Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change

Weather fluctuations, such as those caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), add to the riskiness associated with agricultural production. Improved predictive capacity may help ameliorate negative impacts of climate and weather shocks on agriculture, but it is possible that the benefits of an improved forecast will be distributed unevenly. In particular, poor farmers may not have access to improved forecasts, or they may not have the means to adapt to new weather information. This paper uses a stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the distributive effects of improved forecasting of ENSO in Mexico. The particular focus is on agriculture, one of the most vulnerable sectors in the face of ENSO, as well as a sector which provides income to many of the country's poorest households. The model is used to investigate the responsiveness of various sectors of the economy under different degrees of improved predictive capacity and improvements in agricultural technology....The results show that while agricultural losses are small as a share of the overall economy, improved forecasting techniques can eliminate these lossesStochastic analysis ,Agriculture Environmental aspects Mexico ,Climatic changes Models ,Agricultural productivity ,Forecasting ,TMD ,

Assessment of the Intake and Knowledge of Folate/Folic Acid Among UNH Students

There are 3,000 U.S. pregnancies affected by spina bifida and anencephaly annually. If women consume adequate amounts of folic acid (400 mcg/day) one month before pregnancy and through the first trimester, then the risk of their infant developing a neural tube defect (NTD) is reduced by 50-70%. However, approximately 50% of pregnancies are unplanned, with some of the highest rates among 18-24 year olds. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the knowledge source, knowledge level, and intake of folic acid among college-aged students. Qualtrics surveys from 96 subjects (87.5% female, aged 18-24) were used for analysis. In the female sample, 16% were taking a multivitamin containing folic acid and 7% a folic acid supplement. Three questions assessed the sample’s level of folic acid knowledge. Seventy-six percent knew adequate amounts are needed to prevent NTDs, 71% knew it is most important to start consuming it before pregnancy, and 54% answered at least half of the correct food sources. There were 19 females who took an introductory nutrition course, and 63.2% correctly answered NTDs, before pregnancy, and at least half the food sources. Subjects who got folic acid knowledge from a college course were significantly more likely to answer the three questions correctly compared to those who never received information on the vitamin. Findings suggested that among college students, the best source of information about folic acid is college courses. Future research may study the correlation between folic acid knowledge and knowledge source among a larger, more diverse college population

A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are used widely in policy analysis. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to and facilitate the use of CGE models. The paper includes a detailed presentation of a “standard” CGE model (an equation-by-equation description) and its required database. It incorporates features developed in recent years in research projects conducted at IFPRI. These features, which are of particular importance in developing countries, include household consumption of non-marketed (or “home”) commodities, explicit treatment of transaction costs for commodities that enter the market sphere, and a separation between producing activities and commodities that permits any activity to produce multiple commodities and any commodity to be produced by multiple activities. The paper discusses the implementation of the model in GAMS (the General Algebraic Modeling System) and is accompanied by a self-extracting zip file, which includes the GAMS files for the model, sample databases, simulations, solution reports, and a SAM aggregation program. Although the paper provides a standardized framework for analysis, the analyst is not forced to make “one-size-fits-all” assumptions. The GAMS code is written in a manner that gives the analyst considerable flexibility in model specification.Household consumption ,economic policies ,mathematical models ,TMD ,

Estimating income mobility in Colombia using maximum entropy econometrics.:

Income mobility can be viewed as a first-order Markov process, with a matrix of transition probabilities which measure how individuals move from an income status in time t to a new status in time t+1. Direct estimation of transition matrices is difficult, since time series panel data are unavailable and limited data on the distribution of income do not suffice to determine the coefficients mathematically, let alone provide enough degrees of freedom for estimation. In this paper, we show that maximum entropy econometrics offers a feasible way to estimate transition matrices using distributional data from Colombia. Using a cross-entropy estimation method, we make efficient use of prior information about the structure of the transition matrices and how they vary with age. The approach is very flexible, allowing the use of “information” in a variety of forms such as inequality constraints, errors in measurement, and prior estimates. Under weak assumptions about the error generation process, we can derive test statistics based on the likelihood ratio measuring the significance of the estimation. The model fits the data well in that the predicted and actual distributions for period t+1 are close. The results show that there is a large degree of upward mobility in Colombia, especially at the bottom of the income distribution and for the younger age cohorts.Income distribution, Econometric models., Colombia. ,

