Granger Causality Analysis of Geophysical, Geodetic and Geochemical Observations during Volcanic Unrest: A Case Study in the Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

The recent signs of reawakening at Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy) received a great deal of attention due to the issues related to the volcanic risk management in a densely populated area. This paper explores relations between ground deformations, seismicity and geochemical time series in the time span 2004–2016. The aim is to unravel primary processes of unrest and the related indicators which may change in time. Data structure and interactions among variables were examined applying the clustering analysis, the correlations and the Granger causality test. The hierarchical agglomerative clustering detected two sub-periods which were further investigated. In both sub-period causal links were observed between variables while correlations did not appear and vice versa. Thus, well established formal approaches are required to study causal relations. Granger test results indicate that during 2004–2011 the awakening unrest could be mainly ascribed to hydrothermal system pressure fluctuations, probably induced by deep-rooted fluids injection, and that ground deformation together with CO2/H2O appears the most suitable geo-indicators. The 2011–2016 sub-period is characterized by enhanced dynamical connectivity. Granger test results suggest that the unrest is driven by a more localized and shallower thermohydromechanical engine. CO/CO2, He/CH4 and ground deformation velocity are mutually interacting appearing the most suitable geo-indicators

Geophysical multidisciplinary investigation of the structure of an unstable flank: the NE sector of Mt. Etna.

Mount Etna is characterized by a complex regional tectonics with a N-S compression related to the Africa – Europe convergence that interacts with a WNW-ESE extension associated to the Malta Escarpment. A general eastward motion is present in the eastern flank. Although the existence of these phenomena is overt, the geometry of the sliding sector is still debated. The non-uniqueness of the geophysical inverse models and the different limitations in resolution and sensitivity of each technique spurred us to undertake, in the frame of the MEDiterranean Supersites Volcanoes (MED-SUV) project, a joint interpretation of independent data in order to better constrain the results. Seismic data come from the network run by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) – Osservatorio Etneo, Sezione di Catania. The relocated seismicity defines two main seismogenic volumes in the NE sector of the volcano: the first cluster is related to the known Pernicana Fault system, while the second one is located southwards, beneath the northern wall of the Valle del Bove. The resistivity models come from a MT survey carried out on the eastern flank of the volcano and consisting of thirty broad-band soundings along N-S and NW-SE oriented profiles. The resistivity modeling of MT profiles reveal three major layers in a resistive-conductive-resistive sequence. A low resistivity volume is clearly identified on the NE flank of the volcano, between The Pernicana fault and the northern wall of the Valle del Bove. Ground deformation studies (GPS and InSAR) revealed the segmentation of the unstable flank and define the NE sector as the most mobile one; this sector is perfectly bounded by the two seismic clusters and corresponds to the low resistivity volume. The sliding surface modeled by ground deformation data inversions well matches in depth with a resistivity transition and with two seismogenic layers

Fluid conduits and shallow-reservoir structure defined by geoelectrical tomography at the Nirano Salse (Italy)

Mud volcanoes are fluid escape structures allowing for surface venting of hydrocarbons (mostly gas but also liquid condensates and oils) and water–sediment slurries. For a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics, the characterization of the fluid dynamics within mud volcano conduits; the presence, extent, and depth of the fluid reservoirs; and the connection among aquifers, conduits, and mud reservoirs play a key role. To this aim, we performed a geoelectricalsurvey in the Nirano Salse Regional Nature Reserve, located at the edge of the northern Apennines (Fiorano Modenese, Italy), an area characterized by several active mud fluid vents. This study, for the first time, images the resistivity structure of the subsoil along two perpendicular cross sections down to a depth of 250 m. The electrical models show a clear difference between the northern and southern sectors of the area, where the latter hosts the main discontinuities. Shallow reservoirs, where fluid muds accumulate, are spatially associated with the main fault/fracture controlling the migration routes associated with surface venting and converge at depth towards a common clayey horizon. There is no evidence of a shallow mud caldera below the Nirano area. These findings represent a step forward in the comprehension of the Nirano Salse plumbing system and in pinpointing local site hazards, which promotes safer tourist access to the area along restricted routes

Granger Causality Analysis of Geophysical, Geodetic and Geochemical Observations during Volcanic Unrest: A Case Study in the Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

The recent signs of reawakening at Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy) received a great deal of attention due to the issues related to the volcanic risk management in a densely populated area. This paper explores relations between ground deformations, seismicity and geochemical time series in the time span 2004–2016. The aim is to unravel primary processes of unrest and the related indicators which may change in time. Data structure and interactions among variables were examined applying the clustering analysis, the correlations and the Granger causality test. The hierarchical agglomerative clustering detected two sub-periods which were further investigated. In both sub-period causal links were observed between variables while correlations did not appear and vice versa. Thus, well established formal approaches are required to study causal relations. Granger test results indicate that during 2004–2011 the awakening unrest could be mainly ascribed to hydrothermal system pressure fluctuations, probably induced by deep-rooted fluids injection, and that ground deformation together with CO2/H2O appears the most suitable geo-indicators. The 2011–2016 sub-period is characterized by enhanced dynamical connectivity. Granger test results suggest that the unrest is driven by a more localized and shallower thermohydromechanical engine. CO/CO2, He/CH4 and ground deformation velocity are mutually interacting appearing the most suitable geo-indicators

Spectral and Informational Analysis of Temperature and Chemical Composition of Solfatara Fumaroles (Campi Flegrei, Italy)

