A Unified Approach to the Classical Statistical Analysis of Small Signals

We give a classical confidence belt construction which unifies the treatment of upper confidence limits for null results and two-sided confidence intervals for non-null results. The unified treatment solves a problem (apparently not previously recognized) that the choice of upper limit or two-sided intervals leads to intervals which are not confidence intervals if the choice is based on the data. We apply the construction to two related problems which have recently been a battle-ground between classical and Bayesian statistics: Poisson processes with background, and Gaussian errors with a bounded physical region. In contrast with the usual classical construction for upper limits, our construction avoids unphysical confidence intervals. In contrast with some popular Bayesian intervals, our intervals eliminate conservatism (frequentist coverage greater than the stated confidence) in the Gaussian case and reduce it to a level dictated by discreteness in the Poisson case. We generalize the method in order to apply it to analysis of experiments searching for neutrino oscillations. We show that this technique both gives correct coverage and is powerful, while other classical techniques that have been used by neutrino oscillation search experiments fail one or both of these criteria.Comment: 40 pages, 15 figures. Changes 15-Dec-99 to agree more closely with published version. A few small changes, plus the two substantive changes we made in proof back in 1998: 1) The definition of "sensitivity" in Sec. V(C). It was inconsistent with our actual definition in Sec. VI. 2) "Note added in proof" at end of the Conclusio

Observation of Y(2175) in J/ψ→ηϕf0(980)J/\psi\to \eta\phi f_0(980)

The decays of $J/\psi\to \eta\phi f_0(980) (\eta\to \gamma\gamma, \phi \to K^+K^-, f_0(980)\to\pi^+\pi^-)$ are analyzed using a sample of $5.8 \times 10^{7}$ $J/\psi$ events collected with the BESII detector at the Beijing Electron-Positron Collider (BEPC). A structure at around $2.18$GeV/$c^2$ with about $5\sigma$ significance is observed in the $\phi f_0(980)$ invariant mass spectrum. A fit with a Breit-Wigner function gives the peak mass and width of $m=2.186\pm 0.010 (stat)\pm 0.006 (syst)$GeV/$c^2$ and $\Gamma=0.065\pm 0.023 (stat)\pm 0.017 (syst)$GeV/$c^2$, respectively, that are consistent with those of Y(2175), observed by the BABAR collaboration in the initial-state radiation (ISR) process $e^+e^-\to\gamma_{ISR}\phi f_0(980)$. The production branching ratio is determined to be $Br(J/\psi\to\eta Y(2175))\cdot Br(Y(2175)\to\phi f_0(980))\cdot Br(f_0(980)\to\pi^+\pi^-)=(3.23\pm 0.75 (stat)\pm0.73 (syst))\times 10^{-4}$, assuming that the Y(2175) is a $1^{--}$ state.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, accepted by Phys. Rev. Let

Rapid Syphilis Testing Uptake for Female Sex Workers at Sex Venues in Southern China: Implications for Expanding Syphilis Screening

: Accessibility of syphilis testing services is critical in syphilis control programs for female sex workers (FSWs), but few FSWs attend public STI clinics or other testing sites. Introduction of free rapid syphilis testing (RST) into outreach programs for FSWs will help improve test uptake. : Commercial sex venues were identified in two cities in South China. In cooperation with health advocacy organizations, health outreach teams from local public health or medical facilities approached all types of sex venues in study areas to offer free RST. Acceptability and uptake of RST among FSWs were evaluated. : A total of 2812 FSWs were offered RST and 2670 (95.0%) accepted syphilis testing. 182 (6.8%) FSWs had a positive RST result among whom 136 (74.7%) were willing to attend an STD clinic for confirmatory testing and treatment. More than half (89, 66.4%) of those with syphilis were not willing to notify their sex partners. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that syphilis test uptake was associated with residing in Jiangmen (AOR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.15-2.77), older age (AOR, 2.11, 95% CI, 1.17-3.79 for age of 31 years or above), and not working at a service venue (AOR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.10-2.34). : RST at sex venues is well accepted by FSWs when it is integrated into ongoing outreach services. Such programs provide excellent opportunities for expanding syphilis screening efforts among specific subgroups of FSW who are difficult to reach through clinic-based programs.<br/

A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China

This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year (or 9.6 EJ/year), in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around 350 Bcm/year (or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year (or 91.9 EJ/year) around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI (energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found

