Modelling the hepatitis C virus disease burden among injecting drug users in Scotland

A forward projection model was used to estimate the numbers of, both current and former, IDUs who acquired HCV infection and progressed to mild, moderate and severe HCV disease in Glasgow and Scotland between 1960 and 2030. The model was developed initially for Glasgow because more epidemiological information exists for this region, than elsewhere in Scotland, to calibrate model outcomes with local data relating to HCV and its consequence. Insights gained from the model fitting process in Glasgow were then used to extend the model to the rest of Scotland. First, the incidence and cessation of injecting drug use in Glasgow during 1960-2000 were derived through the use of a modified Delphi approach. Instead of the usual iterative process to refine experts’ estimates, the elicitation of IDU incidence and cessation provided an opportunity to combine these data and examine coherence with capture-recapture IDU prevalence estimates. Coherent estimates indicated that incidence (median: 28 to 49) and cessation (1 to 24%) remained low and stable during 1960-1975, rose steeply between 1975-1985 (incidence from 49 to 1,335; cessation from 2% to 6%), and by 2000 there had been a decline in incidence (1,195) but a further rise in cessation (15%). Secondly, stochastic simulation was used to model the transmission of HCV among current IDUs in Glasgow, according to their injecting risk behaviours, and estimate the past incidence of HCV infection. The model that considered higher infectivity during acute viraemia following infection produced seroprevalences (median: 62-72%) and incidences (18-30 per 100 susceptible injector-years) consistent with observed data during the 1990s. The annual number of new HCV infections among current IDUs in Glasgow was estimated to be low during 1960-1976 (median: 10-60), rise steeply during 1960-1976 (median: 10-60), rise steeply during the early 1980s to peak in 1985 (1,120), stabilise during 1991-1997 (510-610) and rise again during 1998-2000 (710-780). Scenario analyses indicated that potentially as many as 4,500 HCV infections (10th and 90th percentiles: 2,400-7,700) had been prevented in Glasgow during 1988-2000 as a result of harm-reduction measures. Scenario analyses also permitted the gauging of changes in risk behaviours required to effect appreciable reductions in the incidence of HCV infection. Incidence can be successfully reduced if IDUs who, unavoidably, share needles/syringes confine their borrowing to one person; with this strategy alone, an estimated 5,300 HCV infections (10th and 90th percentiles: 4,100-6,700) could have been averted in Glasgow during 1988-2000. Such insights will inform those responsible for developing new ways to prevent HCV transmission among IDU populations. Thirdly, linkage of laboratory data on diagnosed HCV antibody positive persons in Scotland to clinical data from hospital and death records provided a unique national epidemiological dataset to estimate the number who had progressed to severe HCV disease

Strategies for the treatment of Hepatitis C in an era of interferon-free therapies: what public health outcomes do we value most?

Objective: The expense of new therapies for HCV infection may force health systems to prioritise the treatment of certain patient groups over others. Our objective was to forecast the population impact of possible prioritisation strategies for the resource-rich setting of Scotland. Design: We created a dynamic Markov simulation model to reflect the HCV-infected population in Scotland. We determined trends in key outcomes (e.g. incident cases of chronic infection and severe liver morbidity (SLM)) until the year 2030, according to treatment strategies involving prioritising, either: (A) persons with moderate/advanced fibrosis or (B) persons who inject drugs (PWID). Results: Continuing to treat the same number of patients with the same characteristics will give rise to a fall in incident infection (from 600 cases in 2015 to 440 in 2030) and a fall in SLM (from 195 cases in 2015 to 145 in 2030). Doubling treatment-uptake and prioritising PWID will reduce incident infection to negligible levels (<50 cases per year) by 2025, while SLM will stabilise (at 70–75 cases per year) in 2028. Alternatively, doubling the number of patients treated, but, instead, prioritising persons with moderate/advanced fibrosis will reduce incident infection less favourably (only to 280 cases in 2030), but SLM will stabilise by 2023 (i.e. earlier than any competing strategy). Conclusions: Prioritising treatment uptake among PWID will substantially impact incident transmission, however, this approach foregoes the optimal impact on SLM. Conversely, targeting those with moderate/advanced fibrosis has the greatest impact on SLM but is suboptimal in terms of averting incident infection

Modeling the initiation of others into injection drug use, using data from 2,500 injectors surveyed in Scotland during 2008-2009

The prevalence of injection drug use has been of especial interest for assessment of the impact of blood-borne viruses. However, the incidence of injection drug use has been underresearched. Our 2-fold aim in this study was to estimate 1) how many other persons, per annum, an injection drug user (IDU) has the equivalent of full responsibility (EFR) for initiating into injection drug use and 2) the consequences for IDUs' replacement rate. EFR initiation rates are strongly associated with incarceration history, so that our analysis of IDUs' replacement rate must incorporate when, in their injecting career, IDUs were first incarcerated. To do so, we have first to estimate piecewise constant incarceration rates in conjunction with EFR initiation rates, which are then combined with rates of cessation from injecting to model IDUs' replacement rate over their injecting career, analogous to the reproduction number of an epidemic model. We apply our approach to Scotland's IDUs, using over 2,500 anonymous injector participants who were interviewed in Scotland's Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative during 2008-2009. Our approach was made possible by the inclusion of key questions about initiations. Finally, we extend our model to include an immediate quit rate, as a reasoned compensation for higher-than-expected replacement rates, and we estimate how high initiates' quit rate should be for IDUs' replacement rate to be 1

Commentary : missing targets on drugs-related deaths, and a Scottish paradox

The 10-year drug strategy for England and Wales was published in February 2008. It dropped drugs-related deaths (DRDs) as a key performance indicator. Scotland retained a necessary strong focus on DRDs. Scotland's DRDs numbered 1006 in 2000–02 and 1009 in 2003–05. The previous Scottish administration's claim that its number of current injectors had decreased substantially between 2000 and 2003 implied, paradoxically, that their DRD rate would have to have increased. Worse was to come: Scotland's DRDs had increased to 876 in 2006 + 2007. We analyse UK's DRDs by sex and age-group to reveal temporal trends (2000–02 versus 2003–05 versus 2006 + 2007) with different public health and epidemiological implications. We also address the above Scottish paradox and assess, by age-group, how consistent Scotland's 876 DRDs in 2006 + 2007 are with Scottish injectors’ DRD rate in 2003–05 of around 1 per 100 injector-years. Public health success in the UK in reducing DRDs at younger ages should not be overshadowed by the late consequence in terms of older-age DRDs of UK's injector epidemics; in the early 1980s in Scotland, and late 1980s in England and Wales. Targets for reducing DRDs should pay heed to UK's injector epidemics

Cost-effectiveness of HCV case-finding for people who inject drugs via dried blood spot testing in specialist addiction services and prisons

ObjectivesPeople who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for acquiring hepatitis C virus (HCV), but many are unaware of their infection. HCV dried blood spot (DBS) testing increases case-finding in addiction services and prisons. We determine the cost-effectiveness of increasing HCV case-finding among PWID by offering DBS testing in specialist addiction services or prisons as compared to using venepuncture.DesignCost-utility analysis using a dynamic HCV transmission model among PWID, including: disease progression, diagnosis, treatment, injecting status, incarceration and addition services contact.Setting uk interventionDBS testing in specialist addiction services or prisons. Intervention impact was determined by a meta-analysis of primary data.Primary and secondary outcome measuresCosts (in UK £, £1=US$1.60) and utilities (quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) were attached to each state and the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) determined. Multivariate uncertainty and one-way sensitivity analyses were performed.ResultsFor a £20 000 per QALY gained willingness-to-pay threshold, DBS testing in addiction services is cost-effective (ICER of £14 600 per QALY gained). Under the base-case assumption of no continuity of treatment/care when exiting/entering prison, DBS testing in prisons is not cost-effective (ICER of £59 400 per QALY gained). Results are robust to changes in HCV prevalence; increasing PWID treatment rates to those for ex-PWID considerably reduces ICER (£4500 and £30 000 per QALY gained for addiction services and prison, respectively). If continuity of care is >40%, the prison DBS ICER falls below £20 000 per QALY gained.ConclusionsDespite low PWID treatment rates, increasing case-finding can be cost-effective in specialist addiction services, and in prisons if continuity of treatment/care is ensured

POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF RESTRICTED ACCESS STRATEGIES FOR MULTISPECIES FISHERIES

The commercial fishery that primarily targets king mackerel, stone crab, snappers, groupers and spiny lobster in Monroe and Collier counties is one of the most important commercial fisheries in Florida. These species currently face problems of overfishing and/or over capitalization. A dual-based restricted profit function is used to estimate the economic and technical interactions that exist in this multi-species fishery, primarily using own-price and cross-price elasticities of supply. It is found that the production technology does not exhibit input-output separability and nonjointness-in-inputs over all species groups. This result suggests that these key species may be more efficiently managed as a group, rather than with the use of existing single species regulations. Spiny lobster and stone crab, the dominant value species in the fishery, are shown to have very elastic substitution relationships with king mackerel.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Decrease in health-related quality of life associated with awareness of hepatitis C virus infection among people who inject drugs in Scotland

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection can significantly reduce health-related quality of life (QoL), but it is not clear if reduction is associated with the infection or with being aware of one's infection status. Understanding the impact of a HCV diagnosis on QoL is essential to inform decision-making regarding screening/testing and treatment. Using a cross-sectional design, we assessed QoL in 2898 people who inject drugs (PWID), surveyed in Scotland during 2010 using EQ-5D. Multifactorial regression compared self-reported QoL between PWID who were (i) chronically HCV-infected and aware of their infected status, (ii) chronically HCV-infected but unaware, and (iii) not chronically infected. Median time since onset of injecting was 10years; not chronically infected PWID were younger and had shorter injecting careers than chronically infected PWID. Median EQ-5D was highest for the not chronically infected and the chronic/unaware groups (0.73) compared with the chronic/aware group (0.66). After adjustment for demographic and behavioural co-factors, QoL was significantly reduced in chronic/aware compared with chronic/unaware PWID (adjusted B=-0.09, p=0.005); there was no evidence for a difference in QoL between not chronically infected and chronic/unaware PWID (adjusted B=-0.03, p=0.13). Awareness of one's chronic HCV status was associated with reduced health-related QoL, but there was no evidence for further reduction attributable to chronic infection itself after adjusting for important covariate differences

Increased risk of HIV and other drug-related harms associated with injecting in public places: national bio-behavioural survey of people who inject drugs

Background: Whilst injecting drugs in public places is considered a proxy for high risk behaviour among people who inject drugs (PWID), studies quantifying its relationship with multiple drug-related harms are lacking and none have examined this in the context of an ongoing HIV outbreak (located in Glasgow, Scotland). We aimed to: 1) estimate the prevalence of public injecting in Scotland and associated risk factors; and 2) estimate the association between public injecting and HIV, current HCV, overdose, and skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI). Methods: Cross-sectional, bio-behavioural survey (including dried blood spot testing to determine HIV and HCV infection) of 1469 current PWID (injected in last 6 months) recruited by independent interviewers from 139 harm reduction services across Scotland during 2017–18. Primary outcomes were: injecting in a public place (yes/no); HIV infection; current HCV infection; self-reported overdose in the last year (yes/no) and SSTI the last year (yes/no). Multi-variable logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with public injecting and to estimate the association between public injecting and drug-related harms (HIV, current HCV, overdose and SSTI). Results: Prevalence of public injecting was 16% overall in Scotland and 47% in Glasgow city centre. Factors associated with increased odds of public injecting were: recruitment in Glasgow city centre (aOR=5.45, 95% CI 3.48–8.54, p<0.001), homelessness (aOR=3.68, 95% CI 2.61–5.19, p<0.001), high alcohol consumption (aOR=2.42, 95% CI 1.69–3.44, p<0.001), high injection frequency (≥4 per day) (aOR=3.16, 95% CI 1.93–5.18, p<0.001) and cocaine injecting (aOR=1.46, 95% CI 1.00 to 2.13, p = 0.046). Odds were lower for those receiving opiate substitution therapy (OST) (aOR=0.37, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.56, p<0.001) and older age (per year increase) (aOR=0.97, 95% CI 0.95 to 0.99, p = 0.013). Public injecting was associated with an increased risk of HIV infection (aOR=2.11, 95% CI 1.13–3.92, p = 0.019), current HCV infection (aOR=1.49, 95% CI 1.01–2.19, p = 0.043), overdose (aOR=1.59, 95% CI 1.27–2.01, p<0.001) and SSTI (aOR=1.42, 95% CI 1.17–1.73, p<0.001). Conclusions: These findings highlight the need to address the additional harms observed among people who inject in public places and provide evidence to inform proposals in the UK and elsewhere to introduce facilities that offer safer drug consumption environments

Prevalence and determinants of hepatitis C virus infection among female drug injecting sex workers in Glasgow

Background: Few studies of the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection have focussed on women who work as street sex workers to finance their drug use. Methods: The investigators report the survey findings of such a population in Glasgow. All women attending the health and social care drop-in centre, situated in Glasgow's "Red Light Area", during a four-week period in 1999 were invited to participate in a survey involving theprovision of a saliva sample for anonymous HCV testing and the self-completion of a questionnaire seeking demographic, sexual and injecting practice data. Of the 223 women who attended, 51% agreed to participate. Of the 98 women who provided a sufficient saliva sample, 64% (95% CI: 54%-74%) tested HCV antibody positive; 98% of those who tested positive had ever injected drugs. Adjusting for the 85% sensitivity of the saliva test, the HCV antibody prevalence among IDU sex workers sampled was 81%; a rate which is considerably higher than those recorded, contemporaneously, among Glasgow IDUs generally. Two factors were independently associated with HCV antibody positivity in saliva: ever shared needles and syringes (adjusted OR 5.7, 95% CI 2-16) and number of times imprisoned (adjusted OR 7.3, 95% CI 1.4-39, for more than five times compared to zero times). Women who engage in street sex work to finance their drug habit are a particularly desperate, chaotic and vulnerable population. This study demonstrates that their HCV infection risk may be greater than that for other IDUs. Those responsible for designing interventions to prevent HCV infection among IDUs should consider the special needs of this group