Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. An important model input is the at-risk susceptible population, which can vary with a number of factors including climate, elevation, population density, and socio-economic status. We informed this initial condition using the highest historically reported dengue incidence modified by the probable dengue reporting rates in the chosen countries. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number, or the expected number of new human infections arising from a single infected human, to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.Comment: 35 pages, 16 figure

Performance and Fundamental Processes at Low Energy in a Two-Phase Liquid Xenon Dark Matter Detector

We extend the study of the performance of a prototype two-phase liquid xenon WIMP dark matter detector to recoil energies below 20 keV. We demonstrate a new method for obtaining the best estimate of the energies of events using a calibrated sum of charge and light signals and introduce the corresponding discrimination parameter, giving its mean value at 4 kV/cm for electron and nuclear recoils up to 300 and 100 keV, respectively. We show that fluctuations in recombination limit discrimination for most energies, and reveal an improvement in discrimination below 20 keV due to a surprising increase in ionization yield for low energy electron recoils. This improvement is crucial for a high-sensitivity dark matter search.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figures, submitted to DM06 conference proceedings in Nucl Phys

Scintillation Pulse Shape Discrimination in a Two-Phase Xenon Time Projection Chamber

The energy and electric field dependence of pulse shape discrimination in liquid xenon have been measured in a 10 gm two-phase xenon time projection chamber. We have demonstrated the use of the pulse shape and charge-to-light ratio simultaneously to obtain a leakage below that achievable by either discriminant alone. A Monte Carlo is used to show that the dominant fluctuation in the pulse shape quantity is statistical in nature, and project the performance of these techniques in larger detectors. Although the performance is generally weak at low energies relevant to elastic WIMP recoil searches, the pulse shape can be used in probing for higher energy inelastic WIMP recoils.Comment: 7 pages, 11 figure

Exclusion limits on the WIMP-nucleon cross-section from the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search

The Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (CDMS) employs low-temperature Ge and Si detectors to search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) via their elastic-scattering interactions with nuclei while discriminating against interactions of background particles. For recoil energies above 10 keV, events due to background photons are rejected with >99.9% efficiency, and surface events are rejected with >95% efficiency. The estimate of the background due to neutrons is based primarily on the observation of multiple-scatter events that should all be neutrons. Data selection is determined primarily by examining calibration data and vetoed events. Resulting efficiencies should be accurate to about 10%. Results of CDMS data from 1998 and 1999 with a relaxed fiducial-volume cut (resulting in 15.8 kg-days exposure on Ge) are consistent with an earlier analysis with a more restrictive fiducial-volume cut. Twenty-three WIMP candidate events are observed, but these events are consistent with a background from neutrons in all ways tested. Resulting limits on the spin-independent WIMP-nucleon elastic-scattering cross-section exclude unexplored parameter space for WIMPs with masses between 10-70 GeV c^{-2}. These limits border, but do not exclude, parameter space allowed by supersymmetry models and accelerator constraints. Results are compatible with some regions reported as allowed at 3-sigma by the annual-modulation measurement of the DAMA collaboration. However, under the assumptions of standard WIMP interactions and a standard halo, the results are incompatible with the DAMA most likely value at >99.9% CL, and are incompatible with the model-independent annual-modulation signal of DAMA at 99.99% CL in the asymptotic limit.Comment: 40 pages, 49 figures (4 in color), submitted to Phys. Rev. D; v.2:clarified conclusions, added content and references based on referee's and readers' comments; v.3: clarified introductory sections, added figure based on referee's comment

Low-Energy Electron-Track Imaging for a Liquid Argon Time-Projection-Chamber Telescope Concept using Probabilistic Deep Learning

The GammaTPC is an MeV-scale single-phase liquid argon time-projection-chamber gamma-ray telescope concept with a novel dual-scale pixel-based charge-readout system. It promises to enable a significant improvement in sensitivity to MeV-scale gamma-rays over previous telescopes. The novel pixel-based charge readout allows for imaging of the tracks of electrons scattered by Compton interactions of incident gamma-rays. The two primary contributors to the accuracy of a Compton telescope in reconstructing an incident gamma-ray's original direction are its energy and position resolution. In this work, we focus on using deep learning to optimize the reconstruction of the initial position and direction of electrons scattered in Compton interactions, including using probabilistic models to estimate predictive uncertainty. We show that the deep learning models are able to predict locations of Compton scatters of MeV-scale gamma-rays from simulated pixel-based data to better than 0.6 mm RMS error, and are sensitive to the initial direction of the scattered electron. We compare and contrast different deep learning uncertainty estimation algorithms for reconstruction applications. Additionally, we show that event-by-event estimates of the uncertainty of the locations of the Compton scatters can be used to select those events that were reconstructed most accurately, leading to improvement in locating the origin of gamma-ray sources on the sky

Nuclear Shell Model Calculations of Neutralino-Nucleus Cross Sections for Silicon 29 and Germanium 73

We present the results of detailed nuclear shell model calculations of the spin-dependent elastic cross section for neutralinos scattering from \si29 and \ge73. The calculations were performed in large model spaces which adequately describe the configuration mixing in these two nuclei. As tests of the computed nuclear wave functions, we have calculated several nuclear observables and compared them with the measured values and found good agreement. In the limit of zero momentum transfer, we find scattering matrix elements in agreement with previous estimates for \si29 but significantly different than previous work for \ge73. A modest quenching, in accord with shell model studies of other heavy nuclei, has been included to bring agreement between the measured and calculated values of the magnetic moment for \ge73. Even with this quenching, the calculated scattering rate is roughly a factor of 2 higher than the best previous estimates; without quenching, the rate is a factor of 4 higher. This implies a higher sensitivity for germanium dark matter detectors. We also investigate the role of finite momentum transfer upon the scattering response for both nuclei and find that this can significantly change the expected rates. We close with a brief discussion of the effects of some of the non-nuclear uncertainties upon the matrix elements.Comment: 31 pages, figures avaiable on request, UCRL-JC-11408

3D Position Sensitive XeTPC for Dark Matter Search

The technique to realize 3D position sensitivity in a two-phase xenon time projection chamber (XeTPC) for dark matter search is described. Results from a prototype detector (XENON3) are presented.Comment: Presented at the 7th UCLA Symposium on "Sources and Detection of Dark Matter and Dark Energy in the Universe

Synthesis of Black Phosphorene Quantum Dots from Red Phosphorus

Phosphorene quantum dots (PQDs) are most commonly derived from high-cost black phosphorus, while previous syntheses from the low-cost red phosphorus (Pred) allotrope are highly oxidised. Herein, we present an intrinsically scalable method to producing high quality PQDs, by first ball-milling Pred to create nanocrystalline Pblack and subsequent reductive etching using lithium electride solvated in liquid ammonia. The resultant ~25 nm PQDs are crystalline with low oxygen content, and spontaneously soluble as individualized monolayers in tertiary amide solvents, as directly imaged by liquid-phase transmission electron microscopy. This new method presents a scalable route to producing quantities of high quality PQDs for academic and industrial applications