Predicting survival in malignant pleural mesothelioma using routine clinical and laboratory characteristics

Introduction The prognosis of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is poor, with a median survival of 8–12 months. The ability to predict prognosis in MPM would help clinicians to make informed decisions regarding treatment and identify appropriate research opportunities for patients. The aims of this study were to examine associations between clinical and pathological information gathered during routine care, and prognosis of patients with MPM, and to develop a 6-month mortality risk prediction model.Methods A retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with MPM at Queen Alexandra Hospital, Portsmouth, UK between December 2009 and September 2013. Multivariate analysis was performed on routinely available histological, clinical and laboratory data to assess the association between different factors and 6-month survival, with significant associations used to create a model to predict the risk of death within 6 months of diagnosis with MPM.Results 100 patients were included in the analysis. Variables significantly associated with patient survival in multivariate analysis were age (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.56), smoking status (current smoker HR 3.42, 95% CI 1.11 to 4.20), chest pain (HR 2.14, 95% CI 1.23 to 3.72), weight loss (HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.18 to 3.72), platelet count (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.10), urea (HR 2.73, 95% CI 1.31 to 5.69) and adjusted calcium (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.94). The resulting risk model had a c-statistic value of 0.76. A Hosmer-Lemeshow test confirmed good calibration of the model against the original dataset.Conclusion Risk of death at 6 months in patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MPM can be predicted using variables readily available in clinical practice. The risk prediction model we have developed may be used to influence treatment decisions in patients with MPM. Further validation of the model requires evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset

Activity of mevalonate pathway inhibitors against breast and ovarian cancers in the ATP-based tumour chemosensitivity assay

Previous data suggest that lipophilic statins such as fluvastatin and N-bisphosphonates such as zoledronic acid, both inhibitors of the mevalonate metabolic pathway, have anti-cancer effects in vitro and in patients. We have examined the effect of fluvastatin alone and in combination with zoledronic acid in the ATP-based tumour chemosensitivity assay (ATP-TCA) for effects on breast and ovarian cancer tumour-derived cells. Both zoledronic acid and fluvastatin showed activity in the ATP-TCA against breast and ovarian cancer, though fluvastatin alone was less active, particularly against breast cancer. The combination of zoledronic acid and fluvastatin was more active than either single agent in the ATP-TCA with some synergy against breast and ovarian cancer tumour-derived cells. Sequential drug experiments showed that pre-treatment of ovarian tumour cells with fluvastatin resulted in decreased sensitivity to zoledronic acid. Addition of mevalonate pathway components with zoledronic acid with or without fluvastatin showed little effect, while mevalonate did reduced inhibition due to fluvastatin. These data suggest that the combination of zoledronic acid and fluvastatin may have activity against breast and ovarian cancer based on direct anti-cancer cell effects. A clinical trial to test this is in preparation

The in vitro effect of gefitinib ('Iressa') alone and in combination with cytotoxic chemotherapy on human solid tumours

BACKGROUND: Activation of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) triggers downstream signaling pathways that regulate many cellular processes involved in tumour survival and growth. Gefitinib ('Iressa') is an orally active tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) targeted to the ATP-binding domain of EGFR (HER1; erbB1). METHODS: In this study we have used a standardised ATP-based tumour chemosensitivity assay (ATP-TCA) to measure the activity of gefitinib alone or in combination with different cytotoxic drugs (cisplatin, gemcitabine, oxaliplatin and treosulfan) against a variety of solid tumours (n = 86), including breast, colorectal, oesophageal and ovarian cancer, carcinoma of unknown primary site, cutaneous and uveal melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and sarcoma. The IC50 and IC90 were calculated for each single agent or combination. To allow comparison between samples the Index(SUM )was calculated based on the percentage tumour growth inhibition (TGI) at each test drug concentration (TDC). Gefitinib was tested at concentrations ranging from 0.0625–2 microM (TDC = 0.446 microg/ml). This study represents the first use of a TKI in the assay. RESULTS: There was heterogeneity in the degree of TGI observed when tumours were tested against single agent gefitinib. 7% (6/86) of tumours exhibited considerable inhibition, but most showed a more modest response resulting in a low TGI. The median IC50 value for single agent gefitinib in all tumours tested was 3.98 microM. Interestingly, gefitinib had both positive and negative effects when used in combination with different cytotoxics. In 59% (45/76) of tumours tested, the addition of gefitinib appeared to potentiate the effect of the cytotoxic agent or combination (of these, 11% (5/45) had a >50% decrease in their Index(SUM)). In 38% of tumours (29/76), the TGI was decreased when the combination of gefitinib + cytotoxic was used in comparison to the cytotoxic alone. In the remaining 3% (2/76) there was no change observed. CONCLUSION: The in vitro model suggests that gefitinib may have differential effects in response to concomitant cytotoxic chemotherapy with the agents tested during this study. The mechanism involved may relate to the effect of TKIs on growth rate versus their effect on the ability of the cell to survive the stimulus to apoptosis produced by chemotherapy

