Bayesian Approach to Zero-Inflated Bivariate Ordered Probit Regression Model, with an Application to Tobacco Use

This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of bivariate ordered probit regression model with excess of zeros. Specifically, in the context of joint modeling of two ordered outcomes, we develop zero-inflated bivariate ordered probit model and carry out estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. Using household tobacco survey data with substantial proportion of zeros, we analyze the socioeconomic determinants of individual problem of smoking and chewing tobacco. In our illustration, we find strong evidence that accounting for excess zeros provides good fit to the data. The example shows that the use of a model that ignores zero-inflation masks differential effects of covariates on nonusers and users

Growth and Nutrients Content and Uptake of Garlic (Allium sativum L.) as Influenced by Different Types of Fertilizers and Soils

Farmers strive to produce high yield and good quality garlic both for  consumption and economic value but soil fertility depletion is among the major impediments to sustained garlic production, especially in the less developed countries, because of limited application of suitable rate, type and sources of fertilizers. Thus, the study was conducted on Andosol and Vertisol soils at Debre Zeit Agricultural Research Center, Ethiopia, for two consecutive (dry and main rainy) seasons to assess the effect of various rates of compound fertilizers on growth, and nutrient content and uptake  of garlic. The treatments consisted of control (unfertilized), one level of recommended NP (92/40 kg ha-1), three levels of Azofertil (100, 200, 300 kg ha-1), four levels of Basic (100, 200, 400, 600 kg ha-1) and three levels of D-coder (100, 200, 400 kg ha-1). The experiment was laid out as a randomized complete block design with three replications at each site. The morphological characters like plant height, neck thickness and leaf  area index of garlic at different growth stages, and the contents and uptake of nutrients like nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and sulphur of the crop were significantly increased due to the applications of higher levels of Azofertil, Basic and D-coder compound fertilizers on Andosol soil during both seasons. However, the lowest growths, and nutrients content and uptake were recorded from the garlic plants fertilized with lower levels of the three compound fertilizers, recommended NP and the control plot, especially on Vertisol. Generally, plant growths, and nutrients contentsand uptake of garlic followed by Azofertil at the rate of 300 kg ha-1 on Andosol during dry season by irrigation

Prevalence, risk factors and antimicrobial susceptibility profile of Salmonella isolated from dogs of Ambo, Bako and Gojo towns of West Shoa, Ethiopia

Salmonella is the most known zoonotic bacterial agent, which produces salmonellosis in animals as wells as in humans. The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence, to determine antimicrobial susceptibility and to assess risk factors associated with Salmonella shedding in dogs in selected towns of West Shoa Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia. Using a cross-sectional design, a total of 438 rectal swab samples were collected from randomly selected dogs for isolation and identification of Salmonella using standard procedures. A questionnaire survey was also administered. The results showed that 48 (11.0%, 95%, [CI]: 8.2% - 14.3 %) dogs were positive for Salmonella. The occurrenceof Salmonella was 10.9% (26/238), 11.6% (15/129) and 9.9% (7/71) in Ambo, Bako and Gojo towns respectively. Salmonella shedding was significantly higher in older dogs (15.0%) than younger ones (6.1 %) (P<0.05). The occurrence of Salmonella was not significantly associated with study towns, sex, breed of dogs,educational level of owners, presence of other domestic animals and housing system (P>0.05). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that the odds of isolation of Salmonella was significantly higher in old than young dogs (OR): 2.6, 95% CI: 1.3-5.6, P=0.007) and in dogs eating mixed type of feeds (raw animal products, household leftover) than cooked feed (OR = 9.0, 95% CI: 1.2 – 68.1, P=0.033). There was also a significant difference between kebeles of the study areas in that Salmonella isolation was nearly nine times higher in Bako Kebele 02 (P=0.005) as compared to Ambo kebele 03. Salmonella isolates have developed the highest level of resistance for ampicillin (100%), tetracycline  (93.3%) and streptomycin (80.0 %), however, all isolates were susceptible to Norfloxacin. The occurrence of Salmonella, most of which resistant to commonly used antimicrobials, in rectal swab samples show the potential threat dogs may pose to public health in the study area.Keywords: Antimicrobial Resistance; Dog; Ethiopia; Prevalence; Risk factor; Salmonell

LINKING SEASONAL PREDICTIONS TO DECISION-MAKING AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN THE GREATER HORN OF AFRICA

Seventy-six participants, including experts from seven countries from the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and project coinvestigators from the United States, met to discuss experimental seasonal prediction models and products for the GHA, to engage decision-makers and users in the assessment of hydroclimatic information requirements, and to use feedback to build a framework to support decision-making and disaster management. In pre- and postworkshop surveys, workshop participants were asked how the utility of forecasts to decision-makers might be improved. Their recommendations are presente

Prevalence, risk factors and antibiogram of Escherichia coli isolated from dogs in Ambo, Gojo and Bako towns of Oromia region, Ethiopia

Dogs are a potential reservoir for Escherichia coli and other zoonotic bacterial pathogens posing the risk of infection to humans and other animals. A crosssectional study was used to collect 438 rectal swab samples from apparently healthy dogs of Ambo, Gojo, and Bako towns of West Shewa Zone with the objectives of investigating the prevalence, risk factors and antibiogram of E. coli. A questionnaire survey was administered at the household level to collect data on potential risk factors to acquire E. coli infection. Prevalence was determined by using standard bacteriological culture techniques. Further  confirmation and antimicrobial susceptibility testing of E. coli using the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) method were  conducted using Automated Phoenix Machine. The overall prevalence of E. coli was found to be 24.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]:20.26-28.49%). The isolation rate of E. coli was the highest in Bako 31.01%, followed by Gojo 30.99% and Ambo 18.49% towns.  Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed that there was a significant association between E. coli prevalence and towns and Kebeles (P<0.05). However, age, sex, the presence of other domestic animals in the household, types of the housing system, educational level of the dogs’ owners, and type of feed provided to the dogs did not significantly correlate with the isolation of E. coli (P > 0.05). E. coli isolates were pan-susceptible to amikacin, ertapenem, imipenem, piperacillin-tazobactam, netilmicin, ampicillin, piperacillin, cefoxitin, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, and meropenem. A low level of resistance was found to aztreonam, ceftriaxone, (each 13.95%), cefazolin (22.73%), gentamicin (11.90%), and trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole (6.97%). E. coli isolates showed multidrug resistance to aztreonam, cefazolin, ceftriaxone, gentamicin, and trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole (14.0%). This demonstrated E. coli prevalence and moderately low antimicrobial resistance  suggests the possible risk of infection of humans. Therefore, raising public awareness about zoonotic canine disease prevention measures and good hygienic practices are essential.. Keywords: Antibiogram, Dog, Escherichia coli, Ethiopia, Prevalence, Risk facto

Constraints of Students’ Mathematical Problem Solving and Proving Skill Competences, the Case of Four preparatory Schools in Guraghe Zone

The objective of this research study was to assess the constraints in the students’ mathematical problem solving and proving skill competences and propose solutions in order to overcome these problems (or the constraints). A mixed design (quantitative and qualitative designs) approach was used to collect data from the concerned stakeholders involved in the teaching and learning of mathematics. The study was carried out at four preparatory schools in four Woredas of Guraghe zone. Purposive sampling approach was used to select the sample Woredas and preparatory schools and simple random sampling approach was used to select sample section and sample students. As a result, 293 students were taken (70 students   were from Yaberus Secondary and preparatory school, 62 students were from Emdibir, 72 students were from Butajera and 89 students were from Abafiransua secondary and preparatory school). Questionnaires were administered to these students in order to collect the data for the study.Results of the research showed that some of the constraints identified were students’ poor potential: to identify and use appropriate mathematical problem solving and proving strategies and mathematical keywords or indicators, to put connections among mathematical concepts and procedures as well as mathematical ideas with different real world situations, to transform givens in to solutions or required, family and society negative attitudes about mathematics. Moreover, teachers’ method of teaching mathematics and lack of opportunity for using any type of technology (computer program and software) aggravated the problem. It was found that the problems are multifaceted and accordingly the solutions require overall effort from all concerned stakeholders

Postpartum anemia and its determinant factors among postnatal women in two selected health institutes in Gondar, Northwest Ethiopia: A facility-based, cross-sectional study

BackgroundAnemia is highly prevalent globally and disproportionately affects postnatal women. It is a significant cause of maternal mortality and morbidity globally.ObjectiveThe main aim of this study was to determine the extent of postpartum anemia and associated factors among postnatal women in two selected health facilities in Gondar, Northwest Ethiopia.MethodsA facility-based, cross-sectional study was conducted among 282 postnatal women from March to May 2021. A systematic sampling technique was used to recruit study participants from each institute. Sociodemographic, obstetric, and clinical data were collected through a semi-structured questionnaire. A venous blood sample was collected to determine the red blood cell parameters. A thin blood smear preparation was performed to examine blood morphology. In addition, direct wet mount and formalin-ether sedimentation techniques were used for stool examination to identify intestinal parasites. Data were entered into EpiData and exported to Stata 14 for statistical analysis. Descriptive statistics were presented in text, tables, and figures. A binary logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with postpartum anemia. A p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant.ResultsThe proportion of postpartum anemia was 47.16%; 95% CI; 41.30–53.03 with moderate, mild, and severe anemia accounting for 45.11, 42.86, and 12.03%, respectively. The majority of the anemia (94%) was of the normocytic normochromic type. It was associated with postpartum hemorrhage (AOR = 2.23; 95% CI: 1.24–4.01), cesarean section (AOR = 4.10; 95% CI: 2.11–7.78), lack of iron and folate supplementation during pregnancy (AOR = 2.12; 95% CI: 1.17–4.02), and low diet diversity level (AOR = 1.83; 95% CI: 1.05–3.18).ConclusionThe prevalence of anemia was found to be a major public health concern. Iron and folate supplementation during pregnancy, improved management of PPH, an effective cesarean section with post-operative care, and taking a diversified diet will reduce the burden. Therefore, identified factors should be considered to prevent and control postpartum anemia

Non-communicable diseases in Ethiopia: policy and strategy gaps in the reduction of behavioral risk factors

Introduction: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide. Over 80% of NCD deaths occur in developing countries. Four modifiable behaviors, namely tobacco use, consumption of unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, and the harmful use of alcohol, contribute to 80% of the NCD burden. Studies show that the vast majority of NCDs can be prevented through behavioral risk-reduction interventions. Properly executed, the interventions could lead to a decrease in the burden of NCDs, ranging from a 30% drop in the prevalence of cancer to a 75% reduction in cardiovascular diseases. This study examined the policy and strategy gaps in the reduction of the modifiable NCD behavioral risk factors in Ethiopia to inform and guide policy-makers and other stakeholders. Methodology: This study used a data triangulation methodology with a sequential, explanatory, mixed-method design conducted in two stages. The authors carried out quantitative analysis on the prevalence and distribution of behavioral risk factors from the Ethiopia NCD STEPwise approach to surveillance (STEPS) survey. Qualitative data on national policies and strategies complemented the analysis of the progress made so far and the existing gaps. Results and Discussion: Ethiopia has made substantial progress in responding to the NCD epidemic by developing a health sector NCD strategic action plan, generating evidence, and setting time-bound national targets on NCD behavioral risk factors. Activities mainly aimed at reducing tobacco use, such as implementation of the ratified WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), using evidence of the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS), and the articulation of legislative measures are ongoing. On this paper our analysis reveals policy and strategy gaps, status in law enforcement, social mobilization, and awareness creation to reduce the major behavioral risk factors. Conclusions: NCDs share common risk factors and risk reduction strategies creates an opportunity for an effective response. However, the national response still needs more effort to have a sufficient impact on the prevention of NCDs in Ethiopia. Thus, there is an urgent need for the country to develop and implement targeted strategies for each behavioral risk factor and design functional, multisectoral coordination. There is also a need for establishing sustainable financial mechanisms, such as increasing program budgets and levying ‘sin taxes,’ to support the NCD prevention and control program. Ethiop. J. Health Dev. 2019; 33(4):259-268] Key words: NCDs, behavioral risk factors, policy, strategy, multisectoral coordination, Ethiopi

Effective coverage of antenatal care services in Ethiopia: a population-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Antenatal care (ANC) is a principal component of safe motherhood and reproductive health strategies across the continuum of care. Although the coverage of antenatal care visits has increased in Ethiopia, there needs to be more evidence of effective coverage of antenatal care. The 'effective coverage' concept can pinpoint where action is required to improve high-quality coverage in Ethiopia. Effective coverage indicates a health system's performance by incorporating need, utilization, and quality into a single measurement. The concept includes the number of contacts, facility readiness, interventions received, and components of services received. This study aimed to measure effective antenatal care coverage in Ethiopia. METHODS: A two-stage cluster sampling method was used and included 2714 women aged 15-49 years and 462 health facilities from six Ethiopian regions from October 2019 to January 2020. The effective coverage cascade was analyzed among the targeted women by computing the proportion who received four or more antenatal care visits where the necessary inputs were available, received iron-folate supplementation and two doses of tetanus vaccination according to process quality components of antenatal care services. RESULTS: Of all women, 40% (95%CI; 38, 43) had four or more visits, ranging from 3% in Afar to 74% in Addis Ababa. The overall mean health facility readiness score of the facilities serving these women was 70%, the vaccination and iron-folate supplementation coverage was 26%, and the ANC process quality was 64%. As reported by women, the least score was given to the quality component of discussing birth preparedness and complication readiness with providers. In the effective coverage cascade, the input-adjusted, intervention-adjusted, and quality-adjusted antenatal coverage estimates were 28%, 18%, and 12%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The overall effective ANC coverage was low, primarily due to a considerable drop in the proportion of women who completed four or more ANC visits. Improving quality of services is crucial to increase ANC up take and completion of the recommended visits along with interventions increasing women's awareness