Rapid emergency assessment of ash and gas hazard for future eruptions at Santorini Volcano, Greece

Hazard assessments for long-dormant volcanoes, where information is rarely available, typically have to be made rapidly and in the face of considerable uncertainty and often poor information. A conditional (assuming an eruption), scenario-based probabilistic approach to such an assessment is presented here for Santorini volcano (Greece). The rapid assessment was developed and implemented in response to the 2011-2012 unrest crisis in order to inform emergency management and planning. This paper synthesises the results presented to the Greek National Committee and scientific community involved. Two plausible eruptions at Santorini were investigated, using multiple inputs and dispersal models, based on observations of historic eruptions and expert judgement. For ash hazard, a 'most likely' eruption scenario was developed, characterised by slow lava extrusion over periods of one to two years with weak but persistent explosions and ash venting up to 3 km. A second 'largest considered' sub-Plinian explosive scenario assumed a 12 km high column of 4-h duration. For gas hazard, constant fluxes of 200 and 800 tons/day SO2 were assumed for the duration of the eruption scenarios, noting that there is very little evidence to constrain SO2 flux from Santorini eruptions. Statistical models of likely wind conditions with height and season were developed from decadal reanalysis time series showing that consistent low-altitude winds were rarely maintained for more than a few days. Stochastic models of ash (TEPHRA2, VOL-CALPUFF) and gas (AERMOD) dispersal provided outputs in the form of probability maps and exceedance probability curves for key loading and concentration thresholds at important locations on the island. The results from the rapid assessments presented in this paper confirm that ash and gas hazard is likely to be of concern if an eruption of Santorini occurs. Higher hazard may be expected to the south and east of the volcano, notably at important tourist and transport hubs. Low hazard to the north and northwest suggests that these may be suitable locations for emergency response centres and emergency critical infrastructure. This approach may provide a blueprint for rapid ash and gas assessment for other long-dormant volcanoes and we provide suggestions for refining the methods used.</p

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in a UK university identifies dynamics of transmission

AbstractUnderstanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission in higher education settings is important to limit spread between students, and into at-risk populations. In this study, we sequenced 482 SARS-CoV-2 isolates from the University of Cambridge from 5 October to 6 December 2020. We perform a detailed phylogenetic comparison with 972 isolates from the surrounding community, complemented with epidemiological and contact tracing data, to determine transmission dynamics. We observe limited viral introductions into the university; the majority of student cases were linked to a single genetic cluster, likely following social gatherings at a venue outside the university. We identify considerable onward transmission associated with student accommodation and courses; this was effectively contained using local infection control measures and following a national lockdown. Transmission clusters were largely segregated within the university or the community. Our study highlights key determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and effective interventions in a higher education setting that will inform public health policy during pandemics.</jats:p

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

Introduction: The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures. Methods: In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025. Findings: Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2–6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p&lt;0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5–5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p&lt;0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4–10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p&lt;0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32–4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP &gt;5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23–11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation. Interpretation: After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification

Identifying Distinct Pre‐Eruptive Composition‐H2O‐Time Trends Using Plagioclase

Abstract Macrocrysts (large crystals) in magmas offer a premier record of pre‐eruptive magma storage conditions encoded in their chemistry and texture. Careful study of macrocryst zoning can deconvolve the conditions of crystal growth and the relative time a magma spends in a given physical‐chemical state prior to eruption. Importantly, identifying discrete macrocryst zones requires consideration of both chemistry and texture simultaneously. Here, we employ a novel image segmentation approach to characterize zoning from 2D chemical maps of plagioclase macrocrysts. We apply the method to 15 volcanic eruptions, across three stratigraphic sections, to track statistical differences in crystal zoning through relative time at an arc volcano (Mount Liamuiga, Saint Kitts). Plagioclase from the 15 eruptions are described by 7 unique textural‐chemical zoning populations, which we term “zoning groups,” each of which has a unique An# fingerprint. Two of the studied stratigraphic sections overwhelmingly record low‐An# zoning groups (ZGs), whereas the other section records mostly high‐An# ZGs, suggestive of two distinct storage conditions. Using observations from equilibrium experiments relevant to Saint Kitts bulk magma compositions, we show that differences in melt H2O are the primary drivers of the An# variability. Negative whole rock K2O versus predicted H2O trends are suggestive of ubiquitous H2O‐saturated conditions throughout the middle and upper crust, with a correlation between H2O‐saturated storage pressure (Psat) and eruptive dynamics; magmas stored in the upper‐crust (0.48 ± 0.28–1.08 ± 0.45 kbar) produce larger‐volume, pumice‐rich eruptions compared to magmas stored in the middle crust (3.29 ± 0.87–3.88 ± 1.05 kbar) which generally produce smaller‐volume, centimeter to decimeter‐thick fall deposits

Does the Shape of a Volcano Reflect Its Personality?

Volcanic eruptions demonstrate that our planet is alive and evolving. Take photos of volcanoes around the Earth and you will see that they all look different, but also share important features. Some volcanoes come in perfect conical shapes, while others are much flatter and harder to spot. This is just like humans, some are tall and others are short, or some have dark hair while others have light hair. This is important because the shape of a volcano can tell scientists about what sort of eruption can occur—the volcano's personality! Humans are different from volcanoes—they can look very similar but have very different personalities. Here, we explain how the different personalities of volcanoes can be defined, and how this can help scientists and people around the world to predict the future impacts of volcanic eruptions

Increased coral biomineralization due to enhanced symbiotic activity upon volcanic ash exposure

International audienceCoral reefs, which are among the most productive ecosystems on earth, are in global decline due to rapid climate change. Volcanic activity also results in extreme environmental changes at local to global scales, and may have significant impacts on coral reefs compared to other natural disturbances. During explosive eruptions, large amounts of volcanic ash are generated, significantly disrupting ecosystems close to a volcano, and depositing ash over distal areas (10s-1000s of km depending on i.a. eruption size and wind direction). Once volcanic ash interacts with seawater, the dissolution of metals leads to a rapid change in the geochemical properties of the seawater column. Here, we report the first known effects of volcanic ash on the physiology and elemental cycling of a symbiotic scleractinian coral under J o u r n a l P r e-p r o o