Evaluating ESA CCI Soil Moisture in East Africa

To assess growing season conditions where ground based observations are limited or unavailable, food security and agricultural drought monitoring analysts rely on publicly available remotely sensed rainfall and vegetation greenness. There are also remotely sensed soil moisture observations from missions like the European Space Agency (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and NASAs Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), however these time series are still too short to conduct studies that demonstrate the utility of these data for operational applications, or to provide historical context for extreme wet or dry events. To promote the use of remotely sensed soil moisture in agricultural drought and food security monitoring, we use East Africa as a case study to evaluate the quality of a 30+ year time series of merged active-passive microwave soil moisture from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI-SM). Compared to the Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI) and modeled soil moisture products, we found substantial spatial and temporal gaps in the early part of the CCI-SM record, with adequate data coverage beginning in 1992. From this point forward, growing season CCI-SM anomalies were well correlated (R greater than 0.5) with modeled, seasonal soil moisture, and in some regions, NDVI. We use correlation analysis and qualitative comparisons at seasonal time scales to show that remotely sensed soil moisture can add information to a convergence of evidence framework that traditionally relies on rainfall and NDVI in moderately vegetated regions

Do Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) forecasts improve seasonal soil moisture prediction?, Geophys

ABSTRACT 24 We investigated whether seasonal forecasts from the National Centers fo

Dynamical Forecasts of Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes with the NASA S2S Retrospective Forecast System

Recent advances in the ability to predict climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales allow us to explore the possibility of forecasting carbon flux anomalies. Although carbon flux forecasting is a relatively new concept, it is potentially beneficial as it can help us better understand global and regional land-atmosphere carbon feedbacks associated with climate variations and can provide guidance for future field mission design. Here we evaluate the skill of forecasted terrestrial carbon anomalies generated from meteorological anomalies produced with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) S2S forecast system. We focus here on three representative time periods (the most recent 2015-2016 El Nino, 2011 La Nina, and 2014 as a neutral year), with each corresponding 9-month forecast comprising four ensemble members initialized in the preceding December. The meteorological variables produced by the GMAO forecast system were bias-corrected using a climatology derived from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) before being used to drive a suite of offline simulations with the NASA Catchment-CN terrestrial biosphere model, a model that computes water-energy-carbon dynamics. Forecasts are evaluated by comparing against satellite-driven estimates of gross primary production (GPP) and inverse model estimates of net carbon flux that incorporate satellite carbon dioxide measurements. We find that the restrospectively predicted carbon fluxes in the tropics reasonably reproduce the signs and magnitudes of the observed anomalies between the 2015-2016 El Nino and the 2011 La Nina for both net flux and GPP. For instance, for the El Nino period, the magnitude of the forecasted negative GPP anomaly in the South American tropics (which undergoes anomalously warm and dry conditions) agrees with the observed GPP anomaly at leads of up to three or four months. Overall, this study demonstrates potential skill in the forecast of biospheric carbon fluxes a few months in advance, a capability that could contribute to attribution studies focusing on carbon flux variations and support innovative observation strategies in the future

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill

A review of satellite-based global agricultural monitoring systems available for Africa

Abstract The increasing frequency and severity of extreme climatic events and their impacts are being realized in many regions of the world, particularly in smallholder crop and livestock production systems in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). These events underscore the need for timely early warning. Satellite Earth Observation (EO) availability, rapid developments in methodology to archive and process them through cloud services and advanced computational capabilities, continue to generate new opportunities for providing accurate, reliable, and timely information for decision-makers across multiple cropping systems and for resource-constrained institutions. Today, systems and tools that leverage these developments to provide open access actionable early warning information exist. Some have already been employed by early adopters and are currently operational in selecting national monitoring programs in Angola, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. Despite these capabilities, many governments in SSA still rely on traditional crop monitoring systems, which mainly rely on sparse and long latency in situ reports with little to no integration of EO-derived crop conditions and yield models. This study reviews open-access operational agricultural monitoring systems available for Africa. These systems provide the best-available open-access EO data that countries can readily take advantage of, adapt, adopt, and leverage to augment national systems and make significant leaps (timeliness, spatial coverage and accuracy) of their monitoring programs. Data accessible (vegetation indices, crop masks) in these systems are described showing typical outputs. Examples are provided including crop conditions maps, and damage assessments and how these have integrated into reporting and decision-making. The discussion compares and contrasts the types of data, assessments and products can expect from using these systems. This paper is intended for individuals and organizations seeking to access and use EO to assess crop conditions who might not have the technical skill or computing facilities to process raw data into informational products