Partial wave analysis of J/psi to p pbar pi0

Using a sample of 58 million $J/\psi$ events collected with the BESII detector at the BEPC, more than 100,000 $J/\psi \to p\bar p \pi^0$ events are selected, and a detailed partial wave analysis is performed. The branching fraction is determined to be $Br(J/\psi \to p \bar p \pi^0)=(1.33 \pm 0.02 \pm 0.11) \times 10^{-3}$. A long-sought `missing' $N^*$, first observed in $J/\psi \to p \bar n \pi^-$, is observed in this decay too, with mass and width of $2040_{-4}^{+3}\pm 25$ MeV/c$^2$ and $230_{-8}^{+8}\pm 52$ MeV/c$^2$, respectively. Its spin-parity favors ${3/2}^+$. The masses, widths, and spin-parities of other $N^*$ states are obtained as well.Comment: Add one author nam

Observation of χc1\chi_{c1} decays into vector meson pairs ϕϕ\phi\phi, ωω\omega\omega, and ωϕ\omega\phi

Decays of $\chi_{c1}$ to vector meson pairs $\phi\phi$, $\omega\omega$ and $\omega\phi$ are observed for the first time using $(106\pm4)\times 10^6$ \psip events accumulated at the BESIII detector at the BEPCII $e^+e^-$ collider. The branching fractions are measured to be $(4.4\pm 0.3\pm 0.5)\times 10^{-4}$, $(6.0\pm 0.3\pm 0.7)\times 10^{-4}$, and $(2.2\pm 0.6\pm 0.2)\times 10^{-5}$, for $\chi_{c1}\to \phi\phi$, $\omega\omega$, and $\omega\phi$, respectively. The observation of $\chi_{c1}$ decays into a pair of vector mesons $\phi\phi$, $\omega\omega$ and $\omega\phi$ indicates that the hadron helicity selection rule is significantly violated in $\chi_{cJ}$ decays. In addition, the measurement of $\chi_{cJ}\to \omega\phi$ gives the rate of doubly OZI-suppressed decay. Branching fractions for $\chi_{c0}$ and $\chi_{c2}$ decays into other vector meson pairs are also measured with improved precision.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

First Observation of the Decays chi_{cJ} -> pi^0 pi^0 pi^0 pi^0

We present a study of the P-wave spin -triplet charmonium chi_{cJ} decays (J=0,1,2) into pi^0 pi^0 pi^0 pi^0. The analysis is based on 106 million \psiprime decays recorded with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII electron positron collider. The decay into the pi^0 pi^0 pi^0 pi^0 hadronic final state is observed for the first time. We measure the branching fractions B(chi_{c0} -> pi^0 pi^0 pi^0 pi^0)=(3.34 +- 0.06 +- 0.44)*10^{-3}, B(chi_{c1} -> pi^0 pi^0 pi^0 pi^0)=(0.57 +- 0.03 +- 0.08)*10^{-3}, and B(chi_{c2} -> pi^0 pi^0 pi^0 pi^0)=(1.21 +- 0.05 +- 0.16)*10^{-3}, where the uncertainties are statistical and systematical, respectively.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Study of χcJ\chi_{cJ} radiative decays into a vector meson

The decays $\chi_{cJ}\to\gamma V$ ($V=\phi, \rho^0, \omega$) are studied with a sample of radiative \psip\to\gamma\chi_{cJ} events in a sample of (1.06\pm0.04)\times 10^{8} \psip events collected with the BESIII detector. The branching fractions are determined to be: ${\cal B}(\chi_{c1}\to \gamma\phi)=(25.8\pm 5.2\pm 2.3)\times 10^{-6}$, ${\cal B}(\chi_{c1}\to \gamma\rho^0)=(228\pm 13\pm 22)\times 10^{-6}$, and ${\cal B}(\chi_{c1}\to \gamma\omega)=(69.7\pm 7.2\pm 6.6)\times 10^{-6}$. The decay $\chi_{c1}\to \gamma\phi$ is observed for the first time. Upper limits at the 90% confidence level on the branching fractions for $\chi_{c0}$ and \chict decays into these final states are determined. In addition, the fractions of the transverse polarization component of the vector meson in $\chi_{c1}\to \gamma V$ decays are measured to be $0.29_{-0.12-0.09}^{+0.13+0.10}$ for $\chi_{c1}\to \gamma\phi$, $0.158\pm 0.034^{+0.015}_{-0.014}$ for $\chi_{c1}\to \gamma\rho^0$, and $0.247_{-0.087-0.026}^{+0.090+0.044}$ for $\chi_{c1}\to \gamma\omega$, respectively. The first errors are statistical and the second ones are systematic.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure