A novel integrated approach of relevance vector machine optimized by imperialist competitive algorithm for spatial modeling of shallow landslides

This research aims at proposing a new artificial intelligence approach (namely RVM-ICA) which is based on the Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) and the Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA) optimization for landslide susceptibility modeling. A Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial database was generated from Lang Son city in Lang Son province (Vietnam). This GIS database includes a landslide inventory map and fourteen landslide conditioning factors. The suitability of these factors for landslide susceptibility modeling in the study area was verified by the Information Gain Ratio (IGR) technique. A landslide susceptibility prediction model based on RVM-ICA and the GIS database was established by training and prediction phases. The predictive capability of the new approach was evaluated by calculations of sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC). In addition, to assess the applicability of the proposed model, two state-of-the-art soft computing techniques including the support vector machine (SVM) and logistic regression (LR) were used as benchmark methods. The results of this study show that RVM-ICA with AUC = 0.92 achieved a high goodness-of-fit based on both the training and testing datasets. The predictive capability of RVM-ICA outperformed those of SVM with AUC = 0.91 and LR with AUC = 0.87. The experimental results confirm that the newly proposed model is a very promising alternative to assist planners and decision makers in the task of managing landslide prone areas

Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Bivariate Statistical-Based Artificial Intelligence Algorithms for Spatial Prediction of Landslides

The purpose of this study is to compare nine models, composed of certainty factors (CFs), weights of evidence (WoE), evidential belief function (EBF) and two machine learning models, namely random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM). In the first step, fifteen landslide conditioning factors were selected to prepare thematic maps, including slope aspect, slope angle, elevation, stream power index (SPI), sediment transport index (STI), topographic wetness index (TWI), plan curvature, profile curvature, land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil, lithology, rainfall, distance to rivers and distance to roads. In the second step, 152 landslides were randomly divided into two groups at a ratio of 70/30 as the training and validation datasets. In the third step, the weights of the CF, WoE and EBF models for conditioning factor were calculated separately, and the weights were used to generate the landslide susceptibility maps. The weights of each bivariate model were substituted into the RF and SVM models, respectively, and six integrated models and landslide susceptibility maps were obtained. In the fourth step, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and related parameters were used for verification and comparison, and then the success rate curve and the prediction rate curves were used for re-analysis. The comprehensive results showed that the hybrid model is superior to the bivariate model, and all nine models have excellent performance. The WoE–RF model has the highest predictive ability (AUC_T: 0.9993, AUC_P: 0.8968). The landslide susceptibility maps produced in this study can be used to manage landslide hazard and risk in Linyou County and other similar areas

Uncertainties of prediction accuracy in shallow landslide modeling: sample size and raster resolution

Understanding landslide characteristics such as their locations, dimensions, and spatial distribution is of highly importance in landslide modeling and prediction. The main objective of this study was to assess the effect of different sample sizes and raster resolutions in landslide susceptibility modeling and prediction accuracy of shallow landslides. In this regard, the Bijar region of the Kurdistan province (Iran) was selected as a case study. Accordingly, a total of 20 landslide conditioning factors were considered with six different raster resolutions and four different sample sizes were investigated. The merit of each conditioning factors was assessed using the Information Gain Ratio (IGR) technique, whereas Alternating decision tree (ADTree), which has been rarely explored for landslide modeling, was used for building models. Performance of the models was assessed using the area under the ROC curve (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, kappa and RMSE criteria. The results show that with increasing the number of training pixels in the modeling process, the accuracy is increased. Findings also indicate that the highest prediction accuracy is derived with the raster resolution of 10 m. With the raster resolution of 20 m, the highest prediction accuracy for the sample size of 80/20% (AUROC = 0.871) and 90/10% (AUROC = 0.864). These outcomes provide a guideline for future research enabling researchers to select an optimal data resolution for landslide hazard modeling

A novel hybrid approach of bayesian logistic regression and its ensembles for landslide susceptibility assessment

A novel artificial intelligence approach of Bayesian Logistic Regression (BLR) and its ensembles [Random Subspace (RS), Adaboost (AB), Multiboost (MB) and Bagging] was introduced for landslide susceptibility mapping in a part of Kamyaran city in Kurdistan Province, Iran. A spatial database was generated which includes a total of 60 landslide locations and a set of conditioning factors tested by the Information Gain Ratio technique. Performance of these models was evaluated using the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) and statistical index-based methods. Results showed that the hybrid ensemble models could significantly improve the performance of the base classifier of BLR (AUROC = 0.930). However, RS model (AUROC = 0.975) had the highest performance in comparison to other landslide ensemble models, followed by Bagging (AUROC = 0.972), MB (AUROC = 0.970) and AB (AUROC = 0.957) models, respectively

