2,566 research outputs found
Financial ``Anti-Bubbles'': Log-Periodicity in Gold and Nikkei collapses
We propose that imitation between traders and their herding behaviour not
only lead to speculative bubbles with accelerating over-valuations of financial
markets possibly followed by crashes, but also to ``anti-bubbles'' with
decelerating market devaluations following all-time highs. For this, we propose
a simple market dynamics model in which the demand decreases slowly with
barriers that progressively quench in, leading to a power law decay of the
market price decorated by decelerating log-periodic oscillations. We document
this behaviour on the Japanese Nikkei stock index from 1990 to present and on
the Gold future prices after 1980, both after their all-time highs. We perform
simultaneously a parametric and non-parametric analysis that are fully
consistent with each other. We extend the parametric approach to the next order
of perturbation, comparing the log-periodic fits with one, two and three
log-frequencies, the latter one providing a prediction for the general trend in
the coming years. The non-parametric power spectrum analysis shows the
existence of log-periodicity with high statistical significance, with a
prefered scale ratio of for the Nikkei index for the Gold future prices, comparable to the values obtained for
speculative bubbles leading to crashes.Comment: 14 pages with 4 figure
Studies related to primitive chemistry. A proton and nitrogen-14 nuclear magnetic resonance amino acid and nucleic acid constituents and a and their possible relation to prebiotic
Preliminary proton nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) studies were made to determine the applicability of this technique for the study of interactions between monomeric and polymeric amino acids with monomeric nucleic acid bases and nucleotides. Proton NMR results for aqueous solutions (D2O) demonstrated interactions between the bases cytosine and adenine and acidic and aromatic amino acids. Solutions of 5'-AMP admixed with amino acids exhibited more complex behavior but stacking between aromatic rings and destacking at high amino acids concentration was evident. The multisite nature of 5'-AMP was pointed out. Chemical shift changes for adenine and 5'-AMP with three water soluble polypeptides demonstrated that significant interactions exist. It was found that the linewidth-pH profile of each amino acid is unique. It is concluded that NMR techniques can give significant and quantitative data on the association of amino acid and nucleic acid constituents
Testing for rational speculative bubbles in the Brazilian residential real-estate market
Speculative bubbles have been occurring periodically in local or global real
estate markets and are considered a potential cause of economic crises. In this
context, the detection of explosive behaviors in the financial market and the
implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of critical importance. The
recent increase in Brazilian housing prices has risen concerns that the
Brazilian economy may have a speculative housing bubble. In the present paper,
we employ a recently proposed recursive unit root test in order to identify
possible speculative bubbles in data from the Brazilian residential real-estate
market. The empirical results show evidence for speculative price bubbles both
in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, the two main Brazilian cities
Theory of Fano-Kondo effect of transport properties through quantum dots
The Fano-Kondo effect in zero-bias conductance is investigated based on a
theoretical model for the T-shaped quantum dot. The conductance as a function
of the gate voltage is generally characterized by a Fano asymmetric parameter
q. With varying temperature the conductance shows a crossover between the high
and low temperature regions compared with the Kondo temperature T_K: two Fano
asymmetric peaks at high temperatures and the Fano-Kondo plateau inside a Fano
peak at low temperatures. Temperature dependence of conductance is calculated
numerically by the Finite temperature density matrix renormalization group
method (FT-DMRG).Comment: 8 pages, 7 figure
House price Keynesianism and the contradictions of the modern investor subject
This article conceptualises the marked downturn in UK house prices in the 2007-2009 period in relation to longer-term processes of national economic restructuring centred on a new model of homeownership. The structure of UK house prices has been impacted markedly by the Labour Government‟s efforts to ingrain a particular notion of financial literacy amid the move towards an increasingly asset-based system of welfare. New model welfare recipients and new model homeowners have thereby been co-constituted in a manner consistent with a new UK growth regime of „house price Keynesianism‟. However, the investor subjects who drive such growth are necessarily rendered uncertain as compared with the idealised image of Government policy because of their reliance on the credit-creating decisions of private financial institutions. The recent steep decline in UK house prices is explained here as an epiphenomenon of the disruptive effect on the idealised image caused by the dependence of investor subjects on pricing dynamics not of their making
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The long-term price-earnings ratio
price-earnings ratio;value premium;arbitrage trading rule;UK stock returns;contrarian investment
Abstract:  The price-earnings effect has been thoroughly documented and is the subject of numerous academic studies. However, in existing research it has almost exclusively been calculated on the basis of the previous year's earnings. We show that the power of the effect has until now been seriously underestimated due to taking too short-term a view of earnings. Looking at all UK companies since 1975, using the traditional P/E ratio we find the difference in average annual returns between the value and glamour deciles to be 6%. This is similar to other authors' findings. We are able to almost double the value premium by calculating the P/E ratio using earnings averaged over the previous eight years
Draft Genome Sequence of the Human-Pathogenic Fungus Scedosporium boydii
The opportunistic fungal pathogen Scedosporium boydii is the most common Scedosporium species in French patients with cystic fibrosis. Here we present the first genome report for S. boydii, providing a resource which may enable the elucidation of the pathogenic mechanisms in this species
Constituting monetary conservatives via the 'savings habit': New Labour and the British housing market bubble
The ongoing world credit crunch might well kill off the most recent bubble dynamics in the British housing market by driving prices systematically downwards from their 2007 peak. Nonetheless, the experience of that bubble still warrants analytical attention. The Labour Government might not have been responsible for consciously creating it, but it has certainly grasped the opportunities the bubble has provided in an attempt to enforce a process of agential change at the heart of the British economy. The key issue in this respect is the way in which the Government has challenged the legitimacy of passive welfare receipts in favour of establishing a welfare system based on incorporating the individual into an active asset-holding society. The housing market has taken on new political significance as a means for individuals first to acquire assets and then to accumulate wealth on the back of asset ownership. The ensuing integration of the housing market into an increasingly reconfigured welfare system has permeated into the politics of everyday life. It has been consistent with individuals remaking their political subjectivities in line with preferences for the type of conservative monetary policies that typically keep house price bubbles inflated
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