in 365 postmenopausal women and 365 age matched male individuals attending the department of Oral Medicine and Radiology. The patients were asked about complaints of dry mouth, taste and breath changes, mucosal and facial pain and were examined for oral changes such as ulceration, white and red lesions. The results obtained from the study were then correlated with various other similar studies. Results: The important oral findings in postmenopausal women were mucosal burning/pain (25.8%), dry mouth (27.1%), altered taste (3.6%), altered breath (6.3%) and facial pain (3.6%). Oral submucous fibrosis (OSMF) was significantly more common in males (5.5%) as compared to postmenopausal females (1.9%). Conclusion: Results from the present study reveal that oral symptoms are common problems in postmenopausal women. Postmenopausal patients showed significantly more oral changes than the control. These changes could be related to the hormone alterations. Therefore, dentists need to refer postmenopausal women with oral symptoms to a gynaecologist for more careful examinations and medical interventions if necessary

Comparative Analysis of Mechanical and Water Absorption Properties of Nano/micro-sized Alumina Filler Based Glass-Jute Hybrid Composites

In recent years, the addition of nano and micro size filler material for fabricating composite materials are emerging concept through which mechanical properties of the composite can be enhanced. Filler based hybrid polymer composite materials are substituting metallic materials because of their low specific wear rate, high specific strength modulus, and less water absorption. In current work, nano and micro Al2O3 filler based Glass-Jute hybrid composite have been fabricated to study the mechanical properties like hardness, impact test, specific wear rate, and flexural strength for each type of composite sample. Water absorption analysis is also carried under three different fluid media namely normal water, river water and de-ionized water-based Al2O3 nanofluid. Nano filler enriched composite attributed the higher magnitudes of hardness, impact strength, flexural strength and lower value of specific wear rate and water absorption compared to micro and normal composites. However, a nanofiller based composite is more suitable for automotive, aerospace and ship manufacturing industries