Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models

The inference for hidden Markov chain models in which the structure is a multiple-equation macroeconomic model raises a number of difficulties that are not as likely to appear in smaller models. One is likely to want to allow for many states in the Markov chain without allowing the number of free parameters in the transition matrix to grow as the square of the number of states but also without losing a convenient form for the posterior distribution of the transition matrix. Calculation of marginal data densities for assessing model fit is often difficult in high-dimensional models and seems particularly difficult in these models. This paper gives a detailed explanation of methods we have found to work to overcome these difficulties. It also makes suggestions for maximizing posterior density and initiating Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations that provide some robustness against the complex shape of the likelihood in these models. These difficulties and remedies are likely to be useful generally for Bayesian inference in large time-series models. The paper includes some discussion of model specification issues that apply particularly to structural vector autoregressions with a Markov-switching structure.

Potential of MODIS EVI and surface temperature for directly estimating per-pixel ecosystem C fluxes

We tested the potential of estimating per-pixel gross primary production (GPP) directly from the MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and respiration directly from MODIS surface temperature (MOD11). Carbon flux data were obtained from 10 eddy covariance tower sites representing a wide range of North American vegetations. The correlation between across-site tower GPP and EVI was comparable (r = 0.77) to that between tower GPP and MOD17-GPP (r = 0.73), suggesting that EVI could be used to provide reasonably accurate direct estimates of GPP on a truly per-pixel basis. There was also a strong relationship (r2 = 0.67) between respiration and surface temperature of dense vegetation, suggesting that estimation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) may be possible with relatively simple pixel based models, at least for some vegetation types

Potential of MODIS ocean bands for estimating CO2 flux from terrestrial vegetation: A novel approach

A physiologically-driven spectral index using two ocean-color bands of MODIS satellite sensor showed great potential to track seasonally changing photosynthetic light use efficiency (LUE) and stress-induced reduction in net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial vegetation. Based on these findings, we developed a simple ‘‘continuous field’’ model solely based on remotely sensed spectral data that could explain 88% of variability in flux-tower based daily NPP. For the first time, such a procedure is successfully tested at landscape level using satellite imagery. These findings highlight the unexplored potential of narrow-band satellite sensors to improve estimates of spatial and temporal distribution in terrestrial carbon flux

Ablation of the renal stroma defines its critical role in nephron progenitor and vasculature patterning

The renal stroma is an embryonic cell population located in the cortex that provides a structural framework as well as a source of endothelial progenitors for the developing kidney. The exact role of the renal stroma in normal kidney development hasn't been clearly defined. However, previous studies have shown that the genetic deletion of Foxd1, a renal stroma specific gene, leads to severe kidney malformations confirming the importance of stroma in normal kidney development. This study further investigates the role of renal stroma by ablating Foxd1-derived stroma cells themselves and observing the response of the remaining cell populations. A Foxd1cre (renal stroma specific) mouse was crossed with a diphtheria toxin mouse (DTA) to specifically induce apoptosis in stromal cells. Histological examination of kidneys at embryonic day 13.5-18.5 showed a lack of stromal tissue, mispatterning of renal structures, and dysplastic and/or fused horseshoe kidneys. Immunofluorescence staining of nephron progenitors, vasculature, ureteric epithelium, differentiated nephron progenitors, and vascular supportive cells revealed that mutants had thickened nephron progenitor caps, cortical regions devoid of nephron progenitors, aberrant vessel patterning and thickening, ureteric branching defects and migration of differentiated nephron structures into the medulla. The similarities between the renal deformities caused by Foxd1 genetic knockout and Foxd1DTA mouse models reveal the importance of Foxd1 in mediating and maintaining the functional integrity of the renal stroma. © 2014 Hum et al

Inattentive Consumers in Markets for Services

In an experiment on markets for services, we find that consumers are likely to stick to default tariffs and achieve suboptimal outcomes. We find that inattention to the task of choosing a better tariff is likely to be a substantial problem in addition to any task and tariff complexity effect. The institutional setup on which we primarily model our experiment is the UK electricity and gas markets, and our conclusion is that the new measures by the UK regulator Ofgem to improve consumer outcomes are likely to be of limited impact

Multicolored Stain-Free Histopathology with Coherent Raman Imaging

Conventional histopathology with hematoxylin & eosin (H&E) has been the gold standard for histopathological diagnosis of a wide range of diseases. However, it is not performed in vivo and requires thin tissue sections obtained after tissue biopsy, which carries risk, particularly in the central nervous system. Here we describe the development of an alternative, multicolored way to visualize tissue in real-time through the use of coherent Raman imaging (CRI), without the use of dyes. CRI relies on intrinsic chemical contrast based on vibrational properties of molecules and intrinsic optical sectioning by nonlinear excitation. We demonstrate that multicolor images originating from $CH_2$ and $CH_3$ vibrations of lipids and protein, as well as two-photon absorption of hemoglobin, can be obtained with subcellular resolution from fresh tissue. These stain-free histopathological images show resolutions similar to those obtained by conventional techniques, but do not require tissue fixation, sectioning or staining of the tissue analyzed.Chemistry and Chemical Biolog

Impact of metabolic comorbidity on the association between body mass index and heatlh-related quality of life: a Scotland-wide cross-sectional study of 5,608 participants

<p/>Background: The prevalence of obesity is rising in Scotland and globally. Overall, obesity is associated with increased morbidity, mortality and reduced health-related quality of life. Studies suggest that "healthy obesity" (obesity without metabolic comorbidity) may not be associated with morbidity or mortality. Its impact on health-related quality of life is unknown. <p/>Methods: We extracted data from the Scottish Health Survey on self-reported health-related quality of life, body mass index (BMI), demographic information and comorbidity. SF-12 responses were converted into an overall health utility score. Linear regression analyses were used to explore the association between BMI and health utility, stratified by the presence or absence of metabolic comorbidity (diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia or cardiovascular disease), and adjusted for potential confounders (age, sex and deprivation quintile). <p/>Results: Of the 5,608 individuals, 3,744 (66.8%) were either overweight or obese and 921 (16.4%) had metabolic comorbidity. There was an inverted U-shaped relationship whereby health utility was highest among overweight individuals and fell with increasing BMI. There was a significant interaction with metabolic comorbidity (p = 0.007). Individuals with metabolic comorbidty had lower utility scores and a steeper decline in utility with increasing BMI (morbidly obese, adjusted coefficient: -0.064, 95% CI -0.115, -0.012, p = 0.015 for metabolic comorbidity versus -0.042, 95% CI -0.067, -0.018, p = 0.001 for no metabolic comorbidity). <p/>Conclusions: The adverse impact of obesity on health-related quality of life is greater among individuals with metabolic comorbidity. However, increased BMI is associated with reduced health-related quality of life even in the absence of metabolic comorbidity, casting doubt on the notion of "healthy obesity"