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in a Mountainous Area Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Landslides are a dangerous natural hazard that can critically harm road infrastructure in mountainous places, resulting in significant damage and fatalities. The primary purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy of three machine learning algorithms (MLAs) for landslide susceptibility mapping including random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), and support vector machine (SVM). We selected a case study region that is frequently affected by landslides, the important Kamyaran–Sarvabad road in the Kurdistan province of Iran. Altogether, 14 landslide evaluation factors were input into the MLAs including slope, aspect, elevation, river density, distance to river, distance to fault, fault density, distance to road, road density, land use, slope curvature, lithology, stream power index (SPI), and topographic wetness index (TWI). We identified 64 locations of landslides by field survey of which 70% were randomly employed for building and training the three MLAs while the remaining locations were used for validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUC) reached a value of 0.94 for the decision tree compared to 0.82 for the random forest, and 0.75 for support vector machines model. Thus, the decision tree model was most accurate in identifying the areas at risk for future landslides. The obtained results may inform geoscientists and those in decision-making roles for landslide management

A Robust Deep-Learning Model for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: A Case Study of Kurdistan Province, Iran

We mapped landslide susceptibility in Kamyaran city of Kurdistan Province, Iran, using a robust deep-learning (DP) model based on a combination of extreme learning machine (ELM), deep belief network (DBN), back propagation (BP), and genetic algorithm (GA). A total of 118 landslide locations were recorded and divided in the training and testing datasets. We selected 25 conditioning factors, and of these, we specified the most important ones by an information gain ratio (IGR) technique. We assessed the performance of the DP model using statistical measures including sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, F1-measure, and area under-the-receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Three benchmark algorithms, i.e., support vector machine (SVM), REPTree, and NBTree, were used to check the applicability of the proposed model. The results by IGR concluded that of the 25 conditioning factors, only 16 factors were important for our modeling procedure, and of these, distance to road, road density, lithology and land use were the four most significant factors. Results based on the testing dataset revealed that the DP model had the highest accuracy (0.926) of the compared algorithms, followed by NBTree (0.917), REPTree (0.903), and SVM (0.894). The landslide susceptibility maps prepared from the DP model with AUC = 0.870 performed the best. We consider the DP model a suitable tool for landslide susceptibility mapping.Validerad;2022;Nivå 2;2022-02-18 (sofila);Funder: University of Kurdistan, Iran (grant no. 11-99-4469)</p

SEVUCAS: A Novel GIS-Based Machine Learning Software for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment

Since it is not possible to determine the exact time of a natural disaster’s occurrence and the amount of physical and financial damage on humans or the environment resulting from their event, decision-makers need to identify areas with potential vulnerability in order to reduce future losses. In this paper, a GIS-based open source software entitled Seismic-Related Vulnerability Calculation Software (SEVUCAS), based on the Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) method and geographic information system, has been developed to assess seismic vulnerability by considering four groups of criteria (i.e., geotechnical, structural, socio-economic, and physical distance to needed facilities and away from dangerous facilities). The software was developed in C# language using ArcGIS Engine functions, which provide enhanced visualization as well as user-friendly and automatic software for the seismic vulnerability assessment of buildings. Weighting of the criteria (indicators) and alternatives (sub-indicators) was done using SWARA. Also, two interpolation methods based on a radial basis function (RBF) and teaching–learning-based optimization (TLBO) were used to optimize the weights of the criteria and the classes of each alternative as well. After weighing the criteria and alternatives, the weighted overlay analysis was used to determine the final vulnerability map in the form of contours and statistical data. The difference between this software and similar ones is that people with a low level of knowledge in the area of earthquake crisis management can use it to determine and estimate the seismic vulnerabilities of their houses. This visualized operational forecasting software provides an applicable tool for both government and people to make quick and correct decisions to determine higher priority structures for seismic retrofitting implementation

Daily Water Level Prediction of Zrebar Lake (Iran) : A Comparison between M5P, Random Forest, Random Tree and Reduced Error Pruning Trees Algorithms

Zrebar Lake is one of the largest freshwater lakes in Iran and it plays an important role in the ecosystem of the environment, while its desiccation has a negative impact on the surrounded ecosystem. Despite this, this lake provides an interesting recreation setting in terms of ecotourism. The prediction and forecasting of the water level of the lake through simple but practical methods can provide a reliable tool for future lake water resource management. In the present study, we predict the daily water level of Zrebar Lake in Iran through well-known decision tree-based algorithms, including the M5 pruned (M5P), random forest (RF), random tree (RT) and reduced error pruning tree (REPT). We used five different water input combinations to find the most effective one. For our modeling, we chose 70% of the dataset for training (from 2011 to 2015) and 30% for model evaluation (from 2015 to 2017). We evaluated the models’ performances using different quantitative (root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2), percent bias (PBIAS) and ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR)) and visual frameworks (Taylor diagram and box plot). Our results showed that water level with a one-day lag time had the highest effect on the result and, by increasing the lag time, its effect on the result was decreased. This result indicated that all the developed models had a good prediction capability, but the M5P model outperformed the others, followed by RF and RT equally and then REPT. Our results showed that these algorithms can predict water level accurately only with a one-day lag time in water level as an input and they are cost-effective tools for future predictions.Validerad;2020;Nivå 2;2020-09-17 (johcin)</p