Simulated mid and early Holocene climate in ECHAM6-FESOM : focus on North Atlantic variability

In the first part of the thesis, changes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Holocene compared to the pre-industrial state are explored in different coupled climate models. Using time-slice integrations by a newly developed global finite-element model ECHAM6-FESOM with unstructured mesh and high resolution, our simulations show an enhanced mid-Holocene AMOC, accompanied by an increase in the ocean salinity over regions of deep water formation. We identify two different processes affecting the AMOC: 1) a more positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) increases water density over the Labrador Sea through anomalous net evaporation and surface heat loss; 2) a decreased import of sea ice from the Arctic causes a freshwater reduction in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Using the coupled model ECHAM6-MPIOM in T63GR15 and T31GR30 grids, we find that the simulated AMOC is strongly affected by the model resolution. Such discrepancy can be attributed to different changes in Labrador Sea density which is mainly affected by 1) NAO-induced net precipitation, 2) freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean, and 3) the strength of AMOC itself. Sensitivity of the simulated climate to the early-Holocene (9k) insolation, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and topography is examined in the second part of the thesis, by performing timeslice experiments under pre-industrial and 9k regimes using ECHAM6-FESOM. Under the early-Holocene orbit and GHGs, the ECHAM6-FESOM simulation shows a warming in boreal summer and a cooling in boreal winter from over mid and high latitudes compared to pre-industrial, with amplification over the continents; as well as a reduction of sea ice in the Arctic and Southern Oceans. A reduced sea ice transport through the Fram Strait leads to a stronger-than-present Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the early-Holocene. Including the early-Holocene topography and continental ice sheet over North America leads to an additional regional cooling year-round. The resulted enhanced sea ice thermodynamic production over Baffin Bay and North Atlantic subpolar gyre is the cause for a more saline surface over the region of deep water formation. There are big discrepancies in the oceanic responses to different locations of freshwater discharge. Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) coastal melting only leads to a freshening over the Gulf Stream and Canary Current, with no meltwater advection to the deep water formation sites, therefore not affecting the strength of the thermohaline circulation. In contrast, adding freshwater into the Labrador Sea produces a significant decrease in ocean salinity over the North Atlantic region from sea surface to 200 m depth, contributing to a decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). All early-Holocene experiments reveal a change of the westerlies over the North Atlantic section, accompanied by a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase, which is led by the corresponding divergence anomalies of the Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux. The enhanced westerly wind at 50 N provides a barrier which prevents the Arctic cold air from invading into the lower latitudes. This circulation change in the atmosphere leads to less frequent episodes of blocking patterns which further results in decreased cold surges over most parts of the Northern Hemisphere continents, in particular the Europe and Asia in the early-Holcene compared to pre-industrial. Finally, the reduced cold air outbreak events, together with a relatively dry atmospheric condition, are the causes for a reduced snowfall over Europe and Asia. Another aim of the thesis (the third part) is to examine to what degree the area-thickness distribution of new ice formed in open water affects the ice and ocean properties. Two sensitivity experiments are performed which modify the horizontal-to-vertical aspect ratio of open-water ice growth. The resulting changes in the Arctic sea-ice concentration strongly affect the surface albedo, the ocean heat release to the atmosphere, and the sea-ice production. Furthermore, our simulations show a positive feedback mechanism among the Arctic sea ice, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the surface air temperature in the Arctic, as the Fram Strait sea ice import influences the freshwater budget in the North Atlantic Ocean. Anomalies in sea-ice transport lead to changes in sea surface properties of the North Atlantic and the strength of AMOC. In reality, the distribution of new ice on open water relies on many uncertain parameters, for example, surface albedo, wind speed and ocean currents. Knowledge of the detailed processes is currently too crude for those processes to be implemented realistically into models. Our sensitivity experiments indicate a pronounced uncertainty related to open-water sea ice growth which could significantly affect the climate system sensitivity

Enhanced Mid-Latitude Meridional Heat Imbalance Induced by the Ocean

The heat imbalance is the fundamental driver for the atmospheric circulation. Therefore, it is crucially important to understand how it responds to global warming. In this study, the role of the ocean in reshaping the atmospheric meridional heat imbalance is explored based on observations and climate simulations. We found that ocean tends to strengthen the meridional heat imbalance over the mid-latitudes. This is primarily because of the uneven ocean heat uptake between the subtropical and subpolar oceans. Under global warming, the subtropical ocean absorbs relatively less heat as the water there is well stratified. In contrast, the subpolar ocean is the primary region where the ocean heat uptake takes place, because the subpolar ocean is dominated by upwelling, strong mixing, and overturning circulation. We propose that the enhanced meridional heat imbalance may potentially contribute to strengthening the water cycle, westerlies, jet stream, and mid-latitude storms

Early-Holocene simulations using different forcings and resolutions in AWI-ESM.

The earliest part of the Holocene, from 11.5k to 7k (k = 1000 years before present), is a critical transition period between the relatively cold last deglaciation and the warm middle Holocene. It is marked by more pronounced seasonality and reduced greenhouse gases (GHGs) than the present state, as well as by the presence of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) and glacial meltwater perturbation. This paper performs experiments under pre-industrial and different early-Holocene regimes with AWI-ESM (Alfred Wegener Institute–Earth System Model), a state-of-the-art climate model with unstructured mesh and varying resolutions, to examine the sensitivity of the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to early-Holocene insolation, GHGs, topography (including properties of the ice sheet), and glacial meltwater perturbation. In the experiments with early-Holocene Earth orbital parameters and GHGs applied, the AWI-ESM simulation shows a JJA (June–July–August) warming and DJF (December–January–February) cooling over the mid and high latitudes compared with pre-industrial conditions, with amplification over the continents. The presence of the LIS leads to an additional regional cooling over the North America. We also simulate the meltwater event around 8.2k. Big discrepancies are found in the oceanic responses to different locations and magnitudes of freshwater discharge. Our experiments, which compare the effects of freshwater release evenly across the Labrador Sea to a more precise injection along the western boundary of the North Atlantic (the coastal region of LIS), show significant differences in the ocean circulation response, as the former produces a major decline of the AMOC and the latter yields no obvious effect on the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Furthermore, proglacial drainage of Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway leads to a fast spin-down of the AMOC, followed, however, by a gradual recovery. Most hosing experiments lead to a warming over the Nordic Sea and Barents Sea of varying magnitudes, because of an enhanced inflow from lower latitudes and a northward displacement of the North Atlantic deep convection. These processes exist in both of our high- and low-resolution experiments, but with some local discrepancies such as (1) the hosing-induced subpolar warming is much less pronounced in the high-resolution simulations; (2) LIS coastal melting in the high-resolution model leads to a slight decrease in the AMOC; and (3) the convection formation site in the low- and high-resolution experiments differs, in the former mainly over northeastern North Atlantic Ocean, but in the latter over a very shallow subpolar region along the northern edge of the North Atlantic Ocean. In conclusion, we find that our simulations capture spatially heterogeneous responses of the early-Holocene climate

Simulated response of the mid-Holocene Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in ECHAM6-FESOM/MPIOM

Changes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the mid‐Holocene compared to the preindustrial state are explored in different coupled climate models. Using time‐slice integrations by a newly developed global finite‐element model ECHAM6‐FESOM with unstructured mesh and high resolution, our simulations show an enhanced mid‐Holocene AMOC, accompanied by an increase in the ocean salinity over regions of deep water formation. We identify two different processes affecting the AMOC: (1) a more positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) increased water density over the Labrador Sea through anomalous net evaporation and surface heat loss; (2) a decreased import of sea ice from the Arctic causes a freshwater reduction in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Using the coupled model ECHAM6‐MPIOM in T63GR15 and T31GR30 grids, we find that the simulated AMOC has significant discrepancy with different model resolutions. In detail, stronger‐than‐present mid‐Holocene AMOC is revealed by simulations with the T63GR15 grid, which resembles the result of ECHAM6‐FESOM, while a decline of the mid‐Holocene AMOC is simulated by the low resolution model with the T31GR30 grid. Such discrepancy can be attributed to different changes in Labrador Sea density which is mainly affected by (1) NAO‐induced net precipitation and deep water convection, (2) freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean, and (3) the strength of AMOC itself. Finally, we analyzed available coupled climate models showing a diversity of responses of AMOC to mid‐Holocene forcings, most of which reveal positive AMOC changes related to northern high latitudes salinification

