A probabilistic graphical model for assessing equivocal evidence

The Bayes’ theorem can be generalized to account for uncertainty on reported evidence. This has an impact on the value of the evidence, making the computation of the Bayes factor more demanding, as discussed by Taroni, Garbolino, and Bozza (2020). Probabilistic graphical models can however represent a suitable tool to assist the scientist in their evaluative task. A Bayesian network is proposed to deal with equivocal evidence and its use is illustrated through examples

The Role of the Bayes Factor in the Evaluation of Evidence

The use of the Bayes factor as a metric for the assessment of the probative value of forensic scientific evidence is largely supported by recommended standards in different disciplines. The application of Bayesian networks enables the consideration of problems of increasing complexity. The lack of a widespread consensus concerning key aspects of evidence evaluation and interpretation, such as the adequacy of a probabilistic framework for handling uncertainty or the method by which conclusions regarding how the strength of the evidence should be reported to a court, has meant the role of the Bayes factor in the administration of criminal justice has come under increasing challenge in recent years. We review the many advantages the Bayes factor has as an approach to the evaluation and interpretation of evidence

Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R

Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R provides a self-contained introduction to computational Bayesian statistics using R. With its primary focus on Bayes factors supported by data sets, this book features an operational perspective, practical relevance, and applicability—keeping theoretical and philosophical justifications limited. It offers a balanced approach to three naturally interrelated topics: – Probabilistic Inference: Relies on the core concept of Bayesian inferential statistics, to help practicing forensic scientists in the logical and balanced evaluation of the weight of evidence. – Decision Making: Features how Bayes factors are interpreted in practical applications to help address questions of decision analysis involving the use of forensic science in the law. – Operational Relevance: Combines inference and decision, backed up with practical examples and complete sample code in R, including sensitivity analyses and discussion on how to interpret results in context. Over the past decades, probabilistic methods have established a firm position as a reference approach for the management of uncertainty in virtually all areas of science, including forensic science, with Bayes' theorem providing the fundamental logical tenet for assessing how new information—scientific evidence—ought to be weighed. Central to this approach is the Bayes factor, which clarifies the evidential meaning of new information, by providing a measure of the change in the odds in favor of a proposition of interest, when going from the prior to the posterior distribution. Bayes factors should guide the scientist's thinking about the value of scientific evidence and form the basis of logical and balanced reporting practices, thus representing essential foundations for rational decision making under uncertainty. This book would be relevant to students, practitioners, and applied statisticians interested in inference and decision analyses in the critical field of forensic science. It could be used to support practical courses on Bayesian statistics and decision theory at both undergraduate and graduate levels, and will be of equal interest to forensic scientists and practitioners of Bayesian statistics for driving their evaluations and the use of R for their purposes

Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R

Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R provides a self-contained introduction to computational Bayesian statistics using R. With its primary focus on Bayes factors supported by data sets, this book features an operational perspective, practical relevance, and applicability—keeping theoretical and philosophical justifications limited. It offers a balanced approach to three naturally interrelated topics: Probabilistic Inference - Relies on the core concept of Bayesian inferential statistics, to help practicing forensic scientists in the logical and balanced evaluation of the weight of evidence. Decision Making - Features how Bayes factors are interpreted in practical applications to help address questions of decision analysis involving the use of forensic science in the law. Operational Relevance - Combines inference and decision, backed up with practical examples and complete sample code in R, including sensitivity analyses and discussion on how to interpret results in context. Over the past decades, probabilistic methods have established a firm position as a reference approach for the management of uncertainty in virtually all areas of science, including forensic science, with Bayes' theorem providing the fundamental logical tenet for assessing how new information—scientific evidence—ought to be weighed. Central to this approach is the Bayes factor, which clarifies the evidential meaning of new information, by providing a measure of the change in the odds in favor of a proposition of interest, when going from the prior to the posterior distribution. Bayes factors should guide the scientist's thinking about the value of scientific evidence and form the basis of logical and balanced reporting practices, thus representing essential foundations for rational decision making under uncertainty. This book would be relevant to students, practitioners, and applied statisticians interested in inference and decision analyses in the critical field of forensic science. It could be used to support practical courses on Bayesian statistics and decision theory at both undergraduate and graduate levels, and will be of equal interest to forensic scientists and practitioners of Bayesian statistics for driving their evaluations and the use of R for their purposes. This book is Open Access

Modeling the forensic two-trace problem with Bayesian networks

The forensic two-trace problem is a perplexing inference problem introduced by Evett (J Forensic Sci Soc 27:375-381, 1987). Different possible ways of wording the competing pair of propositions (i.e., one proposition advanced by the prosecution and one proposition advanced by the defence) led to different quantifications of the value of the evidence (Meester and Sjerps in Biometrics 59:727-732, 2003). Here, we re-examine this scenario with the aim of clarifying the interrelationships that exist between the different solutions, and in this way, produce a global vision of the problem. We propose to investigate the different expressions for evaluating the value of the evidence by using a graphical approach, i.e. Bayesian networks, to model the rationale behind each of the proposed solutions and the assumptions made on the unknown parameters in this proble

L'individualizzazione come decisione

This paper is an Italian translation of the article Biedermann A., Bozza S., Taroni F. 2016, The decisionalization of individualization, Forensic Science International, 266, 29-38, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2016.04.029, with a foreword by Marcello di Bello (Department of Philosophy, Lehman College, City University of New York)

A formal approach to qualifying and quantifying the ‘goodness’ of forensic identification decisions

In this article, we review and analyse common understandings of the degree to which forensic inference of source—also called identification or individualization—can be approached with statistics and is referred to, increasingly often, as a decision. We also consider this topic from the strongly empirical perspective of PCAST (2016) in its recent review of forensic science practice. We will point out why and how these views of forensic identification as a decision, and empirical approaches to it (namely experiments by multiple experts under controlled conditions), provide only descriptive measures of expert performance and of general scientific validity regarding particular forensic branches (e.g. fin- germark examination). Although relevant to help assess whether the identification practice of a given forensic field can be trusted, these empirical accounts do not address the separate question of what ought to be a sensible, or ‘good’ in some sense, (identification-)decision to make in a particular case. The latter question, as we will argue, requires additional considerations, such as decision-making goals. We will point out that a formal approach to qualifying and quantifying the relative merit of competing forensic decisions can be considered within an extended view of statistics in which data analysis and inference are a necessary but not sufficient preliminary

Dynamic signatures: A review of dynamic feature variation and forensic methodology

This article focuses on dynamic signatures and their features. It provides a detailed and critical review of dynamic feature variations and circumstantial parameters affecting dynamic signatures. The state of the art summarizes available knowledge, meant to assist the forensic practitioner in cases presenting extraordinary writing conditions. The studied parameters include hardware-related issues, aging and the influence of time, as well as physical and mental states of the writer. Some parameters, such as drug and alcohol abuse or medication, have very strong effects on handwriting and signature dynamics. Other conditions such as the writer’s posture and fatigue have been found to affect feature variation less severely. The need for further research about the influence of these parameters, as well as handwriting dynamics in general is highlighted. These factors are relevant to the examiner in the assessment of the probative value of the reported features. Additionally, methodology for forensic examination of dynamic signatures is discussed. Available methodology and procedures are reviewed, while pointing out major technical and methodological advances in the field of forensic handwriting examination. The need for sharing the best practice manuals, standard operating procedures and methodologies to favor further progress is accentuated

Normal and pathogenic variation of RFC1 repeat expansions: implications for clinical diagnosis

Cerebellar Ataxia, Neuropathy and Vestibular Areflexia Syndrome (CANVAS) is an autosomal recessive neurodegenerative disease, usually caused by biallelic AAGGG repeat expansions in RFC1. In this study, we leveraged whole genome sequencing (WGS) data from nearly 10,000 individuals recruited within the Genomics England sequencing project to investigate the normal and pathogenic variation of the RFC1 repeat. We identified three novel repeat motifs, AGGGC (n=6 from 5 families), AAGGC (n=2 from 1 family), AGAGG (n=1), associated with CANVAS in the homozygous or compound heterozygous state with the common pathogenic AAGGG expansion. While AAAAG, AAAGGG and AAGAG expansions appear to be benign, here we show a pathogenic role for large AAAGG repeat configuration expansions (n=5). Long read sequencing was used to fully characterise the entire repeat sequence and revealed a pure AGGGC expansion in six patients, whereas the other patients presented complex motifs with AAGGG or AAAGG interruptions. All pathogenic motifs seem to have arisen from a common haplotype and are predicted to form highly stable G quadruplexes, which have been previously demonstrated to affect gene transcription in other conditions. The assessment of these novel configurations is warranted in CANVAS patients with negative or inconclusive genetic testing. Particular attention should be paid to carriers of compound AAGGG/AAAGG expansions, since the AAAGG motif when very large (>500 repeats) or in the presence of AAGGG interruptions. Accurate sizing and full sequencing of the satellite repeat with long read is recommended in clinically selected cases, in order to achieve an accurate molecular diagnosis and counsel patients and their families