The Development of an Empirical Model for Estimation of the Sensitivity to Heat Stress in the Outdoor Workers at Risk

Background: Workers who work in hot environments may be at risk for heat stress. Exposure to heat can result in occupational illnesses, including heat stroke, heat cramps, and heat exhaustion. The risk of exposure to heat depends on individual, environmental, and occupational risk factors. Individual risk factors may decrease the individual’s tolerance to heat stress. Sensitivity as an intrinsic factor may predispose a person to heat stress. Aim: This study was aimed to determine the criteria for sensitivity parameter, specify their weights using the fuzzy Delphi-analytical hierarchy, and finally providing a model to estimate sensitivity. The significant of the study is presenting a model to estimate the sensitivity to heat stress. Materials and Methods: The expert’s opinions were used to extract the criteria in Delphi method. After determining the weight of each criterion, Fuzzy analytic hierarchy Process (FAHP), by mathematical principles matrix and triangular fuzzy numbers, was applied for the prioritization of criteria. Results: According to experts’ viewpoints and considering some exclusion, 10 of 36 criteria were selected. Among 10 selected criteria, age had the highest percentage of responses (90% (27/30)) and its relative weight was 0.063. After age, the highest percentages of response were assigned to the factors of preexisting disease (66.6% (20/30)), body mass index (56.6% (17/30)), work experience (53.3% (16/30)), and clothing (40% (16/30)), respectively. Other effective criteria on sensitivity were metabolic rate, daily water consumption, smoking habits, drugs that interfere with the thermoregulatory processes, and exposure to other harmful agents. Conclusions: Eventually, based on the criteria, a model for estimation of the workers’ sensitivity to heat stress was presented for the first time, by which the sensitivity is estimated in percent.Keywords: Heat stress, Sensitivity, Personal factors, Fuzzy AH

Advances in estimation by the item sum technique using auxiliary information in complex surveys

To collect sensitive data, survey statisticians have designed many strategies to reduce nonresponse rates and social desirability response bias. In recent years, the item count technique (ICT) has gained considerable popularity and credibility as an alternative mode of indirect questioning survey, and several variants of this technique have been proposed as new needs and challenges arise. The item sum technique (IST), which was introduced by Chaudhuri and Christofides (2013) and Trappmann et al. (2014), is one such variant, used to estimate the mean of a sensitive quantitative variable. In this approach, sampled units are asked to respond to a two-list of items containing a sensitive question related to the study variable and various innocuous, nonsensitive, questions. To the best of our knowledge, very few theoretical and applied papers have addressed the IST. In this article, therefore, we present certain methodological advances as a contribution to appraising the use of the IST in real-world surveys. In particular, we employ a generic sampling design to examine the problem of how to improve the estimates of the sensitive mean when auxiliary information on the population under study is available and is used at the design and estimation stages. A Horvitz-Thompson type estimator and a calibration type estimator are proposed and their efficiency is evaluated by means of an extensive simulation study. Using simulation experiments, we show that estimates obtained by the IST are nearly equivalent to those obtained using “true data” and that in general they outperform the estimates provided by a competitive randomized response method. Moreover, the variance estimation may be considered satisfactory. These results open up new perspectives for academics, researchers and survey practitioners, and could justify the use of the IST as a valid alternative to traditional direct questioning survey modes.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad of SpainMinisterio de Educacion, Cultura y Deporteproject PRIN-SURWE

Imaging of activated complement using ultrasmall superparamagnetic iron oxide particles (USPIO) - conjugated vectors: an in vivo in utero non-invasive method to predict placental insufficiency and abnormal fetal brain development.

In the current study, we have developed a magnetic resonance imaging-based method for non-invasive detection ofcomplement activation in placenta and foetal brain in vivo in utero. Using this method, we found that anti-complementC3-targeted ultrasmall superparamagnetic iron oxide (USPIO) nanoparticles bind within the inflamed placenta and foetal braincortical tissue, causing a shortening of the T2* relaxation time. We used two mouse models of pregnancy complications: a mousemodel of obstetrics antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) and a mouse model of preterm birth (PTB). We found that detection of C3deposition in the placenta in the APS model was associated with placental insufficiency characterised by increased oxidative stress,decreased vascular endothelial growth factor and placental growth factor levels and intrauterine growth restriction. We alsofound that foetal brain C3 deposition was associated with cortical axonal cytoarchitecture disruption and increasedneurodegeneration in the mouse model of APS and in the PTB model. In the APS model, foetuses that showed increased C3in their brains additionally expressed anxiety-related behaviour after birth. Importantly, USPIO did not affect pregnancyoutcomes and liver function in the mother and the offspring, suggesting that this method may be useful for detecting complementactivation in vivo in utero and predicting placental insufficiency and abnormal foetal neurodevelopment that leads toneuropsychiatric disorders

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Integrated Multi-Parameter Exploration Footprints of the Canadian Malartic Disseminated Au, McArthur River-Millennium Unconformity U, and Highland Valley Porphyry Cu Deposits: Preliminary Results from the NSERC-CMIC Mineral Exploration Footprints Research Network

Mineral exploration in Canada is increasingly focused on concealed and deeply buried targets, requiring more effective tools to detect large-scale ore-forming systems and to vector from their most distal margins to their high grade cores. A new generation of ore system models is required to achieve this. The Mineral Exploration Footprints Research Network is a consortium of 70 faculty, research associates, and students from 20 Canadian universities working with 30 mining, mineral exploration, and mining service providers to develop new approaches to ore system modelling based on more effective integration and visualization of multi-parameter geological-structural-mineralogical-lithogeochemical-petrophysical-geophysical exploration data. The Network is developing the next generation ore system models and exploration strategies at three sites based on integrated data visualization using self-consistent 3D Common Earth Models and geostatistical/machine learning technologies. Thus far over 60 footprint components and vectors have been identified at the Canadian Malartic stockwork-disseminated Au deposit, 20–30 at the McArthur-Millennium unconformity U deposits, and over 20 in the Highland Valley porphyry Cu system. For the first time, these are being assembled into comprehensive models that will serve as landmark case studies for data integration and analysis in the today’s challenging exploration environment

The Effects of 12 Sessions of Mirror Therapy on Postural Control Kinetic Variables of Amputation below the Knee in Terms of the Manipulation of Afferent Information

Abstract Background & aim: Mirror therapy is a relatively new intervention which focuses on moving the defective part in front of the mirror. The intervention is proposed to be an important implement to improve stability during rehabilitation program of the amputee. The present study aimed to evaluate the effects of 12 sessions of mirror therapy on postural control kinetic variables of amputees when manipulating sensory information. Methods: In the present quasi-experimental study with pretest-posttest and random group design, 14 below knee amputees (n =7 control and n =7 experimental) were enrolled. The experimental group engaged in 12 session of exercise therapy in front of mirror, but the control group just did their daily routine activities without any intervention. To asses postural control, Computerized Dynamic Posturography was used which shows the balance score according to two variables of stability and displacement of the center of gravity while manipulating sensory organization in 6 conditions (absence or presence of vision, presence or manipulation of vestibular and kinesthetic information). For data analysis, multiple analysis of variance (MANOVA) with repeated measures and Bonferroni post-hoc test were used. Results: The results indicated that postural control improved in the experimental group compared to the control group in all six sensory manipulation conditions. The balance improvement in the mirror therapy group in the first condition (existence of three senses of vision, vestibular and kinesthetic) and second condition (elimination of sight and presence of vestibular and kinesthetic information) was higher than other circumstances. Balance scores were worse in condition 6 (manipulation of vestibular and kinesthetic) in the control group compared to other sensory conditions. Conclusion: Findings of the research revealed that 12 sessions of mirror therapy can improve balance in people with below knee amputations. Moreover, application of mirror in exercise sessions can reduce the amplitude of fluctuation and increase alignment and strategies, which helps promotion of balance control

Data analysis of potential field methods using geostatistics

Processing of potential field data is commonly done by spectral methods because of their low computational complexity. However, we have studied some geostatistical methods to process the potential field data, and we find the advantages of using these spatial methods. First, we investigate transformation of data by kriging using a gravimetric model of covariance, we compare this approach with the spectral method, and we find its advantage when the data were sparse and not on a regular grid using a synthetic example as well as a field data example. Then, we use factorial kriging for noise reduction and separation of the regional and residual components. This method does not have some of the practical limitations that the spectral-based methods encounter. Finally, we determine the flexibility of interpolation using nonstationary covariances. </jats:p