Biased Experts, Costly Lies, and Binary Decisions

Decision makers lacking crucial specialist know-how often consult with better informed but biased experts. In our model the decision maker’s choice problem is binary and her preferred option depends on the state of the world unknown to her. The expert observes the state and sends a report to the decision maker. His bias is such that he prefers the same decision for all states. Lying about the state leads to a cost that increases in the size of the lie. As a function of the size of the expert’s bias and the decision maker’s prior about the underlying state, three kinds of equilibrium behavior occur. In each case equilibrium consists of separating and pooling segments, and the decision maker takes the expert’s preferred decision for some states for which she would not take this decision had she observed the state herself. The model has a variety of applications and extends to situations in which the decision maker may be naive and take the report by its face value, and to situations with multiple experts and uncertainty about the size of the expert’s bias.

Inefficient Policies and Incumbency Advantage

We study incumbency advantage in a dynamic game with incomplete information between an incumbent and a voter. The incumbent knows the true state of the world, e.g., the severity of an economic recession or the level of criminal activities, and can choose the quality of his policy. This quality and the state of the world determine the policy outcome, i.e., the economic growth rate or the number of crimes committed. The voter only observes the policy outcome and then decides whether to reelect the incumbent or not. Her preferences are such that she would reelect the incumbent under full information if and only if the state of the world is above a given threshold level. In equilibrium, the incumbent is reelected in more states of the world than he would be under full information. In particular, he chooses ine±cient policies and generates mediocre policy outcomes whenever the voter's induced belief distribution will be such that her expected utility of reelecting the incumbent exceeds her expected utility of electing the opposition candidate. Hence, there is an incumbency advantage through ine±cient policies. We provide empirical evidence consistent with the prediction that reelection concerns may induce incumbents to generate mediocre outcomes.Elections; Incumbency Advantage; Political Economics

Inefficient Policies and Incumbency Advanage

We study incumbency advantage in a dynamic game with incomplete information between an incumbent and a voter. The incumbent knows the true state of the world, e.g., the severity of an economic recession or the level of criminal activities, and can choose the quality of his policy. This quality and the state of the world determine the policy outcome, i.e., the economic growth rate or the number of crimes committed. The voter only observes the policy outcome and then decides whether to reelect the incumbent or not. Her preferences are such that she would reelect the incumbent under full information if and only if the state of the world is above a given threshold level. In equilibrium, the incumbent is reelected in more states of the world than he would be under full information. In particular, he chooses inefficient policies and generates mediocre policy outcomes whenever the voter's induced belief distribution will be such that her expected utility of reelecting the incumbent exceeds her expected utility of electing the opposition candidate. Hence, there is an incumbency advantage through inefficient policies. We provide empirical evidence consistent with the prediction that reelection concerns may induce incumbents to generate mediocre outcomes

Zebrafish eda and edar Mutants Reveal Conserved and Ancestral Roles of Ectodysplasin Signaling in Vertebrates

The genetic basis of the development and variation of adult form of vertebrates is not well understood. To address this problem, we performed a mutant screen to identify genes essential for the formation of adult skeletal structures of the zebrafish. Here, we describe the phenotypic and molecular characterization of a set of mutants showing loss of adult structures of the dermal skeleton, such as the rays of the fins and the scales, as well as the pharyngeal teeth. The mutations represent adult-viable, loss of function alleles in the ectodysplasin (eda) and ectodysplasin receptor (edar) genes. These genes are frequently mutated in the human hereditary disease hypohidrotic ectodermal dysplasia (HED; OMIM 224900, 305100) that affects the development of integumentary appendages such as hair and teeth. We find mutations in zebrafish edar that affect similar residues as mutated in human cases of HED and show similar phenotypic consequences. eda and edar are not required for early zebrafish development, but are rather specific for the development of adult skeletal and dental structures. We find that the defects of the fins and scales are due to the role of Eda signaling in organizing epidermal cells into discrete signaling centers of the scale epidermal placode and fin fold. Our genetic analysis demonstrates dose-sensitive and organ-specific response to alteration in levels of Eda signaling. In addition, we show substantial buffering of the effect of loss of edar function in different genetic backgrounds, suggesting canalization of this developmental system. We uncover a previously unknown role of Eda signaling in teleosts and show conservation of the developmental mechanisms involved in the formation and variation of both integumentary appendages and limbs. Lastly, our findings point to the utility of adult genetic screens in the zebrafish in identifying essential developmental processes involved in human disease and in morphological evolution

Spatial distribution and residency of green and loggerhead sea turtles using coastal reef habitats in southern Mozambique

Sea turtles spend the majority of their immature and adult lives in foraging grounds, yet few studies have examined their abundance and condition in these areas when compared to more accessible nesting beach habitats. Here, a 5-year dive log, photo-identification (photo-ID) and surface encounter datasets were used to investigate the abundance, individual movements and distribution of sea turtles along 40 km of coastal reefs in southern Mozambique. A generalized linear model (GLM) was constructed with turtle sightings as the response variable. Habitat type, year and day of the year, as well as underwater visibility, were significant predictors of turtle sightings. However, only 8% of the total variance was explained by the model, indicating that other variables have a significant influence on turtle movement and distribution. Photo-ID differentiated 22 individual green turtles Chelonia mydas and 42 loggerhead turtles Caretta caretta from 323 photo-ID encounters. A majority (64%) of the photos could be used to identify the individual. Although residency times of up to 1152 days were calculated for juvenile green turtles, a low overall resighting rate indicates that individual turtles either had large home ranges or were transient to the area. Surface encounter data revealed a preference for nearshore shallow waters and an increased abundance close to reef systems. Sea turtles' preferences for shallow, nearshore habitats are likely to increase the encounter risk with opportunistic and targeted artisanal fishers who catch sea turtles

Callus Induction from Diverse Explants and Genotypes Enables Robust Transformation of Perennial Ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.)

Genetic transformation of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) is critical for fundamental and translational research in this important grass species. It often relies on Agrobacterium-mediated transformation of callus tissue. However, callus induction is restricted to a few genotypes that respond well to tissue culture. Here, we report callus induction from different perennial ryegrass genotypes and explants, such as shoot tips, seeds, and anthers, which were transformed with several plasmids for functional genomics. β-glucuronidase (GUS) histochemical staining showed the LmdsRNAbp promoter sequence was active in stigmas, spikelets, anthers, and leaves. We also transformed calli with plasmids allowing gene silencing and gene knock-out using RNA interference and CRISPR/Cas9, respectively, for which genotypic and phenotypic investigations are ongoing. Using 19 different constructs, 262 transgenic events were regenerated. Moreover, the protocol regenerated a doubled haploid transgenic event from anther-derived calli. This work provides a proof-of-concept method for expanding the range of genotypes amenable to transformation, thus, serving research and breeding initiatives to improve this important grass crop for forage and recreation

Satellite tracking of juvenile whale sharks in the Sulu and Bohol Seas, Philippines

The whale shark Rhincodon typus was uplisted to ‘Endangered’ in the 2016 IUCN Red List due to >50% population decline, largely caused by continued exploitation in the Indo-Pacific. Though the Philippines protected the whale shark in 1998, concerns remain due to continued take in regional waters. In light of this, understanding the movements of whale sharks in the Philippines, one of the most important hotspots for the species, is vital. We tagged 17 juvenile whale sharks with towed SPOT5 tags from three general areas in the Sulu and Bohol Seas: Panaon Island in Southern Leyte, northern Mindanao, and Tubbataha Reefs Natural Park (TRNP). The sharks all remained in Philippine waters for the duration of tracking (6–126 days, mean 64). Individuals travelled 86–2,580 km (mean 887 km) at a mean horizontal speed of 15.5 ± 13.0 SD km day−1. Whale sharks tagged in Panaon Island and Mindanao remained close to shore but still spent significant time off the shelf (>200 m). Sharks tagged at TRNP spent most of their time offshore in the Sulu Sea. Three of twelve whale sharks tagged in the Bohol Sea moved through to the Sulu Sea, whilst two others moved east through the Surigao Strait to the eastern coast of Leyte. One individual tagged at TRNP moved to northern Palawan, and subsequently to the eastern coast of Mindanao in the Pacific Ocean. Based on inferred relationships with temperature histograms, whale sharks performed most deep dives (>200 m) during the night, in contrast to results from whale sharks elsewhere. While all sharks stayed in national waters, our results highlight the high mobility of juvenile whale sharks and demonstrate their connectivity across the Sulu and Bohol Seas, highlighting the importance of the area for this endangered species

Mass deworming for improving health and cognition of children in endemic helminth areas: A systematic review and individual participant data network meta‐analysis

Background: Soil transmitted (or intestinal) helminths and schistosomes affect millions of children worldwide. Objectives: To use individual participant data network meta-analysis (NMA) to explore the effects of different types and frequency of deworming drugs on anaemia, cognition and growth across potential effect modifiers. Search Methods: We developed a search strategy with an information scientist to search MEDLINE, CINAHL, LILACS, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Econlit, Internet Documents in Economics Access Service (IDEAS), Public Affairs Information Service (PAIS), Social Services Abstracts, Global Health CABI and CAB Abstracts up to March 27, 2018. We also searched grey literature, websites, contacted authors and screened references of relevant systematic reviews. Selection Criteria: We included randomised and quasirandomised deworming trials in children for deworming compared to placebo or other interventions with data on baseline infection. Data Collection and Analysis: We conducted NMA with individual participant data (IPD), using a frequentist approach for random-effects NMA. The covariates were: age, sex, weight, height, haemoglobin and infection intensity. The effect estimate chosen was the mean difference for the continuous outcome of interest. Results: We received data from 19 randomized controlled trials with 31,945 participants. Overall risk of bias was low. There were no statistically significant subgroup effects across any of the potential effect modifiers. However, analyses showed that there may be greater effects on weight for moderate to heavily infected children (very low certainty evidence). Authors' Conclusions: This analysis reinforces the case against mass deworming at a population-level, finding little effect on nutritional status or cognition. However, children with heavier intensity infections may benefit more. We urge the global community to adopt calls to make data available in open repositories to facilitate IPD analyses such as this, which aim to assess effects for the most vulnerable individuals

Mass deworming for improving health and cognition of children in endemic helminth areas: A systematic review and individual participant data network meta‐analysis

BackgroundSoil transmitted (or intestinal) helminths and schistosomes affect millions of children worldwide.ObjectivesTo use individual participant data network meta‐analysis (NMA) to explore the effects of different types and frequency of deworming drugs on anaemia, cognition and growth across potential effect modifiers.Search MethodsWe developed a search strategy with an information scientist to search MEDLINE, CINAHL, LILACS, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Econlit, Internet Documents in Economics Access Service (IDEAS), Public Affairs Information Service (PAIS), Social Services Abstracts, Global Health CABI and CAB Abstracts up to March 27, 2018. We also searched grey literature, websites, contacted authors and screened references of relevant systematic reviews.Selection CriteriaWe included randomised and quasirandomised deworming trials in children for deworming compared to placebo or other interventions with data on baseline infection.Data Collection and AnalysisWe conducted NMA with individual participant data (IPD), using a frequentist approach for random‐effects NMA. The covariates were: age, sex, weight, height, haemoglobin and infection intensity. The effect estimate chosen was the mean difference for the continuous outcome of interest.ResultsWe received data from 19 randomized controlled trials with 31,945 participants. Overall risk of bias was low. There were no statistically significant subgroup effects across any of the potential effect modifiers. However, analyses showed that there may be greater effects on weight for moderate to heavily infected children (very low certainty evidence).Authors' ConclusionsThis analysis reinforces the case against mass deworming at a population‐level, finding little effect on nutritional status or cognition. However, children with heavier intensity infections may benefit more. We urge the global community to adopt calls to make data available in open repositories to facilitate IPD analyses such as this, which aim to assess effects for the most vulnerable individuals.</div