WaND Briefing Note 28 Revised Options for UK Domestic Water Reduction - A Review

Demand pressure on UK water supplies is expected to increase in the next 20 years driven by increasing population, new housing development and reducing household size. Regionally and at town level migration will also affect demand particularly in the South-East which is forecast to have a larger than average growth in population and house building. The water demand moderating trends that are considered to have the greatest effect on UK consumption, in approximate order, are: 1. Metering 2. Low flush toilets 3. Normal showers 4. Efficient washing machines 5. Dishwashers 6. Cistern displacement devices (in existing homes with large cisterns) 7. Water efficient gardening measures can play an important role in reducing demand during critical drought period

The Options for UK Domestic Water Reduction: A Review

Demand pressure on UK water supplies is expected to increase in the next 20 years driven by increasing population, new housing development and reducing household size. Regionally and locally migration will also afect demand particularly in the South-East. The water reduction trends that will have the greatest reduction effect on UK consumption are: 1. For new homes; metering and new efficiencies in design and construction (e.g. low flush toilets, heating and plumbing efficiences) 2. For established housing; metering and modern washing machines

MACROWater: a Top-down, Policy-driven Model for Forecasting Domestic Water Demand

MACROWater is a top-down domestic water demand model developed for the WaND project (Water Cycle Management for New Developments). Forecasts have been produced for all local authorities in England and Wales. They can be aggregrated for different reporting areas (such as Government Office Regions, Sustainable Communities and water companies). Sustainable community is the official term for key strategic areas, earmarked for rapid expansion of housing supply (such as the M11 corridor, Ashford, Milton Keynes). This model description uses the UK's biggest Sustainable Community, Thames Gateway, as the example case study. Utilising Domestic Consumption Monitors from the water companies supplying this area, combined with housing, household and population projections, the authors have modelled domestic demand in detail. Alternative futures are considered using a set of urban water management scenarios, which represent different levels of adoption of water-saving technologies and different consumption patterns. For example, under the greener scenarios, new homes are fitted out with water-efficient equipment, allied with incentives to replace/refurbish as much old housing stock as possible. The modelling work demonstrates that increased demand from new developments can be accommodated but only through strict demand management and some new water supply measures

Type Ia Supernovae and Accretion Induced Collapse

Using the population synthesis binary evolution code StarTrack, we present theoretical rates and delay times of Type Ia supernovae arising from various formation channels. These channels include binaries in which the exploding white dwarf reaches the Chandrasekhar mass limit (DDS, SDS, and helium-rich donor scenario) as well as the sub-Chandrasekhar mass scenario, in which a white dwarf accretes from a helium-rich companion and explodes as a SN Ia before reaching the Chandrasekhar mass limit. We find that using a common envelope parameterization employing energy balance with alpha=1 and lambda=1, the supernova rates per unit mass (born in stars) of sub-Chandrasekhar mass SNe Ia exceed those of all other progenitor channels at epochs t=0.7 - 4 Gyr for a burst of star formation at t=0. Additionally, the delay time distribution of the sub-Chandrasekhar model can be divided in to two distinct evolutionary channels: the `prompt' helium-star channel with delay times < 500 Myr, and the `delayed' double white dwarf channel with delay times > 800 Myr spanning up to a Hubble time. These findings are in agreement with recent observationally-derived delay time distributions which predict that a large number of SNe Ia have delay times < 1 Gyr, with a significant fraction having delay times < 500 Myr. We find that the DDS channel is also able to account for the observed rates of SNe Ia. However, detailed simulations of white dwarf mergers have shown that most of these mergers will not lead to SNe Ia but rather to the formation of a neutron star via accretion-induced collapse. If this is true, our standard population synthesis model predicts that the only progenitor channel which can account for the rates of SNe Ia is the sub-Chandrasekhar mass scenario, and none of the other progenitors considered can fully account for the observed rates.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, 1 table, to appear in proceedings for "Binary Star Evolution: Mass Loss, Accretion and Mergers

Constraints on explosive silicon burning in core-collapse supernovae from measured Ni/Fe ratios

Measurements of explosive nucleosynthesis yields in core-collapse supernovae provide tests for explosion models. We investigate constraints on explosive conditions derivable from measured amounts of nickel and iron after radioactive decays using nucleosynthesis networks with parameterized thermodynamic trajectories. The Ni/Fe ratio is for most regimes dominated by the production ratio of 58Ni/(54Fe + 56Ni), which tends to grow with higher neutron excess and with higher entropy. For SN 2012ec, a supernova that produced a Ni/Fe ratio of $3.4\pm1.2$ times solar, we find that burning of a fuel with neutron excess $\eta \approx 6\times 10^{-3}$ is required. Unless the progenitor metallicity is over 5 times solar, the only layer in the progenitor with such a neutron excess is the silicon shell. Supernovae producing large amounts of stable nickel thus suggest that this deep-lying layer can be, at least partially, ejected in the explosion. We find that common spherically symmetric models of $M_{\rm ZAMS} \lesssim 13$ Msun stars exploding with a delay time of less than one second ($M_{\rm cut} < 1.5$ Msun) are able to achieve such silicon-shell ejection. Supernovae that produce solar or sub-solar Ni/Fe ratios, such as SN 1987A, must instead have burnt and ejected only oxygen-shell material, which allows a lower limit to the mass cut to be set. Finally, we find that the extreme Ni/Fe value of 60-75 times solar derived for the Crab cannot be reproduced by any realistic-entropy burning outside the iron core, and neutrino-neutronization obtained in electron-capture models remains the only viable explanation.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Understanding the fidelity effect when evaluating games with children

There have been a number of studies that have compared evaluation results from prototypes of different fidelities but very few of these are with children. This paper reports a comparative study of three prototypes ranging from low fidelity to high fidelity within the context of mobile games, using a between subject design with 37 participants aged 7 to 9. The children played a matching game on either an iPad, a paper prototype using screen shots of the actual game or a sketched version. Observational data was captured to establish the usability problems, and two tools from the Fun Toolkit were used to measure user experience. The results showed that there was little difference for user experience between the three prototypes and very few usability problems were unique to a specific prototype. The contribution of this paper is that children using low-fidelity prototypes can effectively evaluate games of this genre and style

Goldstein-Kac telegraph processes with random speeds: Path probabilities, likelihoods, and reported Lévy flights.

The Goldstein-Kac telegraph process describes the one-dimensional motion of particles with constant speed undergoing random changes in direction. Despite its resemblance to numerous real-world phenomena, the singular nature of the resultant spatial distribution of each particle precludes the possibility of any a posteriori empirical validation of this random-walk model from data. Here we show that by simply allowing for random speeds, the ballistic terms are regularized and that the diffusion component can be well-approximated via the unscented transform. The result is a computationally efficient yet robust evaluation of the full particle path probabilities and, hence, the parameter likelihoods of this generalized telegraph process. We demonstrate how a population diffusing under such a model can lead to non-Gaussian asymptotic spatial distributions, thereby mimicking the behavior of an ensemble of Lévy walkers

The reverberation signatures of rotating disc winds in active galactic nuclei

The broad emission lines (BELs) in active galactic nuclei (AGN) respond to ionizing continuum variations. The time and velocity dependence of their response depends on the structure of the broad-line region: its geometry, kinematics and ionization state. Here, we predict the reverberation signatures of BELs formed in rotating accretion disc winds. We use a Monte Carlo radiative transfer and ionization code to predict velocity-delay maps for representative high- (C$~IV$) and low-ionization (H$\alpha$) emission lines in both high- and moderate-luminosity AGN. Self-shielding, multiple scattering and the ionization structure of the outflows are all self-consistently taken into account, while small-scale structure in the outflow is modelled in the micro-clumping approximation. Our main findings are: (1) The velocity-delay maps of smooth/micro-clumped outflows often contain significant negative responses. (2)~The reverberation signatures of disc wind models tend to be rotation dominated and can even resemble the classic "red-leads-blue" inflow signature. (3) Traditional "blue-leads-red" outflow signatures can usually only be observed in the long-delay limit. (4) Our models predict lag-luminosity relationships similar to those inferred from observations, but systematically underpredict the observed centroid delays. (5) The ratio between "virial product" and black hole mass predicted by our models depends on viewing angle. Our results imply that considerable care needs to be taken in interpreting data obtained by observational reverberation mapping campaigns. In particular, basic signatures such as "red-leads-blue", "blue-leads-red" and "blue and red vary jointly" are not always reliable indicators of inflow, outflow or rotation. This may help to explain the perplexing diversity of such signatures seen in observational campaigns to date.Comment: 15 pages, 17 figures, 2 tables. Accepted by MNRAS 20/7/201

Type Ia Supernovae and Accretion Induced Collapse

Using the population synthesis binary evolution code StarTrack, we present theoretical rates and delay times of Type Ia supernovae arising from various formation channels. These channels include binaries in which the exploding white dwarf reaches the Chandrasekhar mass limit (DDS, SDS, and helium-rich donor scenario) as well as the sub-Chandrasekhar mass scenario, in which a white dwarf accretes from a helium-rich companion and explodes as a SN Ia before reaching the Chandrasekhar mass limit. We find that using a common envelope parameterization employing energy balance with alpha=1 and lambda=1, the supernova rates per unit mass (born in stars) of sub-Chandrasekhar mass SNe Ia exceed those of all other progenitor channels at epochs t=0.7 - 4 Gyr for a burst of star formation at t=0. Additionally, the delay time distribution of the sub-Chandrasekhar model can be divided in to two distinct evolutionary channels: the `prompt' helium-star channel with delay times < 500 Myr, and the `delayed' double white dwarf channel with delay times > 800 Myr spanning up to a Hubble time. These findings are in agreement with recent observationally-derived delay time distributions which predict that a large number of SNe Ia have delay times < 1 Gyr, with a significant fraction having delay times < 500 Myr. We find that the DDS channel is also able to account for the observed rates of SNe Ia. However, detailed simulations of white dwarf mergers have shown that most of these mergers will not lead to SNe Ia but rather to the formation of a neutron star via accretion-induced collapse. If this is true, our standard population synthesis model predicts that the only progenitor channel which can account for the rates of SNe Ia is the sub-Chandrasekhar mass scenario, and none of the other progenitors considered can fully account for the observed rates.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, 1 table, to appear in proceedings for "Binary Star Evolution: Mass Loss, Accretion and Mergers