Short-term predictions and prevention strategies for COVID-19: A model based study

An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported deaths worldwide. During this period of an epidemic when human-to-human transmission is established and reported cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are rising worldwide, investigation of control strategies and forecasting are necessary for health care planning. In this study, we propose and analyze a compartmental epidemic model of COVID-19 to predict and control the outbreak. The basic reproduction number and control reproduction number are calculated analytically. A detailed stability analysis of the model is performed to observe the dynamics of the system. We calibrated the proposed model to fit daily data from the United Kingdom (UK) where the situation is still alarming. Our findings suggest that independent self-sustaining human-to-human spread ($R_0>1$, $R_c>1$) is already present. Short-term predictions show that the decreasing trend of new COVID-19 cases is well captured by the model. Further, we found that effective management of quarantined individuals is more effective than management of isolated individuals to reduce the disease burden. Thus, if limited resources are available, then investing on the quarantined individuals will be more fruitful in terms of reduction of cases.Comment: N

Assessment of Lockdown Effect in Some States and Overall India: A Predictive Mathematical Study on COVID-19 Outbreak

In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of social distancing measure, we considered a new mathematical model on COVID-19 that incorporates lockdown effect. By validating our model to the data on notified cases from five different states and overall India, we estimated several epidemiologically important parameters as well as the basic reproduction number ($R_{0}$). Combining the mechanistic mathematical model with different statistical forecast models, we projected notified cases in the six locations for the period May 17, 2020, till May 31, 2020. A global sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the correlation of two epidemiologically measurable parameters on the lockdown effect and also on $R_{0}$. Our result suggests that lockdown will be effective in those locations where a higher percentage of symptomatic infection exists in the population. Furthermore, a large scale COVID-19 mass testing is required to reduce community infection. Ensemble model forecast suggested a high rise in the COVID-19 notified cases in most of the locations in the coming days. Furthermore, the trend of the effective reproduction number ($R_{t}$) during the projection period indicates if the lockdown measures are completely removed after May 17, 2020, a high spike in notified cases may be seen in those locations. Finally, combining our results, we provided an effective lockdown policy to reduce future COVID-19 transmission in India.Comment: 43 pages, 17 figure

OBJECT DETECTION BASED ON SPECTRAL ANALYSIS USING SOBEL AND ROBERTS EDGE DETECTION ALGORITHM

Aim: This paper proposes novel object detection (OD) approach based on a thorough examination of the image's details and its approximate density chart. Results: Our proposed OD approach is divided into two phases. Knowledge about Spatial Distribution of Objects obtained from a density map that is used to compute initial object positions. With the aid of the original object positions estimated, a saliency map that provides entity boundaries is then used to calculate the bounding boxes with precision, which is inspired by human attention to detail. The scale variance of objects induced by uncertain perspective is a common problem in object density map estimation. A new method for estimating the prior focus for map for any image is proposed. Sobel and Roberts Edge Detection Algorithm are used in this study. The proposed approach is based on sparse defocus dictionary learning on a newly constructed dataset. The focus power is determined by the number of non-zero coefficients of the dictionary atoms. Conclusion: The algorithm's output can capture spatial features and pick the threshold type in a variety of ways.   HIGHLIGHTS: Object detection based on spectral analysis using Sobel and Roberts edge detection algorithm proved to be effective when compared with existing methodologies

Interleukin 7 from Maternal Milk Crosses the Intestinal Barrier and Modulates T- Cell Development in Offspring

Background Breastfeeding protects against illnesses and death in hazardous environments, an effect partly mediated by improved immune function. One hypothesis suggests that factors within milk supplement the inadequate immune response of the offspring, but this has not been able to account for a series of observations showing that factors within maternally derived milk may supplement the development of the immune system through a direct effect on the primary lymphoid organs. In a previous human study we reported evidence suggesting a link between IL-7 in breast milk and the thymic output of infants. Here we report evidence in mice of direct action of maternally-derived IL-7 on T cell development in the offspring. Methods and Findings  We have used recombinant IL-7 labelled with a fluorescent dye to trace the movement in live mice of IL-7 from the stomach across the gut and into the lymphoid tissues. To validate the functional ability of maternally derived IL- 7 we cross fostered IL-7 knock-out mice onto normal wild type mothers. Subsets of thymocytes and populations of peripheral T cells were significantly higher than those found in knock-out mice receiving milk from IL-7 knock-out mothers. Conclusions/Significance Our study provides direct evidence that interleukin 7, a factor which is critical in the development of T lymphocytes, when maternally derived can transfer across the intestine of the offspring, increase T cell production in the thymus and support the survival of T cells in the peripheral secondary lymphoid tissue