Temperature and composition at fumaroles are controlled by several volcanic and exogenous processes that operate on various time-space scales. Here, we analyze fluctuations of temperature and chemical composition recorded at fumarolic vents in Solfatara (Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy) from December 1997 to December 2015, in order to better understand source(s) and driving processes. Applying the singular spectral analysis, we found that the trends explain the great part of the variance of the geochemical series but not of the temperature series. On the other hand, a common source, also shared by other geo-indicators (ground deformation, seismicity, hydrogeological and meteorological data), seems to be linked with the oscillatory structure of the investigated signals. The informational characteristics of temperature and geochemical compositions, analyzed by using the Fisher-Shannon method, appear to be a sort of fingerprint of the different periodic structure. In fact, the oscillatory components were characterized by a wide range of significant periodicities nearly equally powerful that show a higher degree of entropy, indicating that changes are influenced by overlapped processes occurring at different scales with a rather similar intensity. The present study represents an advancement in the understanding of the dominant driving mechanisms of volcanic signals at fumaroles that might be also valid for other volcanic areas

Evaluation of Geophysical Data from Campi Flegrei Caldera with a VAR model

The Campi Flegrei caldera, during the period 1994-2016, showed two opposite bradyseismic trends. The second period (2004-2016) is characterized by an acceleration in the number of earthquakes and in the ground deformation. The aim of this study is to investigate whether, in the second period, causal relationships exist, according to the Granger causality test, between some geochemical and geophysical variables, using the VAR model and the Impulse Response Function. The results reveal interesting considerations regarding the causality and forecasting of the events connected with the caldera inflatio

Evaluation of geophysical data from campi flegrei caldera with a vector autoregressive Model

The Campi Flegrei caldera, during the period 1994-2016, showed two opposite bradyseismic trends. The second period (2004-2016) is characterized by an acceleration in the number of earthquakes and in the ground deformation. The aim of this study is to investigate whether, in the second period, causal relationships exist, according to the Granger causality test, between some geochemical and geophysical variables, using the VAR model and the Impulse Response Function. The results reveal interesting considerations regarding the causality and forecasting of the events connected with the caldera inflation

Evaluation of Geophysical Data from Campi Flegrei Caldera with a VAR model Modello VAR su dati geofisici dei Campi Flegrei

The Campi Flegrei caldera, during the period 1994-2016, showed two opposite bradyseismic trends. The second period (2004-2016) is characterized by an acceleration in the number of earthquakes and in the ground deformation. The aim of this study is to investigate whether, in the second period, causal relationships exist, according to the Granger causality test, between some geochemical and geophysical variables, using the VAR model and the Impulse Response Function. The results reveal interesting considerations regarding the causality and forecasting of the events connected with the caldera inflatio

Chemical Characteristics and Oxidative Stability of Buffalo Mozzarella Cheese Produced with Fresh and Frozen Curd

Milk and dairy products can have variable contents of antioxidant compounds that contribute to counteract the oxidation of lipids and proteins during processing and storage. The content of active antioxidant compounds is closely linked to their protection by oxidation. Freezing is one of the factors that can reduce antioxidant activity. Freezing of milk or curd is frequently used in case of the seasonality of milk production and/or seasonal increased demand for some products. In this paper, the effect of using frozen curd on the oxidative stability of buffalo Mozzarella cheese was evaluated. Samples of buffalo Mozzarella with different frozen curd content (0%, 5%, 20%, and 50%) were produced and analyzed at one and nine days. Mozzarella cheese with higher frozen curd content had a significant increase in redox potential parallel to the decrease in antioxidant activity, showing less protection from oxidation. Lipid and protein oxidation, expressed respectively by malondialdehyde and carbonyl content, increased significantly with increasing frozen curd. At nine days, carbonyls significantly increased while malondialdehyde content did not vary, showing that during storage, fat was more protected from oxidation than protein. The average carbonyl levels were comparable to those of some cooked cheeses, and the malondialdehyde levels were even lower. The results of this study stimulate the investigation of new strategies to decrease the oxidative damage in cheeses produced in the presence of factors decreasing oxidative stability

Geophysical multidisciplinary investigation of the structure of the unstable sector of Mt. Etna volcano

Mount Etna is characterized by a complex regional tectonics with a N-S compression related to the Africa - Europe convergence that interacts with a WNW-ESE extension associated to the Malta Escarpment. A general eastward motion is present in the eastern flank. Although the existence of these phenomena is overt, the geometry of the sliding sector is still debated. The non-uniqueness of the geophysical inverse models and the different limitations in resolution and sensitivity of each technique spurred us to undertake a joint interpretation of the independent datasets in order to better constrain the results. Seismic data come from the network run by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) - Osservatorio Etneo, Sezione di Catania. The relocated seismicity defines two main seismogenic volumes in the NE sector of the volcano: the first cluster is related to the known Pernicana Fault system, while the second one is located southwards, beneath the northern wall of the Valle del Bove. The resistivity models come from a MT survey carried out on the eastern flank of the volcano and consisting of thirty broad-band soundings along N-S and NW-SE oriented profiles. The resistivity modeling of MT profiles reveal three major layers in a resistive-conductive-resistive sequence. A low resistivity volume is clearly identified on the NE flank of the volcano, between The Pernicana fault and the northern wall of the Valle del Bove. Ground deformation studies (GPS and InSAR) revealed the segmentation of the unstable flank and define the NE sector as the most mobile one; this sector is perfectly bounded by the two seismic clusters and corresponds to the low resistivity volume. The sliding surface modeled by ground deformation data inversions well matches in depth with a resistivity transition and with two seismogenic layers.INGVPublished1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcaniciope