The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories. Methods: We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Findings: Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (–4·1% [–5·0 to –3·4]) than in incidence (–1·6% [–1·9 to –1·2]) and prevalence (–0·7% [–1·0 to –0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3–13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8–14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8–12·0). Interpretation: Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis

Empowering African Researchers: Insights from the EVA-GLOBAL Workshops

Die europäische Virus Datenbank “European Virus Archive – GLOBAL (EVAg)” organisierte zusammen mit dem Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI), Arbeitstagungen mit dem Schwerpunkt Diagnose von Viruserkrankungen für Wissenschaftler aus ver­schiedenen Ländern Afrikas. Die Workshops wurden ermög­licht im Rahmen eines EU geförderten Projektes “EVA-GLOBAL” des Horizon 2020-Programms. Insbesondere Techniken zur ef­fizienten Virusdiagnose und Möglichkeiten der Viruskontrolle wurden praktiziert und vorgestellt sowie deren Umsetzung in Ländern mit niedrigen oder mittleren Einkommensniveau (low- and middle-income countries, sogenannten LMICs) leb­haft diskutiert. Die Arbeitstagungen, die im September 2022 und im Februar 2024 stattfanden, umfassten einen theoreti­schen Teil, der auf die Grundlagen der Virologie und Virusdiag­nose einging und ferner dem wissenschaftlichen Austausch für zukünftige Kooperationen und Ausbau des Netzwerkes diente, sowie einem praktischem Teil, der sich sowohl mit der Pro­bennahme, -präparation und –konservierung als auch mit der Extraktion von RNA aus Pflanzengewebe für die RT-PCR als molekulare Nachweismethode sowie die Elektronenmikro­skopie für eine robuste und schnelle Detektion aller Virusarten befasste. Das Hybrid-Format des Arbeitstreffens wurde von den Teilnehmenden begrüßt und konnte den Zuhörerkreis durch die Online-Teilnahme erweitern. Die persönliche Be­gegnung sei es vor Ort oder online und der wissenschaftliche Austausch von Forschenden aus verschiedenen Ländern Afri­kas verstärkte das gemeinsame Ziel durch Virusfrüherkennung und -nachweis, Maßnahmen zur Viruskontrolle zu entwickeln. Das Verhindern von Virusepidemien ist ein wichtiger Faktor für eine nachhaltige und stabile Einkommen garantierende Land­wirtschaft in den Ländern Afrikas.The European Virus Archive – GLOBAL (EVAg), in collaboration with Julius Kuehn Institute (JKI), organized workshops aimed at enhancing virus diagnostics among African researchers. These workshops, funded by the EU’s H2020 program, ad­dressed the critical need for accurate diagnosis in manag­ing viral diseases and combating food insecurity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The workshops, held in September 2022 and February 2024, promoted theoretical lectures on virology, early diagnostics, collaboration, and networking, alongside practical sessions covering sample col­lection, preparation, and preservation as well as RT-PCR and electron microscopy. Participants from various African coun­tries benefitted from both onsite and online lecture models, ensuring broad participation. The initiative reflects a con­certed effort to empower researchers and strengthen global capabilities in virus monitoring, detection and management, offering a promising perspective for improved disease control and agricultural resilience in LMICs

Immunoproteasome Overexpression Underlies the Pathogenesis of Thyroid Oncocytes and Primary Hypothyroidism: Studies in Humans and Mice

BACKGROUND:Oncocytes of the thyroid gland (Hürthle cells) are found in tumors and autoimmune diseases. They have a unique appearance characterized by abundant granular eosinophilic cytoplasm and hyperchromatic nucleus. Their pathogenesis has remained, thus far, unknown. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Using transgenic mice chronically expressing IFNgamma in thyroid gland, we showed changes in the thyroid follicular epithelium reminiscent of the human oncocyte. Transcriptome analysis comparing transgenic to wild type thyrocytes revealed increased levels of immunoproteasome subunits like LMP2 in transgenics, suggesting an important role of the immunoproteasome in oncocyte pathogenesis. Pharmacologic blockade of the proteasome, in fact, ameliorated the oncocytic phenotype. Genetic deletion of LMP2 subunit prevented the development of the oncocytic phenotype and primary hypothyroidism. LMP2 was also found expressed in oncocytes from patients with Hashimoto thyroiditis and Hürthle cell tumors. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:In summary, we report that oncocytes are the result of an increased immunoproteasome expression secondary to a chronic inflammatory milieu, and suggest LMP2 as a novel therapeutic target for the treatment of oncocytic lesions and autoimmune hypothyroidism

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Genetic variation in TLR genes in Ugandan and South African populations and comparison with HapMap data

Genetic epidemiological studies of complex diseases often rely on data from the International HapMap Consortium for identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), particularly those that tag haplotypes. However, little is known about the relevance of the African populations used to collect HapMap data for study populations conducted elsewhere in Africa. Toll-like receptor (TLR) genes play a key role in susceptibility to various infectious diseases, including tuberculosis. We conducted full-exon sequencing in samples obtained from Uganda (n = 48) and South Africa (n = 48), in four genes in the TLR pathway: TLR2, TLR4, TLR6, and TIRAP. We identified one novel TIRAP SNP (with minor allele frequency [MAF] 3.2%) and a novel TLR6 SNP (MAF 8%) in the Ugandan population, and a TLR6 SNP that is unique to the South African population (MAF 14%). These SNPs were also not present in the 1000 Genomes data. Genotype and haplotype frequencies and linkage disequilibrium patterns in Uganda and South Africa were similar to African populations in the HapMap datasets. Multidimensional scaling analysis of polymorphisms in all four genes suggested broad overlap of all of the examined African populations. Based on these data, we propose that there is enough similarity among African populations represented in the HapMap database to justify initial SNP selection for genetic epidemiological studies in Uganda and South Africa. We also discovered three novel polymorphisms that appear to be population-specific and would only be detected by sequencing efforts

Serial measurement of M. tuberculosis in blood from critically-ill patients with HIV-associated tuberculosis

BACKGROUND: Despite being highly prevalent in hospitalised patients with severe HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) and sepsis, little is known about the mycobacteriology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis bloodstream infection (MTBBSI). We developed methods to serially measure bacillary load in blood and used these to characterise MTBBSI response to anti-TB therapy (ATT) and relationship with mortality. METHODS: We established a microscopy method for direct visualisation of M. tuberculosis bacilli in blood using a novel lysis-concentration protocol and the fluorescent probe, 4-N,N-dimethylaminonaphthalimide-trehalose (DMN-Tre). We tested blood using GeneXpert® MTB/RIF-Ultra (Xpert-ultra) and Myco/F lytic culture after processing blood through lysis-wash steps to remove PCR inhibitors and anti-microbial drug carry-over. HIV-positive patients predicted to have MTBBSI gave blood samples 0, 4, 24, 48 and 72 h after ATT initiation. Bacillary loads were quantified using microscopy, Xpert-ultra cycle threshold, and culture time-to-positivity. Pharmacodynamics were modelled using these measures combined on an ordinal scale, including association with 12-week mortality. FINDINGS: M. tuberculosis was detected in 27 of 28 recruited participants; 25 (89%) by blood Xpert-ultra, 22 (79%) by DMN-Tre microscopy, and 21 (75%) by Myco/F lytic blood culture. Eight (29%) participants died by 12-week follow-up. In a combined pharmacodynamic model, predicted probabilities of negative DMN-Tre microscopy, blood Xpert-ultra, or blood culture after 72 h treatment were 0·64, 0·27, and 0·94, respectively, in those who survived, compared with 0·23, 0·06, and 0·71 in those who died (posterior probability of slower clearance of MTBBSI in those that died >0·99). DMN-Tre microscopy of blood demonstrated heterogenous bacillary morphologies, including microcolonies and clumps. Bacillary cell-length varied significantly with ATT exposure (mean cell-length increase 0·13 log-µm/day; 95%CrI 0·10-0·16). INTERPRETATION: Pharmacodynamics of MTBBSI treatment can be captured using DMN-Tre microscopy, blood Xpert-ultra and culture. This could facilitate interventional trials in severe HIV-associated TB. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, NIH Fogarty International Center, South African MRC, NIHR(UK), National Research Foundation of South Africa

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Empowering African Researchers: Insights from the EVA-GLOBAL Workshops

The European Virus Archive – GLOBAL (EVAg), in collaboration with Julius Kuehn Institute (JKI), organized workshops aimed at enhancing virus diagnostics among African researchers. These workshops, funded by the EU’s H2020 program, ad­dressed the critical need for accurate diagnosis in manag­ing viral diseases and combating food insecurity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The workshops, held in September 2022 and February 2024, promoted theoretical lectures on virology, early diagnostics, collaboration, and networking, alongside practical sessions covering sample col­lection, preparation, and preservation as well as RT-PCR and electron microscopy. Participants from various African coun­tries benefitted from both onsite and online lecture models, ensuring broad participation. The initiative reflects a con­certed effort to empower researchers and strengthen global capabilities in virus monitoring, detection and management, offering a promising perspective for improved disease control and agricultural resilience in LMICs