Predictability in an unpredictable artificial cultural market

In social, economic and cultural situations in which the decisions of individuals are influenced directly by the decisions of others, there appears to be an inherently high level of ex ante unpredictability. In cultural markets such as films, songs and books, well-informed experts routinely make predictions which turn out to be incorrect. We examine the extent to which the existence of social influence may, somewhat paradoxically, increase the extent to which winners can be identified at a very early stage in the process. Once the process of choice has begun, only a very small number of decisions may be necessary to give a reasonable prospect of being able to identify the eventual winner. We illustrate this by an analysis of the music download experiments of Salganik et.al. (2006). We derive a rule for early identification of the eventual winner. Although not perfect, it gives considerable practical success. We validate the rule by applying it to similar data not used in the process of constructing the rule

Study of the Wall Thermal Condition Effect in a Lean-Premixed Downscaled Can Combustor Using Large-Eddy Simulation

The primary purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of LES, with a turbulent combustion model based on steady flamelets, to predict the flame stabilization mechanisms in an industrial can combustor at full load conditions. The test case corresponds to the downscaled Siemens can combustor tested in the high pressure rig at the DLR. The effects of the wall temperature on the prediction capabilities of the codes is investigated by imposing several heat transfer conditions at the pilot and chamber walls. The codes used for this work are Alya and OpenFOAM, which are well established CFD codes in the fluid mechanics community. Prior to the simulation, results for 1-D laminar flames at the operating conditions of the combustor are compared with the detailed solutions. Subsequently, results from both codes at the mid-plane are compared against the experimental data available. Acceptable results are obtained for the axial velocity, while discrepancies are more evident for the mixture fraction and the temperature, particularly with Alya. However, both codes showed that the heat losses influence the size and length of the pilot and main flame.The research leading to these results has received funding through the People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7, 2007-2013) under the grant agreement No. FP7-290042 for the project COPA-GT and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Programme (2014-2020) and from Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation through Rede Nacional de Pesquisa (RNP) under the HPC4E Project, grant agreement No. 689772. The authors thankfully acknowledge the computer resources, technical expertise and assistance provided by the Red Española de Supercomputación (RES).Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Plasma zinc concentrations are depressed during the acute phase response in children with falciparum malaria

Plasma concentrations of some micronutrients are altered in the setting of acute infectious or inflammatory stress. Previous studies have provided conflicting evidence concerning the extent and direction of changes in plasma zinc concentrations during the acute phase response. We carried out an observational cohort study in 689 children enrolled in a randomized trial of zinc supplementation during acute falciparum malaria in order to evaluate the relation between plasma zinc concentration and the acute phase response. Plasma zinc was measured by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. On admission, 70% of all subjects had low plasma zinc (\u3c9.2 μmol/L). Multivariate analysis of predictors of admission plasma zinc showed that admission C-reactive protein (CRP), parasite density, and study site were the most important predictors. Predictors of changes in plasma zinc from admission to 72 h included baseline CRP, change in CRP, treatment group, study site, and baseline zinc concentration. In children with acute malaria infection, baseline plasma zinc concentrations were very low and were inversely correlated with CRP (r = -0.24, P \u3c 0.0001) and the degree of parasitemia (r = -0.19, P \u3c 0.0001). Even when CRP and time were taken into account, zinc supplementation increased plasma zinc concentration from admission to 72 h. When available, plasma zinc concentrations should be interpreted with concurrent measures of the acute phase response such as CRP. In children whose age, diet, and/or nutritional status place them at risk of zinc deficiency, those with low plasma zinc levels should be supplemented with oral zinc and followed for clinical and/or biochemical response. © 2005 American Society for Nutritional Sciences

AR and MA representation of partial autocorrelation functions, with applications

We prove a representation of the partial autocorrelation function (PACF), or the Verblunsky coefficients, of a stationary process in terms of the AR and MA coefficients. We apply it to show the asymptotic behaviour of the PACF. We also propose a new definition of short and long memory in terms of the PACF.Comment: Published in Probability Theory and Related Field

Age, temperature, and parasitaemia predict chloroquine treatment failure and anaemia in children with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria

The prevalence of chloroquine-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria has been increasing in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South America over the last 2 decades, and has been associated with increased anaemia-associated morbidity and higher mortality rates. Prospectively collected clinical and parasitological data from a multicentre study of 788 children aged 6-59 months with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria were analysed in order to identify risk factors for chloroquine treatment failure and to assess its impact on anaemia after therapy. The proportion of chloroquine treatment failures (combined early and late treatment failures) was higher in the central-eastern African countries (Tanzania, 53%; Uganda, 80%; Zambia, 57%) and Ecuador (54%) than in Ghana (36%). Using logistic regression, predictors of early treatment failure included younger age, higher baseline temperature, and greater levels of parasitaemia. We conclude that younger age, higher initial temperature, and higher baseline parasitaemia predict early treatment failure and a higher probability of worsening anaemia between admission and days 7 or 14 post-treatment

Dynamical stability of infinite homogeneous self-gravitating systems: application of the Nyquist method

We complete classical investigations concerning the dynamical stability of an infinite homogeneous gaseous medium described by the Euler-Poisson system or an infinite homogeneous stellar system described by the Vlasov-Poisson system (Jeans problem). To determine the stability of an infinite homogeneous stellar system with respect to a perturbation of wavenumber k, we apply the Nyquist method. We first consider the case of single-humped distributions and show that, for infinite homogeneous systems, the onset of instability is the same in a stellar system and in the corresponding barotropic gas, contrary to the case of inhomogeneous systems. We show that this result is true for any symmetric single-humped velocity distribution, not only for the Maxwellian. If we specialize on isothermal and polytropic distributions, analytical expressions for the growth rate, damping rate and pulsation period of the perturbation can be given. Then, we consider the Vlasov stability of symmetric and asymmetric double-humped distributions (two-stream stellar systems) and determine the stability diagrams depending on the degree of asymmetry. We compare these results with the Euler stability of two self-gravitating gaseous streams. Finally, we determine the corresponding stability diagrams in the case of plasmas and compare the results with self-gravitating systems

A Solvable Regime of Disorder and Interactions in Ballistic Nanostructures, Part I: Consequences for Coulomb Blockade

We provide a framework for analyzing the problem of interacting electrons in a ballistic quantum dot with chaotic boundary conditions within an energy $E_T$ (the Thouless energy) of the Fermi energy. Within this window we show that the interactions can be characterized by Landau Fermi liquid parameters. When $g$, the dimensionless conductance of the dot, is large, we find that the disordered interacting problem can be solved in a saddle-point approximation which becomes exact as $g\to\infty$ (as in a large-N theory). The infinite $g$ theory shows a transition to a strong-coupling phase characterized by the same order parameter as in the Pomeranchuk transition in clean systems (a spontaneous interaction-induced Fermi surface distortion), but smeared and pinned by disorder. At finite $g$, the two phases and critical point evolve into three regimes in the $u_m-1/g$ plane -- weak- and strong-coupling regimes separated by crossover lines from a quantum-critical regime controlled by the quantum critical point. In the strong-coupling and quantum-critical regions, the quasiparticle acquires a width of the same order as the level spacing $\Delta$ within a few $\Delta$'s of the Fermi energy due to coupling to collective excitations. In the strong coupling regime if $m$ is odd, the dot will (if isolated) cross over from the orthogonal to unitary ensemble for an exponentially small external flux, or will (if strongly coupled to leads) break time-reversal symmetry spontaneously.Comment: 33 pages, 14 figures. Very minor changes. We have clarified that we are treating charge-channel instabilities in spinful systems, leaving spin-channel instabilities for future work. No substantive results are change

Promoting Reuse with Active Reuse Repository Systems

Abstract. Software component-based reuse is diÆcult for software de-velopers to adopt because rst they must know what components exist in a reuse repository and then they must know how to retrieve them easily. This paper describes the concept and implementation of active reuse repository systems that address the above two issues. Active reuse repository systems employ active information delivery mechanisms to deliver potentially reusable components that are relevant to the current development task. They can help software developers reuse components they did not even know existed. They can also greatly reduce the cost of component location because software developers need neither to specify reuse queries explicitly, nor to switch working contexts back and forth between development environments and reuse repository systems.

A complex systems approach to constructing better models for managing financial markets and the economy

We outline a vision for an ambitious program to understand the economy and financial markets as a complex evolving system of coupled networks of interacting agents. This is a completely different vision from that currently used in most economic models. This view implies new challenges and opportunities for policy and managing economic crises. The dynamics of such models inherently involve sudden and sometimes dramatic changes of state. Further, the tools and approaches we use emphasize the analysis of crises rather than of calm periods. In this they respond directly to the calls of Governors Bernanke and Trichet for new approaches to macroeconomic modelling.The publication of this work was partially supported by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. 284709, a Coordination and Support Action in the Information and Communication Technologies activity area (‘FuturICT’ FET Flagship Pilot Project). Doyne Farmer, Mauro Gallegati and Cars Hommes also acknowledge financial support from the EU-7th framework collaborative project “Complexity Research Initiative for Systemic InstabilitieS (CRISIS)”, grant No. 288501. Cars Hommes acknowledges financial support from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), project “Understanding Financial Instability through Complex Systems”. None of the above are responsible for errors in this paper.Publicad