Re-examining women leaders and military spending

Do women leaders enact more hawkish foreign policies? Some research argues women leaders are more likely to adopt aggressive and masculine characteristics to obtain national office. As a result, women leaders should exhibit more hawkish behavior than men. In this study we re-examine the relationship between the women leaders and foreign policy by focusing on military spending behavior. We argue that conventional empirical methods, such as linear regression, are ill-suited to examine data on women leaders and military spending. These methods are sensitive to outliers and small sample sizes: two characteristics of women leadership. To address these issues, we use the synthetic control method to estimate the military spending behavior of women leaders. By creating unique synthetic counterfactuals for three prominent women leaders – Thatcher, Gandhi, and Meir – we analyze what would have happened if a particular state had a male leader. Generalizing beyond these cases, we also conduct a multiple treatment test that examines the effect of women leadership jointly across multiple countries and time periods. We find that women leaders do not spend more on the military than men. We analyze plausible explanations of these null results and discuss their implications

Why cronies don’t cry? IMF programs, Chinese lending, and leader survival

Many countries in the Global South have increased their exposure to Chinese debt in recent years. With the COVID-19 pandemic and the US interest rate hike, many countries have struggled to meet their debt repayment obligations. As a result, they have turned to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emergency assistance. We argue that the involvement of the Fund wipes out much of the political benefits of China loans for executive leaders of borrowing countries. IMF conditionality requires countries to increase fiscal transparency, which threatens the viability of kickback schemes and increases the likelihood that corrupt leaders will be called out on their misdealing. As a result, we expect corrupt leaders with China debt to leave office earlier when they try to address debt defaults with IMF loans than when they avoid them. Using survival analysis on a dataset of 115 developing countries between 2000 to 2015, we find that leaders indebted to China that go under an IMF program leave office earlier compared to when they do not go under an IMF program. In line with our argument, this effect is strongest in more corrupt regimes. Our argument and analysis contribute to understanding international finance’s political economy, specifically how mixing creditors can be politically risky for leaders

Effect of Sting Geometry on Axial Force Calculation for the Space Launch System

The primary purpose of this study is to determine the extent to which the size and shape of the wind tunnel sting affect the accuracy of the base pressure corrections applied to measured axial force. The study also includes an assessment of the overall accuracy of the corrections. To accomplish these goals, Computational Fluid Dynamics is used to simulate a simplified version of the geometry of the Space Launch System Block 1B Cargo configuration, paired with a range of wind tunnel sting sizes, over a variety of ascent flight conditions. The base pressure correction method used in the wind tunnel is emulated on the base pressures from the simulated flows and results are compared to direct integration of the base pressures. Differences in results between the two methods provides an assessment of the accuracy of the base force correction method and how that accuracy is affected by sting size

Ethnic politics and sovereign credit risk

How does domestic politics affect sovereign credit risk? To date, scholars have largely focused on how economic interests along class-cleavages influence sovereign default risk and borrowing costs. Ethnic dynamics are another important political factor that explains governments’ creditworthiness, yet are understudied. We investigate how ethnic politics shape governments’ credit access and argue that the fiscal incentives generated by ethnic coalitions influence credit risk differently than those created by class cleavages. Because ethnic coalitions are usually smaller than class coalitions, left governments with ethnic support can commit to lower spending and receive more favorable risk assessments. Right governments that rely on ethnic support, however, will have greater spending demands because of their need to satisfy ethnic groups. We test our argument using a new indicator of government ethnic support and four indicators of sovereign credit risk. We find that, in emerging markets, the borrowing costs of right governments increase as they become more dependent on ethnic groups for political support. Our findings suggest that financial markets are attuned to multiple dimensions of domestic politics and demonstrate that ethnic divisions can have strong implications for governments’ access to credit

External threats, capacity, and repression: how the threat of war affects political development and physical integrity rights

How do external threats affect leaders' incentives to repress? We argue that external threats both increase and decrease state repression, but through different causal pathways. Directly, external threats provide leaders with political cover to use repression against political opponents. Indirectly, threats incentivize leaders to augment state capacity, which decreases the likelihood of state repression. To test this argument, we develop a new latent measure of external threat using a Bayesian measurement model. We use mediation analysis to examine the direct and indirect effects of external threats on repression in developing countries from 1980 to 2016. We find that external threats increase government repression directly, but indirectly decrease repression through stronger state capacity. Our findings have implications for how international factors connect to domestic politics to help explain state repression. In addition, our new measure of external threat will help scholars study the consequences of the international threat environment

Comparison of Space Launch System Aerodynamic Surface Pressure Measurements from Experimental Testing and CFD

A comparison of surface pressure coefficient measurements obtained using pressure-sensitive paint (PSP) measurements with predictions from the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code FUN3D is presented for the NASA SLS Block 1B crew vehicle. Overall, the flow features over the SLS configuration were captured by both the PSP data and CFD data at freestream Mach numbers (M(sub )) of 0.8 and 1.3. Overall, the flow features over the SLS are captured by the PSP data but the intensities of large pressure gradients are less intense than what was predicted by the CFD data. Several examples of this observation are given including the flow interaction at the booster nose cone edge, core body, and forward booster attachment hardware at M(sub ) = 0.8

Ascent Aerodynamic Force and Moment Database Development for the Space Launch System

The Space Launch System Aerodynamics Task Team is responsible for delivering aerodynamic force and moment databases from liftoff through ascent until the rocket leaves the Earths atmosphere. The process for developing the ascent portion of this database is described in the current paper. The data used to develop the database were generated using a combination of wind tunnel testing and CFD simulations. The details of the wind tunnel testing performed at the NASA Ames Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel and CFD simulations performed using FUN3D at wind tunnel and flight conditions are discussed, and comparisons of these data sets are provided. The methods used for converting the source data into the final database response surfaces with corresponding uncertainty are also detailed