783 research outputs found
Nonconcave Robust Optimization with Discrete Strategies under Knightian Uncertainty
We study robust stochastic optimization problems in the quasi-sure setting in
discrete-time. The strategies in the multi-period-case are restricted to those
taking values in a discrete set. The optimization problems under consideration
are not concave. We provide conditions under which a maximizer exists. The
class of problems covered by our robust optimization problem includes optimal
stopping and semi-static trading under Knightian uncertainty.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1610.0923
Ruin probabilities and decompositions for general perturbed risk processes
We study a general perturbed risk process with cumulative claims modelled by
a subordinator with finite expectation, with the perturbation being a
spectrally negative Levy process with zero expectation. We derive a
Pollaczek-Hinchin type formula for the survival probability of that risk
process, and give an interpretation of the formula based on the decomposition
of the dual risk process at modified ladder epochs
Statistical inference framework for source detection of contagion processes on arbitrary network structures
In this paper we introduce a statistical inference framework for estimating
the contagion source from a partially observed contagion spreading process on
an arbitrary network structure. The framework is based on a maximum likelihood
estimation of a partial epidemic realization and involves large scale
simulation of contagion spreading processes from the set of potential source
locations. We present a number of different likelihood estimators that are used
to determine the conditional probabilities associated to observing partial
epidemic realization with particular source location candidates. This
statistical inference framework is also applicable for arbitrary compartment
contagion spreading processes on networks. We compare estimation accuracy of
these approaches in a number of computational experiments performed with the
SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered), SI (susceptible-infected) and ISS
(ignorant-spreading-stifler) contagion spreading models on synthetic and
real-world complex networks
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