Northward range expansion in spring-staging barnacle geese is a response to climate change and population growth, mediated by individual experience

The study was funded by the Norwegian Environment Agency, the Research Council of Norway (the projects ‘LANDRING 134716/720’, ‘AGRIGOOSE 165836’, ‘MIGRAPOP 204342’), the European Union (the project FRAGILE EVK2‐2001‐00235), the County Governor of Nordland, the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust, the Fram Centre in Tromsø and a grant from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research awarded to TO (ref 019.172EN.011).All long-distance migrants must cope with changing environments, but species differ greatly in how they do so. In some species, individuals might be able to adjust by learning from individual experiences and by copying others. This could greatly speed up the process of adjustment, but evidence from the wild is scarce. Here, we investigated the processes by which a rapidly growing population of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) responded to strong environmental changes on spring-staging areas in Norway. One area, Helgeland, has been the traditional site. Since the mid-1990s, an increasing number of geese stage in another area 250 km further north, Vesterålen. We collected data on goose numbers and weather conditions from 1975 to 2017 to explore the extent to which the increase in population size and a warmer climate contributed to this change in staging area use. During the study period, the estimated onset of grass growth advanced on average by 0.54 days/year in each of the two areas. The total production of digestible biomass for barnacle geese during the staging period increased in Vesterålen but remained stable in Helgeland. The goose population has doubled in size during the past 25 years, with most of the growth being accommodated in Vesterålen. The observations suggest that this dramatic increase would not have happened without higher temperatures in Vesterålen. Records of individually marked geese indicate that from the initial years of colonization onwards, especially young geese tended to switch to Vesterålen, thereby predominating in the flocks at Vesterålen. Older birds had a lower probability of switching to Vesterålen, but over the years, the probability increased for all ages. Our findings suggest that barnacle geese integrate socially learned behaviour with adjustments to individual experiences, allowing the population to respond rapidly and accurately to global change.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr(-1) towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr(-1). Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future

Travel schedules to the high arctic: barnacle geese trade-off the timing of migration with accumulation of fat deposits

On their way from the wintering area to the breeding grounds in Spitsbergen, barnacle geese Branta leucopsis stage on islands off the coast of Norway. The aim of this study was to describe when the geese migrate in relation to the body stores deposited and explore questions related to the concept of optimal migration schedules and on the possible mechanisms involved. We estimated fat stores by repeated assessments of the abdominal profile index of individually marked females throughout staging. Reproductive success was derived from observations of the same individuals later in the annual cycle. Females arriving late, or with low fat stores at arrival, achieved higher fat deposition rates, probably by spending more time foraging. But they were unable to match final fat scores of birds that arrived earlier or with larger fat stores. Reproductive success was correlated with the timing of migration and individuals departing at intermediate dates achieved highest success. The exact date of peak reproductive success depended on the size of fat stores accumulated, such that low-quality birds (depositing less fat) benefited most from an early departure to the breeding grounds. Observations in the breeding colonies showed that these birds did not initiate a nest earlier but they spent a longer time in Spitsbergen before settling. The length of stay in Norway was close to the prediction derived from an optimisation model relating spring events to eventual breeding success. Poorest performing birds stayed longer than expected, perhaps depositing more fat to avoid the risk of starvation. Two possible mechanisms of the timing of migration were contrasted and it seemed that the geese departed for migration as soon as they were unable to accumulate any more fat stores

The spring range of barnacle geese Branta leucopsis in relation to changes in land management and climate

This study examines recent changes in the distribution of spring staging barnacle geese Branta leucopsis in Norway. From the early 1980s onwards, two major changes have taken place. First, increasing numbers of geese moved from the traditional islands with a semi-natural vegetation towards agricultural fields on larger islands close to the mainland. Secondly, geese expanded their range by exploring more northerly located islands. Data on food exploitation by geese on the traditional islands were collected to interpret these changes. The density of shoots of edible grasses explained the spatial variation in grazing pressure over the traditional islands. This pattern was caused by intensive grazing of available habitat, where apparently a lower threshold of the intake rate set a limit to the amount of food cropped. It is concluded that the carrying capacity of the traditional islands had been reached. On many of the traditional islands, capacity declined, however, as the vegetation type with the highest density of grasses and most preferred by geese disappeared. This negative development seems to have started when people abandoned the islands and summer grazing by sheep stopped. The declining number of geese that can find sufficient food within the traditional range, in conjunction with the rapidly growing size of the total population, are the main causes for the observed expansion of the population. Increasing spring temperatures and a change in agriculture may have allowed the geese to move to the north, and to invade agricultural areas. To lessen conflicts between geese and farmers on the large islands, two lines of management are available: restoration of management on islands within the traditional range, and enhancing the attractiveness to geese of saltmarshes on the larger islands. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved