Modelling Private Wealth Accumulation and Spend-down in the Italian Microsimulation Model CAPP_DYN: A Life-Cycle Approach

In microsimulation literature a limited number of models include a module aimed at analyzing and projecting the evolution of privat e wealth over time. However, this issue appears crucial in order to comprehensively evaluate the li kely distributional effects of institutional reforms adopted to cope with population ageing. In this work we describe the implementation in the Italian dynamic micro simulation model CAPP_DYN of a new module in which households\u2019 savings and asset allocation are modelled. In parti cular, we aim to account for possible behavioural responses to pension reforms in househo ld savings. To this end, we rely on an approximate life cycle structural framework for est imating saving behaviour, while adopting a traditional stochastic micro simulation approach fo r asset allocation. In line with Ando and Nicoletti Altimari (2004), we emphasize the role of lifetime economic resources in households\u2019 consumption decisions, yet we further account for i nternal habit formation and subjective expectations on pension outcomes in the econometric stage. In addition, we model intergenerational transfers of private wealth in a probabilistic fashio

The Introduction of a Private Wealth Module in CAPP_DYN: an Overview

Household saving rate in Italy declined over the last two decades.This trend still persists despite three pension reforms have been enacted since the beginning of the nineties. In this paper we search further evidence of general macroeconomic effects through the analysis of households behaviour. In the first part of the paper we use data from five surveys of the Bank of Italy Surveys of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) to estimate the lifetime profiles of saving and wealth accumulation. Estimates show that the age profile of the propensity to save has been influenced more by cohort effects than by general trend effects; whereas the age profile of the ratios of financial assets to disposable income has been subject to relevant trend effects. In the second part of the paper we analyse the effects of pension reforms on saving behaviour of Italian Households. Firstly we use a difference-in-difference estimator in order to test whether the groups more severely hit by the reforms actually increased their saving rate relative to the other groups. Then we estimate the Social Security Net Wealth (SSWN) for each individual in the SHIW in the analysed period (1989-2000). Finally we estimate the substitution coefficient between SSWN and private wealth taking into account that the reaction of saving to a change in SSWN depends also on age of the individual. Our results show that the reduction of SSWN is unequally distributed across individuals. The cut is stronger for self employed, young workers and women. Most of the groups more severely hit by the reforms did not increase their saving rate relative to the control group: younger households, in particular, did not increase the saving rate. On the whole a reduction of one Euro in SSWN seems to induce, on the average, a compensating increase in private wealth by about fifty cents. The substitution coefficient between private and social security wealth is higher for the richest and oldest part of the sample. Finally when we split the sample observations by year we find that the more dramatised is the impact of the reform, the higher is the substitution coefficient.Pension reform; household saving; social security wealth; difference-in-difference

Data Fusion Between Bank of Italy-SHIW and ISTAT-HBS

The aim of this work is to match household consumption information from Indagine sui Consumi delle Famiglie (Household Budget Survey, HBS) by the Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) with Indagine sui Bilanci delle Famiglie Italiane (Survey of Households’ Income and Wealth, SHIW) by the Bank of Italy. In particular, we combine information from the Historical Database (integrated with information from the original cross sectional files) of SHIW 2010 with the wave 2010 of HBS. The work offers a review of the main matching methodologies, coupled with a discussion of the underlying hypotheses (such as the CIA) which, in our case, are less demanding to assume given the presence of aggregate consumption as common variable between the two surveys. Moreover, some tests measuring the validity of the matching procedure are presented in order to check the preservation of joint distributions. The resulting sample provides an integrated synthetic dataset which allows to jointly analyze income, wealth and consumption distributions with a high degree of detail for both incomes/assets and consumption expenditure items. This source is expected to allow better multidimensional-distributional analyses on consumption income and wealth and to provide a basis for an integrated microsimulation analysis of direct, indirect and wealth tax reforms which, so far, has not been feasible taking available sample surveys separately

Data Fusion Between Bank of Italy-SHIW and ISTAT-HBS

The aim of this work is to match household consumption information from Indagine sui Consumi delle Famiglie (Household Budget Survey, HBS) by the Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) with Indagine sui Bilanci delle Famiglie Italiane (Survey of Households’ Income and Wealth, SHIW) by the Bank of Italy. In particular, we combine information from the Historical Database (integrated with information from the original cross sectional files) of SHIW 2010 with the wave 2010 of HBS. The work offers a review of the main matching methodologies, coupled with a discussion of the underlying hypotheses (such as the CIA) which, in our case, are less demanding to assume given the presence of aggregate consumption as common variable between the two surveys. Moreover, some tests measuring the validity of the matching procedure are presented in order to check the preservation of joint distributions. The resulting sample provides an integrated synthetic dataset which allows to jointly analyze income, wealth and consumption distributions with a high degree of detail for both incomes/assets and consumption expenditure items. This source is expected to allow better multidimensional-distributional analyses on consumption income and wealth and to provide a basis for an integrated microsimulation analysis of direct, indirect and wealth tax reforms which, so far, has not been feasible taking available sample surveys separately

Continuity between Stressful Experiences and Delusion Content in Adolescents with Psychotic Disorders – A Pilot Study

Background: Delusions are usually considered core symptoms of schizophrenia, but they are in fact associated with a wide range of psychiatric disorders. The content of a delusion is often related to stressful life experiences that preceded the delusion. Objective: The aim of this study is to detect whether there is a link—specifically, a thematic link—between past experiences and delusion content that connects the two events via thematic analogy. Method: The sample population evaluated for this study consisted of 16 consecutive patients with delusions between the ages of 9.9 and 16.5 years. All patients were experiencing their first psychotic episodes and were not taking any medications. Data were obtained from transcribed clinical sessions. Results: The data suggested the presence of a thematic link between previous experiences and the contents of delusions for 15 patients (93%). Humiliating events, including bullying, are more likely to be linked to persecutory delusions (p = .004). Conclusions: If a thematic link between past experiences and delusion content does exist, this may provide a means of greater psychotherapeutic understanding