Behavior and Impact of Zirconium in the Soil–Plant System: Plant Uptake and Phytotoxicity

Because of the large number of sites they pollute, toxic metals that contaminate terrestrial ecosystems are increasingly of environmental and sanitary concern (Uzu et al. 2010, 2011; Shahid et al. 2011a, b, 2012a). Among such metals is zirconium (Zr), which has the atomic number 40 and is a transition metal that resembles titanium in physical and chemical properties (Zaccone et al. 2008). Zr is widely used in many chemical industry processes and in nuclear reactors (Sandoval et al. 2011; Kamal et al. 2011), owing to its useful properties like hardness, corrosion-resistance and permeable to neutrons (Mushtaq 2012). Hence, the recent increased use of Zr by industry, and the occurrence of the Chernobyl and Fukashima catastrophe have enhanced environmental levels in soil and waters (Yirchenko and Agapkina 1993; Mosulishvili et al. 1994 ; Kruglov et al. 1996)

Biomarker Changes Associated with Tuberculin Skin Test (TST) Conversion: A Two-Year Longitudinal Follow-Up Study in Exposed Household Contacts

Background:A high prevalence (50-80%) of Tuberculin Skin Test Positivity (TST+ \u3eor=10 mm indurations) has been reported in TB endemic countries. This pool forms a huge reservoir for new incident TB cases. However, immune biomarkers associated with TST conversion are largely unknown. The objective of this study was to identify immune biomarkers associated with TST conversion after acute Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) Methodology/Principal Findings:A 24 month longitudinal study was carried out in a recently MTB exposed cohort of household contacts (HC = 93, 75% TST+). Control group consisted of unexposed community controls (EC = 59, 46%TST+). Cytokine secretion was assessed in whole blood cultures in response to either mycobacterial culture filtrate (CF) antigens or mitogens (PHA or LPS) using Elisa methodology. Compared to the EC group, the HC group at recruitment (Kruskal-Wallis Test) showed significantly suppressed IFN gamma (p = 0.0001), raised IL-10 (p = 0.0005) and raised TNF alpha (p = 0.001) in response to CF irrespective of their TST status. Seventeen TST-HC, showed TST conversion when retested at 6 months. Post TST conversion (paired t tests) significant increases were observed for CF induced IFN gamma (p = 0.038), IL-10 (p = 0.001) and IL-6 (p = 0.006). Cytokine responses were also compared in the exposed HC group with either recent infection [(TST converters (N = 17)] or previous infection [TST+ HC (N = 54)] at 0, 6, 12 and 24 months using ANOVA on repeated measures. Significant differences between the exposed HC groups were noted only at 6 months. CF induced IFN gamma was higher in previously infected HC group (p = 0.038) while IL-10 was higher in recently infected HC group (p = 0.041). Mitogen induced cytokine secretion showed similar differences for different group.Conclusions/Significance:Our results suggest that TST conversion is associated with early increases in IFN gamma and IL-10 responses and precedes latency by several months post exposure

Whole Exome Sequencing of HIV-1 long-term non-progressors identifies rare variants in genes encoding innate immune sensors and signaling molecules

Abstract Common CCR5-∆32 and HLA alleles only explain a minority of the HIV long-term non-progressor (LTNP) and elite controller (EC) phenotypes. To identify rare genetic variants contributing to the slow disease progression phenotypes, we performed whole exome sequencing (WES) on seven LTNPs and four ECs. HLA and CCR5 allele status, total HIV DNA reservoir size, as well as variant-related functional differences between the ECs, LTNPs, and eleven age- and gender-matched HIV-infected non-controllers on antiretroviral therapy (NCARTs) were investigated. Several rare variants were identified in genes involved in innate immune sensing, CD4-dependent infectivity, HIV trafficking, and HIV transcription mainly within the LTNP group. ECs and LTNPs had a significantly lower HIV reservoir compared to NCARTs. Furthermore, three LTNPs with variants affecting HIV nuclear import showed integrated HIV DNA levels below detection limit after in vitro infection. HIV slow progressors with variants in the TLR and NOD2 pathways showed reduced pro-inflammatory responses compared to matched controls. Low-range plasma levels of fibronectin was observed in a LTNP harboring two FN1 variants. Taken together, this study identified rare variants in LTNPs as well as in one EC, which may contribute to understanding of HIV pathogenesis and these slow progressor phenotypes, especially in individuals without protecting CCR5-∆32 and HLA alleles