Projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018.

As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of vaccination coverage (after deployment). Additionally, we used the time series for 18 prior Ebola outbreaks from 1976 to 2016 to parameterize the Thiel-Sen regression model predicting the outbreak size from the number of observed cases from April 4 to May 27. We used these techniques on probable and confirmed case counts with and without inclusion of suspected cases. Probabilistic projections were scored against the actual outbreak size of 54 EVD cases, using a log-likelihood score. With the stochastic model, using high, low, and zero estimates of vaccination coverage, the median outbreak sizes for probable and confirmed cases were 82 cases (95% prediction interval [PI]: 55, 156), 104 cases (95% PI: 58, 271), and 213 cases (95% PI: 64, 1450), respectively. With the Thiel-Sen regression model, the median outbreak size was estimated to be 65.0 probable and confirmed cases (95% PI: 48.8, 119.7). Among our three mathematical models, the stochastic model with suspected cases and high vaccine coverage predicted total outbreak sizes closest to the true outcome. Relatively simple mathematical models updated in real time may inform outbreak response teams with projections of total outbreak size and duration

Impact of malaria diagnostic choice on monitoring of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence estimates in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and relevance to control programs in high-burden countries

Malaria programs rely upon a variety of diagnostic assays, including rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), microscopy, polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and bead-based immunoassays (BBA), to monitor malaria prevalence and support control and elimination efforts. Data comparing these assays are limited, especially from high-burden countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Using cross-sectional and routine data, we compared diagnostic performance and Plasmodium falciparum prevalence estimates across health areas of varying transmission intensity to illustrate the relevance of assay performance to malaria control programs. Data and samples were collected between March–June 2018 during a cross-sectional household survey across three health areas with low, moderate, and high transmission intensities within Kinshasa Province, DRC. Samples from 1,431 participants were evaluated using RDT, microscopy, PCR, and BBA. P. falciparum parasite prevalence varied between diagnostic methods across all health areas, with the highest prevalence estimates observed in Bu (57.4–72.4% across assays), followed by Kimpoko (32.6–53.2%), and Voix du Peuple (3.1–8.4%). Using latent class analysis to compare these diagnostic methods against an “alloyed gold standard,” the most sensitive diagnostic method was BBA in Bu (high prevalence) and Voix du Peuple (low prevalence), while PCR diagnosis was most sensitive in Kimpoko (moderate prevalence). RDTs were consistently the most specific diagnostic method in all health areas. Among 9.0 million people residing in Kinshasa Province in 2018, the estimated P. falciparum prevalence by microscopy, PCR, and BBA were nearly double that of RDT. Comparison of malaria RDT, microscopy, PCR, and BBA results confirmed differences in sensitivity and specificity that varied by endemicity, with PCR and BBA performing best for detecting any P. falciparum infection. Prevalence estimates varied widely depending on assay type for parasite detection. Inherent differences in assay performance should be carefully considered when using community survey and surveillance data to guide policy decisions

Ebola Virus Neutralizing Antibodies Detectable in Survivors of theYambuku, Zaire Outbreak 40 Years after Infection.

The first reported outbreak of Ebola virus disease occurred in 1976 in Yambuku, Democratic Republic of Congo. Antibody responses in survivors 11 years after infection have been documented. However, this report is the first characterization of anti-Ebola virus antibody persistence and neutralization capacity 40 years after infection. Using ELISAs we measured survivor's immunological response to Ebola virus Zaire (EBOV) glycoprotein and nucleoprotein, and assessed VP40 reactivity. Neutralization of EBOV was measured using a pseudovirus approach and plaque reduction neutralization test with live EBOV. Some survivors from the original EBOV outbreak still harbor antibodies against all 3 measures. Interestingly, a subset of these survivors' serum antibodies could still neutralize live virus 40 years postinitial infection. These data provide the longest documentation of both anti-Ebola serological response and neutralization capacity within any survivor cohort, extending the known duration of response from 11 years postinfection to at least 40 years after symptomatic infection

Nutritional Status Link with Polioseronegativity Among Children from Poliomyelitis Transmission High-Risk Area of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition is identified as a risk-factor for insufficient polioseroconversion in the context of a vaccine-derived polio virus (VDPV) outbreak prone region. To assess the prevalence of malnutrition and its link to poliovirus insufficient immunity, a cross-sectional household survey was conducted in the regions of Haut- Lomami and Tanganyika, DRC. METHODS: In March 2018, we included 968 healthy children aged 6 to 59 months from eight out of 27 districts. Selection of study locations within these districts was done using a stratified random sampling method, where villages were chosen based on habitat characteristics identified from satellite images. Consent was obtained verbally in the preferred language of the participant (French or Swahili) by interviewers who received specific training for this task. Furthermore, participants contributed a dried blood spot sample, collected via finger prick. To assess malnutrition, we measured height and weight, applying WHO criteria to determine rates of underweight, wasting, and stunting. The assessment of immunity to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 through the detection of neutralizing antibodies was carried out at the CDC in Atlanta, USA. RESULTS: Of the study population, we found 24.7% underweight, 54.8% stunted, and 15.4% wasted. With IC95%, underweight (OR=1.50; [1.11-2.03]), and the non-administration of vitamin A (OR=1.96; [1.52-2.54]) were significantly associated with seronegativity to polioserotype 1. Underweight (OR=1.64; [1.20-2.24]) and the non-administration of vitamin A (OR=1.55; [1.20-2.01]) were significantly associated with seronegativity to polioserotype 2. Underweight (OR=1.50; [1.11-2.03]), and the non-administration of vitamin A (OR=1.80. [1.38-2.35]) were significantly associated with seronegativity to polioserotype 3. Underweight (OR=1.68; IC95% [1.10-2.57]) and the non-administration of vitamin A (OR=1.82; IC95% [1.30-2.55]) were significantly associated with seronegativity to all polioserotypes. CONCLUSION: This study reveals a significant association between underweight and polioseronegativity in children. In order to reduce vaccine failures in high-risk areas, an integrated approach by vaccination and nutrition programs should be adopted