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013

Application of a Land Surface Model for Drought Monitoring and Prediction in Washington State

Shukla will provide an introduction to drought modeling. There have been 20 major drought events since 1900. This provided the motivation to develop objective measures of climate and hydrology to help characterize and predict drought in Washington State. He will discuss the issues surrounding current drought assessment, and review the methodology of the current model. He will explain the UW Drought Monitoring System, including performance evaluation. This system is available at: http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/sarp/. Finally, he will provide an overview of future directions in drought models, including a focus on communication of model-based drought information

Towards the Improvement of Drought Monitoring and Prediction in the United States

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2012Drought and heat waves resulted in economic losses of $171 billion in the United States between 1980 and 2007, losses which emphasize the need for a proactive risk management approach for drought management. The motivation for this study is to develop and evaluate approaches and tools to improve drought monitoring and prediction in the U.S., through the use of advanced macroscale hydrologic models and weather/climate forecasts. The value of a macroscale hydrologic model-based Drought Monitoring System (DMS) was assessed in terms of its potential use as a droughtmonitoring tool in Washington State. The results show that had the DMS indicators been available during four major droughts from 1976 on, they would have detected the onset and recovery of drought conditions, in many cases, up to four months before state drought declarations. Subsequently, the relative contributions of the sources of seasonal hydrologic and drought predictability (i.e., initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) and climate forecast skill) were identified over the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS). This analysis indicated that improvement in hydrologic forecasts can result from better knowledge of IHCs in the western U.S. during spring and summer. On the other hand, improved climate forecast skill is needed to improve hydrologic and drought forecast skill in most parts of the northeastern and southeastern U.S. throughout the year and in the western U.S. during fall and winter months. The effect of medium range weather forecast skill (i.e. 14 days) on seasonal hydrologic/drought forecast skill was then investigated. The analysis indicated that medium-range weather forecasts have the potential to improve seasonal hydrologic forecast skill beyond the initial hydrologic condition effect at 1-month leadtime and, in some cases, up to 3 months. Finally, the value of dynamical in contrast with statistical downscaling of seasonal climate forecasts was evaluated in terms of resulting improvement in seasonal hydrologic forecast skill. This analysis identified that dynamical downscaling does somewhat increase the seasonal hydrologic forecast skill over some parts of the Northwestern and North Central U.S

Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of National Multi-Model Ensemble March–April–May precipitation forecasts in equatorial East Africa

In this study we implement and evaluate a simple ‘hybrid’ forecast approach that uses constructed analogs (CA) to improve the National Multi-Model Ensemble’s (NMME) March–April–May (MAM) precipitation forecasts over equatorial eastern Africa (hereafter referred to as EA, 2°S to 8°N and 36°E to 46°E). Due to recent declines in MAM rainfall, increases in population, land degradation, and limited technological advances, this region has become a recent epicenter of food insecurity. Timely and skillful precipitation forecasts for EA could help decision makers better manage their limited resources, mitigate socio-economic losses, and potentially save human lives. The ‘hybrid approach’ described in this study uses the CA method to translate dynamical precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts over the Indian and Pacific Oceans (specifically 30°S to 30°N and 30°E to 270°E) into terrestrial MAM precipitation forecasts over the EA region. In doing so, this approach benefits from the post-1999 teleconnection that exists between precipitation and SSTs over the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans (Indo-Pacific) and EA MAM rainfall. The coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamical forecasts used in this study were drawn from the NMME. We demonstrate that while the MAM precipitation forecasts (initialized in February) skill of the NMME models over the EA region itself is negligible, the ranked probability skill score of hybrid CA forecasts based on Indo-Pacific NMME precipitation and SST forecasts reach up to 0.45