Decoding the dynamics of poleward shifting climate zones using aqua-planet model simulations

Growing evidence indicates that the atmospheric and oceanic circulation experiences a systematic poleward shift in a warming climate. However, the complexity of the climate system, including the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, natural climate variability and land-sea distribution, tends to obfuscate the causal mechanism underlying the circulation shift. Here, using an idealised coupled aqua-planet model, we explore the mechanism of the shifting circulation, by isolating the contributing factors from the direct CO2 forcing, the indirect ocean surface warming, and the wind-stress feedback from the ocean dynamics. We find that, in contrast to the direct CO2 forcing, ocean surface warming, in particular an enhanced subtropical ocean warming, plays an important role in driving the circulation shift. This enhanced subtropical ocean warming emerges from the background Ekman convergence of surface anomalous heat in the absence of the ocean dynamical change. It expands the tropical warm water zone, causes a poleward shift of the mid-latitude temperature gradient, hence forces a corresponding shift in the atmospheric circulation and the associated wind pattern. The shift in wind, in turn drives a shift in the ocean circulation. Our simulations, despite being idealised, capture the main features of the observed climate changes, for example, the enhanced subtropical ocean warming, poleward shift of the patterns of near-surface wind, sea level pressure, storm tracks, precipitation and large-scale ocean circulation, implying that increase in greenhouse gas concentrations not only raises the temperature, but can also systematically shift the climate zones poleward

Understanding the dynamic of poleward shifting of atmospheric and oceanic circulation using aqua-planet model simulations

Growing evidence suggests that the oceanic and atmospheric circulation experiences a systematic poleward shift under climate change. However, due to the complexity of climate system, such as, the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, natural climate variability and land-sea distribution, the dynamical mechanism of such shift is still not fully understood. Here, using an idealized partially coupled ocean and atmosphere aqua-planet model, we explore the mechanism of the shifting oceanic and atmospheric circulation. We find that, in contrast to the rising GHG concentration, the subtropical ocean warming plays a dominant role in driving the shift in the circulation system. More specifically, due to background ocean dynamics, a relatively faster warming over the subtropical ocean drives a poleward shift in the atmospheric circulation. The shift in the atmospheric circulation in turn drives a shift in the oceanic circulation. Our simulations, despite being idealized, capture the main features of observed climate changes, for example, the enhanced subtropical ocean warming, poleward shift of the patterns of near-surface wind, sea level pressure, cloud, precipitation, storm tracks and large-scale ocean circulation, implying that global warming not only raises the temperature, but also systematically shifts the climate zones

Abrupt climate and weather changes across time scales

The past provides evidence of abrupt climate shifts and changes in the frequency of climate and weather extremes. We explore the non‐linear response to orbital forcing and then consider climate millennial variability down to daily weather events. Orbital changes are translated into regional responses in temperature, where the precessional response is related to nonlinearities and seasonal biases in the system. We question regularities found in climate events by analyzing the distribution of inter‐event waiting times. Periodicities of about 900 and 1150 years are found in ice cores besides the prominent 1500‐years cycle. However, the variability remains indistinguishable from a random process, suggesting that centennial‐to‐millennial variability is stochastic in nature. New numerical techniques are developed allowing for a high resolution in the dynamically relevant regions like coasts, major upwelling regions, and high latitudes. Using this model, we find a strong sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation depending on where the deglacial meltwater is injected into. Meltwater into the Mississippi and near Labrador hardly affect the large‐scale ocean circulation, whereas subpolar hosing mimicking icebergs yields a quasi shutdown. The same multi‐scale approach is applied to radiocarbon simulations enabling a dynamical interpretation of marine sediment cores. Finally, abrupt climate events also have counterparts in the recent climate records, revealing a close link between climate variability, the statistics of North Atlantic weather patterns, and extreme events