Low Varicella Zoster Virus Seroprevalence Among Young Children in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

BackgroundVaricella zoster virus (VZV) causes both varicella (chickenpox) and herpes zoster (shingles) and is associated with significant global morbidity. Most epidemiological data on VZV come from high-income countries, and to date there are limited data on the burden of VZV in Africa.MethodsWe assessed the seroprevalence of VZV antibodies among children in the Democratic Republic of Congo in collaboration with the 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Survey. Dried blood spot samples collected from children 6-59 months of age were run on Dynex™ Technologies Multiplier FLEX® chemiluminescent immunoassay platform to assess serologic response. Multivariate logistic regression was then used to determine risk factors for VZV seropositivity.ResultsSerologic and survey data were matched for 7,195 children 6-59 months of age, among whom 8% were positive and 2% indeterminate for VZV antibodies in weighted analyses. In multivariate analyses, the odds of seropositivity increased with increasing age, increasing socioeconomic status, mother's education level, rural residence, and province (South Kivu, North Kivu, Bandundu, Bas Congo had the highest odds of a positive test result compared with Kinshasa).ConclusionOur data suggest that VZV is circulating in DRC, and seropositivity is low among children 6-59 months. Seropositivity increased with age and varied by other sociodemographic factors, such as geographic location. This study provides the first nationally representative estimates of VZV infection among children in the DRC

High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints.

The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. In this study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys and building footprints to produce up-to-date population estimates. We estimate population totals and age and sex breakdowns with associated uncertainty measures within grid cells of approximately 100 m in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country where the last census was completed in 1984. The model exhibits a very good fit, with an R2 value of 0.79 for out-of-sample predictions of population totals at the microcensus-cluster level and 1.00 for age and sex proportions at the province level. This work confirms the benefits of combining household surveys and building footprints for high-resolution population estimation in countries with outdated censuses

High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints

The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. In this study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys and building footprints to produce up-to-date population estimates. We estimate population totals and age and sex breakdowns with associated uncertainty measures within grid cells of approximately 100 m in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country where the last census was completed in 1984. The model exhibits a very good fit, with an R2 value of 0.79 for out-of-sample predictions of population totals at the microcensus-cluster level and 1.00 for age and sex proportions at the province level. This work confirms the benefits of combining household surveys and building footprints for high-resolution population estimation in countries with outdated censuses.</p

Prediction Model with Validation for Polioseronegativity in Malnourished Children from Poliomyelitis Transmission High-Risk Area of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition is identified as a risk factor for insufficient polio seroconversion in the context of a vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) outbreak-prone region. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), underweight decreased from 31% (in 2001) to 26% (in 2018). Since 2004, VDPV serotype 2 outbreaks (cVDPV2) have been documented and were geographically limited around the Haut-Lomami and Tanganyika Provinces. METHODS: To develop and validate a predictive model for poliomyelitis vaccine response in malnourished infants, a cross-sectional household study was carried out in the Haut-Lomami and Tanganyika provinces. Healthy children aged 6 to 59 months (n=968) were enrolled from eight health zones (HZ) out of 27, in March 2018. We performed a bivariate and multivariate logistics analysis. Final models were selected using a stepwise Wald method, and variables were selected based on the criterion p &lt; 0.05. The association between nutritional variables, explaining polio seronegativity for the three serotypes, was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve). RESULTS: Factors significantly associated with seronegativity to the three polio serotypes were underweight, non-administration of vitamin A, and the age group of 12 to 59 months. The sensitivity was 10.5%, and its specificity was 96.4% while the positive predictive values (PPV) and negative (PNV) were 62.7% and 65.3%, respectively. We found a convergence of the curves of the initial sample and two split samples. Based on the comparison of the overlapping confidence intervals of the ROC curve, we concluded that our prediction model is valid. CONCLUSION: This study proposed the first tool which variables are easy to collect by any health worker in charge of vaccination or in charge of nutrition. It will bring on top, the collaboration between the Immunization and the Nutritional programs in DRC integration policy, and its replicability in other low- and middle-income countries with endemic poliovirus

Poliovirus-Neutralizing Antibody Seroprevalence and Vaccine Habits in a Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Outbreak Region in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2018: The Impact on the Global Eradication Initiative.

Despite the successes in wild-type polio eradication, poor vaccine coverage in the DRC has led to the occurrence of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks. This cross-sectional population-based survey provides an update to previous poliovirus-neutralizing antibody seroprevalence studies in the DRC and quantifies risk factors for under-immunization and parental knowledge that guide vaccine decision making. Among the 964 children between 6 and 35 months in our survey, 43.8% (95% CI: 40.6-47.0%), 41.1% (38.0-44.2%), and 38.0% (34.9-41.0%) had protective neutralizing titers to polio types 1, 2, and 3, respectively. We found that 60.7% of parents reported knowing about polio, yet 25.6% reported knowing how it spreads. Our data supported the conclusion that polio outreach efforts were successfully connecting with communities-79.4% of participants had someone come to their home with information about polio, and 88.5% had heard of a polio vaccination campaign. Additionally, the odds of seroreactivity to only serotype 2 were far greater in health zones that had a history of supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) compared to health zones that did not. While SIAs may be reaching under-vaccinated communities as a whole, these results are a continuation of the downward trend of seroprevalence rates in this region