Beta Risk and Regime Shift in Market Volatility

In this paper, we relate security returns in the thirty securities in the Dow Jones index to regime shifts in the market portfolio (S&P500) volatility. We model market volatility as a multiple-state Markov switching process of order one and estimate non-diversifiable security risk (beta) in the different market volatility regimes. We test the significance of the premium of the beta risk associated with the different market regimes and find evidence of a relationship between security return and beta risk when conditional on the up and down market movement.Markov regime-switching, Market volatility, Beta risk.

Non-linear Modelling of the Australian Business Cycle using a Leading Indicator

This paper develops a new non-linear model to analyse the business cycle by exploiting the relationship between the asymmetrical behaviour of the cycle and leading indicators. The model proposed is an innovations form of the structural model underlying simple exponential smoothing that is augmented by a latent Markov switching process. Furthermore, the probabilities that drive the Markov process vary with the growth of the leading indicator. The proposed model is used to analyse the Australian business cycle using the gross domestic product as a proxy and the industrial materials prices index as the exogenous leading indicator influencing the transition probabilities. Model parameters are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm and subsequently used for forecasting purposes.Structural model; Markov switching regime; Gibbs sampling; Business cycle; Leading indicator.

The impact of the ‘writers’ workshop’ approach on the L2 English writing of upper-primary students in Lebanon

The aim of the action research reported here was to examine the differential effects of the ‘writers’ workshop’ approach on the L2 (English) writing skills of upper-primary students with varying writing abilities. The participants were 31 fifth-grade students (17 boys and 14 girls) aged 10–11, who followed L2 English writing instruction based on the ‘writers’ workshop’ approach at a private primary school in Beirut, Lebanon. The writers’ workshops were conducted twice a week over a period of eight consecutive weeks. An opinion essay served as a pre-test and a post-test in order to gauge writing improvement. Findings revealed statistically significant improvement in students’ writing-related outcomes across all writing ability groups. However, the writers’ workshops intervention was found to result in a differential group effect: generally, above-average writers benefitted more than less-proficient writers. This was particularly clear in relation to the content component of their essay writing

Exponential Smoothing Methods of Forecasting and General ARMA Time Series Representations

The focus of this paper is on the relationship between the exponential smoothing methods of forecasting and the integrated autoregressive-moving average models underlying them. In this paper we derive, for the first time, the general linear relationship between their parameters. A method, suitable for implementation on computer, is proposed to determine the pertinent quantities in this relationship. It is illustrated on common forms of exponential smoothing. It is also applied to a new seasonal form of exponential smoothing with seasonal indexes which always sum to zero

Discovery of the X-ray Counterpart to the Rotating Radio Transient J1819--1458

We present the discovery of the first X-ray counterpart to a Rotating RAdio Transient (RRAT) source. RRAT J1819--1458 is a relatively highly magnetized (B $\sim 5\times10^{13}$ G) member of a new class of unusual pulsar-like objects discovered by their bursting activity at radio wavelengths. The position of RRAT J1819--1458 was serendipitously observed by the {\sl Chandra} ACIS-I camera in 2005 May. At that position we have discovered a pointlike source, CXOU J181934.1--145804, with a soft spectrum well fit by an absorbed blackbody with $N_H = 7^{+7}_{-4} \times 10^{21}$ cm$^{-2}$ and temperature $kT=0.12 \pm 0.04$ keV, having an unabsorbed flux of $\sim2 \times 10^{-12}$ ergs cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$ between 0.5 and 8 keV. No optical or infrared (IR) counterparts are visible within $1''$ of our X-ray position. The positional coincidence, spectral properties, and lack of an optical/IR counterpart make it highly likely that CXOU J181934.1--145804 is a neutron star and is the same object as RRAT J1819--1458. The source showed no variability on any timescale from the pulse period of 4.26~s up to the five-day window covered by the observations, although our limits (especially for pulsations) are not particularly constraining. The X-ray properties of CXOU J181934.1--145804, while not yet measured to high precision, are similar to those of comparably-aged radio pulsars and are consistent with thermal emission from a cooling neutron star

In vivo effects of interleukin-17 on haematopoietic cells and cytokine release in normal mice

In order to gain more insight into mechanisms operating on the haematopoietic activity of the T-cell-derived cytokine, interleukin-17 (IL-17) and target cells that first respond to its action in vivo, the influence of a single intravenous injection of recombinant mouse IL-17 on bone marrow progenitors, further morphologically recognizable cells and peripheral blood cells was assessed in normal mice up to 72 h after treatment. Simultaneously, the release of IL-6, IL-10, IGF-I, IFN-gamma and NO by bone marrow cells was determined. Results showed that, in bone marrow, IL-17 did not affect granulocyte-macrophage (CFU-GM) progenitors, but induced a persistant increase in the number of morphologically recognizable proliferative granulocytes (PG) up to 48 h after treatment. The number of immature erythroid (BFU-E) progenitors was increased at 48 h, while the number of mature erythroid (CFU-E) progenitors was decreased up to 48 h. In peripheral blood, white blood cells were increased 6 h after treatment, mainly because of the increase in the number of lymphocytes. IL-17 also increased IL-6 release and NO production 6 h after administration. Additional in vitro assessment on bone marrow highly enriched Lin(-) progenitor cells, demonstrated a slightly enhancing effect of IL-17 on CFU-GM and no influence on BFU-E, suggesting the importance of bone marrow accessory cells and secondary induced cytokines for IL-17 mediated effects on progenitor cells. Taken together, these results demonstrate that in vivo IL-17 affects both granulocytic and erythroid lineages, with more mature haematopoietic progenitors responding first to its action. The opposite effects exerted on PG and CFU-E found at the same time indicate that IL-17, as a component of a regulatory network, is able to intervene in mechanisms that shift haematopoiesis from the erythroid to the granulocytic lineage