Multi-level Gated Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network for State Estimation

The optimality of Bayesian filtering relies on the completeness of prior models, while deep learning holds a distinct advantage in learning models from offline data. Nevertheless, the current fusion of these two methodologies remains largely ad hoc, lacking a theoretical foundation. This paper presents a novel solution, namely a multi-level gated Bayesian recurrent neural network specifically designed to state estimation under model mismatches. Firstly, we transform the non-Markov state-space model into an equivalent first-order Markov model with memory. It is a generalized transformation that overcomes the limitations of the first-order Markov property and enables recursive filtering. Secondly, by deriving a data-assisted joint state-memory-mismatch Bayesian filtering, we design a Bayesian multi-level gated framework that includes a memory update gate for capturing the temporal regularities in state evolution, a state prediction gate with the evolution mismatch compensation, and a state update gate with the observation mismatch compensation. The Gaussian approximation implementation of the filtering process within the gated framework is derived, taking into account the computational efficiency. Finally, the corresponding internal neural network structures and end-to-end training methods are designed. The Bayesian filtering theory enhances the interpretability of the proposed gated network, enabling the effective integration of offline data and prior models within functionally explicit gated units. In comprehensive experiments, including simulations and real-world datasets, the proposed gated network demonstrates superior estimation performance compared to benchmark filters and state-of-the-art deep learning filtering methods

Unraveling the complexities of the Last Glacial Maximum climate: the role of individual boundary conditions and forcings

In order to quantify the relative importance of individual boundary conditions and forcings, including greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and Earth’s orbital parameters, on determining Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate, we have performed a series of LGM experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model AWI-ESM, in which different combinations of boundary conditions and forcings have been applied following the protocol of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). In good agreement with observational proxy records, a general colder and drier climate is simulated in our full-forced LGM experiment as compared to the present-day simulation. Our simulated results from non-full-forced sensitivity simulations reveal that both the greenhouse gases and ice sheets play a major role in defining the anomalous LGM surface temperature compared to today. Decreased greenhouse gases in LGM as compared to present day leads to a non-uniform global cooling with polar amplification effect. The presence of LGM ice sheets favors a warming over the Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans in boreal winter, as well as a cooling over regions with the presence of ice sheets. The former is induced by a strengthening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transporting more heat to high latitudes, whilst the latter is due to the increased surface albedo and elevation of ice sheets. We find that the Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation is influenced by the opposing effects of LGM greenhouse gases and ice sheets. Specifically, the presence of ice sheets leads to significant drying in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, while a reduction in greenhouse gases results in increased monsoon rainfall. Based on our model results, continental ice sheets exert a major control on atmospheric dynamics and the variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Moreover, our analysis also implies a nonlinearity in climate response to LGM boundary conditions and forcings

Learning List-wise Representation in Reinforcement Learning for Ads Allocation with Multiple Auxiliary Tasks

With the recent prevalence of reinforcement learning (RL), there have been tremendous interests in utilizing RL for ads allocation in recommendation platforms (e.g., e-commerce and news feed sites). For better performance, recent RL-based ads allocation agent makes decisions based on representations of list-wise item arrangement. This results in a high-dimensional state-action space, which makes it difficult to learn an efficient and generalizable list-wise representation. To address this problem, we propose a novel algorithm to learn a better representation by leveraging task-specific signals on Meituan food delivery platform. Specifically, we propose three different types of auxiliary tasks that are based on reconstruction, prediction, and contrastive learning respectively. We conduct extensive offline experiments on the effectiveness of these auxiliary tasks and test our method on real-world food delivery platform. The experimental results show that our method can learn better list-wise representations and achieve higher revenue for the platform.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2109.04353, arXiv:2204.0037