WDPM: the Wetland DEM Ponding Model

Canada First Research Excellence Fund’s Global Water Futures programme, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada’s Discovery Grants programme and by Agriculture and Agri-food CanadaPeer ReviewedThe hydrography of the Canadian Prairies and adjacent northern US Great Plains is unusual in that the landscape is flat and recently formed due to the effects of pleistocene glaciation and a semi-arid climate since holocene deglaciation. Therefore, there has not been sufficient energy, time, or runoff water to carve typical dendritic surface water drainage networks in many locations. In these regions, runoff is often detented and sometimes stored by the millions of depressions (known locally as “potholes” or “sloughs”) that cover the landscape. Conventional hydrological models are unable to simulate the spatial distribution of ponded water in prairie basins dominated by depressional storage. When the depressions are filled, the detented water may overflow to another depression, through a process known as “fill and spill” (Spence & Woo, 2003). Therefore, the fraction of a depression-dominated prairie basin that contributes flow to the outlet changes dynamically with the state of water storage within the basin. The WDPM simulates the spatial distribution of ponded water, as it is added, removed or drained, and can be used to calculate the changing connected/contributing fraction of a prairie basin

Mathematics of FIV and BTB dynamics in buffalo and lion populations at Kruger National Park

A new deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in lion‐buffalo population is designed and used to gain insight into the transmission dynamics of the two diseases in the population. The model is shown to undergo a backward bifurcation (a dynamic phenomenon characterized by the coexistence of the stable disease‐free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity). Two sources for this dynamic phenomenon, namely, the BTB reinfection of exposed buffalos and the BTB‐FIV co‐infection of lions, have been identified. It is shown that, for the special case of the model when backward bifurcation does not occur, the disease‐free equilibrium of the resulting model is globally‐asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Numerical simulations of the model, using initial and demographic data relevant to the BTB‐FIV dynamics in Kruger National Park, show that control strategies, such as the isolation of lions with FIV symptoms or the treatment of lions and buffalos with BTB symptoms, can lead to the effective control or elimination of the disease in the lion‐buffalo population if their effectiveness level is high enough. The time to elimination of any of the two diseases is significantly reduced if the strategies are combined.SMG acknowledges with thanks the support of South African DST/NRF SARChI chair on Math-ematical Models and Methods in Bioengineering and Biosciences (M3B2).http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/mma2019-12-01hj2019Mathematics and Applied Mathematic

[The new 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine for the prevention of S. pneumoniae infections in pediatric age: a Health Technology Assessment]

Questo capitolo sintetizza gli aspetti più rilevanti emersi dalla valutazione HTA del vaccino coniugato antipneumococcico 15-valente (PCV15) per la prevenzione delle infezioni da S. pneumoniae in età pediatrica

The optimal treatment of an infectious disease with two strains

This paper explores the optimal treatment of an infectious disease in a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model, where there are two strains of the disease and one strain is more infectious than the other. The strains are perfectly distinguishable, instantly diagnosed and equally costly in terms of social welfare. Treatment is equally costly and effective for both strains. Eradication is not possible, and there is no superinfection. In this model, we characterise two types of fixed points: coexistence equilibria, where both strains prevail, and boundary equilibria, where one strain is asymptotically eradicated and the other prevails at a positive level. We derive regimes of feasibility that determine which equilibria are feasible for which parameter combinations. Numerically, we show that optimal policy exhibits switch points over time, and that the paths to coexistence equilibria exhibit spirals, suggesting that coexistence equilibria are never the end points of optimal paths

Influence of the topology on the dynamics of a complex network of HIV/AIDS epidemic models

In this paper, we propose an original complex network model for an epidemic problem in an heterogeneous geographical area. The complex network is constructed by coupling nonidentical instances of a HIV/AIDS epidemiological model for which a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium can coexist. After proving the existence of a positively invariant region for the solutions of the complex network problem, we investigate the effect of the coupling on the dynamics of the network, and establish the existence of a unique disease-free equilibrium for the whole network, which is globally asymptotically stable. We prove the existence of an optimal topology that minimizes the level of infected individuals, and apply the theoretical results to the case of the Cape Verde archipelago.This research was partially supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) within projects UID/MAT/04106/2019 (CIDMA) and PTDC/EEI-AUT/2933/2014 (TOCCATTA), co-funded by FEDER funds through COMPETE2020 – Programa Operacional Competitividade e Internacionalizac¸ao (POCI) and by national funds (FCT). Silva is also supported by national funds (OE), through FCT, I.P., in the scope of the framework contract foreseen in the numbers 4, 5 and 6 of the article 23, of the Decree-Law 57/2016, of August 29, changed by Law 57/2017, of July 19.publishe

Modeling the Impact of Exogenous Boosting and Universal Varicella Vaccination on the Clinical and Economic Burden of Varicella and Herpes Zoster in a Dynamic Population for England and Wales

Universal varicella vaccination (UVV) in England and Wales has been hindered by its potential impact on exogenous boosting and increase in herpes zoster (HZ) incidence. We projected the impact of ten UVV strategies in England and Wales on the incidence of varicella and HZ and evaluated their cost-effectiveness over 50 years. The Maternal-Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated transmission model was extended in a dynamically changing, age-structured population. Our model estimated that one- or two-dose UVV strategies significantly reduced varicella incidence (70–92%), hospitalizations (70–90%), and mortality (16–41%) over 50 years. A small rise in HZ cases was projected with UVV, peaking 22 years after introduction at 5.3–7.1% above pre-UVV rates. Subsequently, HZ incidence steadily decreased, falling 12.2–14.1% below pre-UVV rates after 50 years. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 20,000 GBP/QALY, each UVV strategy was cost-effective versus no UVV. Frontier analysis showed that one-dose UVV with MMRV-MSD administered at 18 months is the only cost-effective strategy compared to other strategies. HZ incidence varied under alternative exogenous boosting assumptions, but most UVV strategies remained cost-effective. HZ vaccination decreased HZ incidence with minimal impact on the cost-effectiveness. Introducing a UVV program would significantly reduce the clinical burden of varicella and be cost-effective versus no UVV after accounting for the impact on HZ incidence

Connection to success : an early academic monitoring system for the Ball State University CONNECT Program

The purpose of this creative project was to increase the number of students who successfully transfer to Ball State University via the CONNECT Program and to subsequently increase the retention rates of these students by modifying specific requirements of the program. This project was based upon the understanding that CONNECT students face several obstacles to their success in higher education, largely due to their poor high school academic performance.The goal of this project was to create an early academic monitoring system that will aid in the success of CONNECT Program students in subjects that generally cause difficulty: English, Math, Science, and Foreign Language. Before transfer, CONNECT students entering Ball State in the fall semester would be informed of the early academic monitoring system and would be further notified of its terms during a mandatory Transfer Student Orientation. The early academic monitoring system would act as an early intervention program for these "at-risk" students, as well as a first-year transitioning program, as transfer students will be counseled about their participation, the value of the program, and its duration prior to the start of classes.The methodology of this project calls for the Offices of Admissions, Orientation and Academic Advising and faculty volunteers to closely work together to ensure student success. Ultimately, the combined efforts of these associates should increase CONNECT students retention for their first-year and beyond.Thesis (M.A.)Department of Educational Leadershi

Dynamics of a two-sex model for the population ecology of dengue mosquitoes in the presence of Wolbachia

Please read abstract in the article.https://www.elsevier.com/locate/mbs2021-10-01hj2020Mathematics and Applied Mathematic