\u27Bootstraps\u27 or \u27Helping Hand:\u27 An Exploration of the Relationship Between Economic Stratification Among Black Americans and Their Racial Attitudes Toward Merit-Based Opportunities and Affirmative Action

Over the last thirty years, much has been written about the increasing disparity between Black Americans who have achieved upward mobility and those at the lower end of the economic spectrum. This dissertation utilizes the General Social Survey (GSS) to contribute to this dialogue on stratification within the Black American community. More specifically, it asks the questions: from 1994-2006 - during the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations - how did socioeconomic status affect Blacks\u27 racial attitudes about themselves? To answer this question, the racial attitudes of a sample of Black Americans of low socioeconomic status will be compared to the racial attitudes of their higher socioeconomic status counterparts across several demographic, attitudinal, and economic variables. The theoretic framework for this investigation includes stratification theory (Weber), group interest theory (Dawson, Shelton & Wilson), and the theory of opportunities and group consciousness (Chong & Kim)

Modulator Property of the Intrinsic Cortical Projection from Layer 6 to Layer 4

Layer 4 of the sensory neocortex receives widespread convergent inputs from thalamic, intracortical, and corticocortical sources. Yet, the relative information bearing roles for most of these pathways remain largely undefined. Here we show that the intracortical projections from layer 6 to layer 4 exhibit a physiological property that is consistent with a modulator role. Using in vitro slice preparations of the auditory and somatosensory cortices, we found that electrical stimulation or photostimulation of layer 6 elicits a prolonged depolarizing response that is attributable to the activation of group 1 metabotropic glutamate receptors. These results complement the known physiological properties of the layer 6 to layer 4 pathway, and further suggest that this pathway is not a principle conduit for information flow, but rather acts as a modulator of cortical activity

Drivers and Modulators in the Central Auditory Pathways

The classic view of auditory information flow depicts a simple serial route from the periphery through tonotopically-organized nuclei in the brainstem, midbrain and thalamus, ascending eventually to the neocortex. Yet, complicating this picture are numerous parallel ascending and descending pathways, whose roles in auditory processing are poorly defined. To address this ambiguity, we have identified several anatomical and physiological properties that distinguish the auditory glutamatergic pathways into two groups that we have termed “drivers” and “modulators”. Driver pathways are associated with information-bearing pathways, while modulator pathways modify these principal information streams. These properties illuminate the potential roles of some previously ill-defined auditory pathways, and may be extended further to categorize either unknown or mischaracterized pathways throughout the auditory system

The Efficacy of Commercial Tooth Storage Media for Maintaining the Viability of Human Periodontal Ligament Fibroblasts

Aim To evaluate Save‐A‐Tooth (SAT), EMT Toothsaver (EMT) and Hank\u27s Balanced Salt Solution (HBSS) for their influence on the viability and proliferative capacity of human periodontal ligament fibroblasts (HPDLFs). Methodology Primary HPDLFs were seeded into 96‐well cell culture plates and exposed to SAT, EMT, HBSS and water (negative control) for 0.5, 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h at room temperature (22 °C). After each exposure time, cell viability was measured through quantifying adenosine triphosphate (ATP) using a luminescent dye. The proliferative capacity was also quantified using the PrestoBlue assay after 12 or 24 h storage in each medium. The data were analysed statistically by two‐way anova and post hoc Least Significant Difference (LSD) test (P \u3c 0.05). The morphology of the cells after 12 h storage was also investigated through live/dead viability/cytotoxicity kit together with fluorescence microscopy. Results There was no significant difference in cell viability amongst HBSS, SAT and EMT groups up to 6 h. SAT was effective in maintaining cell viability only up to 12 h and then became detrimental to HPDLF; after 24 h, the effectiveness of SAT in maintaining cell viability was similar to that of water (P \u3e 0.05). Amongst all the media, only EMT could maintain the proliferative capacity of HPDLFs significantly higher than the negative control, that is water (P \u3c 0.05) after 24 h storage. Conclusion EMT maintained the proliferative capacity of HPDLFs after 24 h storage