Multiple pathways of SARS-CoV-2 nosocomial transmission uncovered by integrated genomic and epidemiological analyses during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK

IntroductionThroughout the global COVID-19 pandemic, nosocomial transmission has represented a major concern for healthcare settings and has accounted for many infections diagnosed within hospitals. As restrictions ease and novel variants continue to spread, it is important to uncover the specific pathways by which nosocomial outbreaks occur to understand the most suitable transmission control strategies for the future.MethodsIn this investigation, SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences obtained from 694 healthcare workers and 1,181 patients were analyzed at a large acute NHS hospital in the UK between September 2020 and May 2021. These viral genomic data were combined with epidemiological data to uncover transmission routes within the hospital. We also investigated the effects of the introduction of the highly transmissible variant of concern (VOC), Alpha, over this period, as well as the effects of the national vaccination program on SARS-CoV-2 infection in the hospital.ResultsOur results show that infections of all variants within the hospital increased as community prevalence of Alpha increased, resulting in several outbreaks and super-spreader events. Nosocomial infections were enriched amongst older and more vulnerable patients more likely to be in hospital for longer periods but had no impact on disease severity. Infections appeared to be transmitted most regularly from patient to patient and from patients to HCWs. In contrast, infections from HCWs to patients appeared rare, highlighting the benefits of PPE in infection control. The introduction of the vaccine at this time also reduced infections amongst HCWs by over four-times.DiscussionThese analyses have highlighted the importance of control measures such as regular testing, rapid lateral flow testing alongside polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing, isolation of positive patients in the emergency department (where possible), and physical distancing of patient beds on hospital wards to minimize nosocomial transmission of infectious diseases such as COVID-19

Resistance gene expression determines the in vitro chemosensitivity of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)

Background NSCLC exhibits considerable heterogeneity in its sensitivity to chemotherapy and similar heterogeneity is noted in vitro in a variety of model systems. This study has tested the hypothesis that the molecular basis of the observed in vitro chemosensitivity of NSCLC lies within the known resistance mechanisms inherent to these patients' tumors. Methods The chemosensitivity of a series of 49 NSCLC tumors was assessed using the ATP-based tumor chemosensitivity assay (ATP-TCA) and compared with quantitative expression of resistance genes measured by RT-PCR in a Taqman Array™ following extraction of RNA from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue. Results There was considerable heterogeneity between tumors within the ATP-TCA, and while this showed no direct correlation with individual gene expression, there was strong correlation of multi-gene signatures for many of the single agents and combinations tested. For instance, docetaxel activity showed some dependence on the expression of drug pumps, while cisplatin activity showed some dependence on DNA repair enzyme expression. Activity of both drugs was influenced more strongly still by the expression of anti- and pro-apoptotic genes by the tumor for both docetaxel and cisplatin. The doublet combinations of cisplatin with gemcitabine and cisplatin with docetaxel showed gene expression signatures incorporating resistance mechanisms for both agents. Conclusion Genes predicted to be involved in known mechanisms drug sensitivity and resistance correlate well with in vitro chemosensitivity and may allow the definition of predictive signatures to guide individualized chemotherapy in lung cancer

Cancer cell adaptation to chemotherapy

BACKGROUND: Tumor resistance to chemotherapy may be present at the beginning of treatment, develop during treatment, or become apparent on re-treatment of the patient. The mechanisms involved are usually inferred from experiments with cell lines, as studies in tumor-derived cells are difficult. Studies of human tumors show that cells adapt to chemotherapy, but it has been largely assumed that clonal selection leads to the resistance of recurrent tumors. METHODS: Cells derived from 47 tumors of breast, ovarian, esophageal, and colorectal origin and 16 paired esophageal biopsies were exposed to anticancer agents (cisplatin; 5-fluorouracil; epirubicin; doxorubicin; paclitaxel; irinotecan and topotecan) in short-term cell culture (6 days). Real-time quantitative PCR was used to measure up- or down-regulation of 16 different resistance/target genes, and when tissue was available, immunohistochemistry was used to assess the protein levels. RESULTS: In 8/16 paired esophageal biopsies, there was an increase in the expression of multi-drug resistance gene 1 (MDR1) following epirubicin + cisplatin + 5-fluorouracil (ECF) chemotherapy and this was accompanied by increased expression of the MDR-1 encoded protein, P-gp. Following exposure to doxorubicin in vitro, 13/14 breast carcinomas and 9/12 ovarian carcinomas showed >2-fold down-regulation of topoisomerase IIα (TOPOIIα). Exposure to topotecan in vitro, resulted in >4-fold down-regulation of TOPOIIα in 6/7 colorectal tumors and 8/10 ovarian tumors. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that up-regulation of resistance genes or down-regulation in target genes may occur rapidly in human solid tumors, within days of the start of treatment, and that similar changes are present in pre- and post-chemotherapy biopsy material. The molecular processes used by each tumor appear to be linked to the drug used, but there is also heterogeneity between individual tumors, even those with the same histological type, in the pattern and magnitude of response to the same drugs. Adaptation to chemotherapy may explain why prediction of resistance mechanisms is difficult on the basis of tumor type alone or individual markers, and suggests that more complex predictive methods are required to improve the response rates to chemotherapy

Multiple pathways of SARS-CoV-2 nosocomial transmission uncovered by integrated genomic and epidemiological analyses during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK

INTRODUCTION: Throughout the global COVID-19 pandemic, nosocomial transmission has represented a major concern for healthcare settings and has accounted for many infections diagnosed within hospitals. As restrictions ease and novel variants continue to spread, it is important to uncover the specific pathways by which nosocomial outbreaks occur to understand the most suitable transmission control strategies for the future. METHODS: In this investigation, SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences obtained from 694 healthcare workers and 1,181 patients were analyzed at a large acute NHS hospital in the UK between September 2020 and May 2021. These viral genomic data were combined with epidemiological data to uncover transmission routes within the hospital. We also investigated the effects of the introduction of the highly transmissible variant of concern (VOC), Alpha, over this period, as well as the effects of the national vaccination program on SARS-CoV-2 infection in the hospital. RESULTS: Our results show that infections of all variants within the hospital increased as community prevalence of Alpha increased, resulting in several outbreaks and super-spreader events. Nosocomial infections were enriched amongst older and more vulnerable patients more likely to be in hospital for longer periods but had no impact on disease severity. Infections appeared to be transmitted most regularly from patient to patient and from patients to HCWs. In contrast, infections from HCWs to patients appeared rare, highlighting the benefits of PPE in infection control. The introduction of the vaccine at this time also reduced infections amongst HCWs by over four-times. DISCUSSION: These analyses have highlighted the importance of control measures such as regular testing, rapid lateral flow testing alongside polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing, isolation of positive patients in the emergency department (where possible), and physical distancing of patient beds on hospital wards to minimize nosocomial transmission of infectious diseases such as COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 is associated with greater disease severity among hospitalised women but not men: multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 has been associated with an increased rate of transmission and disease severity among subjects testing positive in the community. Its impact on hospitalised patients is less well documented. METHODS: We collected viral sequences and clinical data of patients admitted with SARS-CoV-2 and hospital-onset COVID-19 infections (HOCIs), sampled 16 November 2020 to 10 January 2021, from eight hospitals participating in the COG-UK-HOCI study. Associations between the variant and the outcomes of all-cause mortality and intensive therapy unit (ITU) admission were evaluated using mixed effects Cox models adjusted by age, sex, comorbidities, care home residence, pregnancy and ethnicity. FINDINGS: Sequences were obtained from 2341 inpatients (HOCI cases=786) and analysis of clinical outcomes was carried out in 2147 inpatients with all data available. The HR for mortality of B.1.1.7 compared with other lineages was 1.01 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.28, p=0.94) and for ITU admission was 1.01 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.37, p=0.96). Analysis of sex-specific effects of B.1.1.7 identified increased risk of mortality (HR 1.30, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.78, p=0.096) and ITU admission (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.90, p=0.011) in females infected with the variant but not males (mortality HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.10, p=0.177; ITU HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.04, p=0.086). INTERPRETATION: In common with smaller studies of patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2, we did not find an overall increase in mortality or ITU admission associated with B.1.1.7 compared with other lineages. However, women with B.1.1.7 may be at an increased risk of admission to intensive care and at modestly increased risk of mortality.This report was produced by members of the COG-UK-HOCI Variant substudy consortium. COG-UK-HOCI is part of COG-UK. COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination