Allocation Schemes in Analytic Evaluation: Applicant-Centric Holistic or Attribute-Centric Segmented?

Many applications such as hiring and university admissions involve evaluation and selection of applicants. These tasks are fundamentally difficult, and require combining evidence from multiple different aspects (what we term "attributes"). In these applications, the number of applicants is often large, and a common practice is to assign the task to multiple evaluators in a distributed fashion. Specifically, in the often-used holistic allocation, each evaluator is assigned a subset of the applicants, and is asked to assess all relevant information for their assigned applicants. However, such an evaluation process is subject to issues such as miscalibration (evaluators see only a small fraction of the applicants and may not get a good sense of relative quality), and discrimination (evaluators are influenced by irrelevant information about the applicants). We identify that such attribute-based evaluation allows alternative allocation schemes. Specifically, we consider assigning each evaluator more applicants but fewer attributes per applicant, termed segmented allocation. We compare segmented allocation to holistic allocation on several dimensions via theoretical and experimental methods. We establish various tradeoffs between these two approaches, and identify conditions under which one approach results in more accurate evaluation than the other

Cost-Effectiveness Model for Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Comparing Early and Late Treatment with Pegaptanib Sodium Based on Visual Acuity

AbstractObjectiveTo compare the cost-effectiveness of pegaptanib and usual care within three distinct cohorts of subfoveal neovascular age-related macular degeneration (NV-AMD) patients, that is, those with early, moderate, and late disease, using a comprehensive economic model.MethodsA Markov framework was used to model lifetime movement of a subfoveal NV-AMD cohort through health states based on visual acuity. The model takes a US payer perspective of patients over the age of 65 years. Clinical efficacy was based on published results for the 0.3 mg pegaptanib and usual care groups. Expert interviews were conducted to determine adverse event treatment patterns and vision rehabilitation resource use. Incidence and costs of comorbidities such as depression and fractures associated with the effects of declining visual acuity were based on our previously published analysis of Medicare data. Transition probabilities were derived from published clinical trial data for each 3-month cycle. Utilities were derived from published sources. Three runs of the model were conducted with cohorts of newly diagnosed patients. Patients were classified as having early, moderate, or late NV-AMD defined as visual acuity in the better-seeing eye of 20/40 to more than 20/80, 20/80 to more than 20/200, and 20/200 to more than 20/400, respectively. Costs and outcomes were discounted 3.0% per annum.ResultsIncremental costs per vision-year gained and per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for early NV-AMD patients were approximately one-third those of patients with late disease ($15,279 vs.$57,230 and $36,282 vs.$132,381, respectively). On average, patients treated early with either pegaptanib or usual care incurred lower lifetime total direct costs than those treated later. Sensitivity analysis showed that base-case incremental costs per QALY gained for pegaptanib versus usual care were relatively robust.ConclusionsFor patients with subfoveal NV-AMD, treatment with pegaptanib should be started as early as possible to maximize the clinical and economic benefits

Cross-sectional study evaluating the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on Long COVID outcomes in UK hospital survivors

OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 studies report on hospital admission outcomes across SARS-CoV-2 waves of infection but knowledge of the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the development of Long COVID in hospital survivors is limited. We sought to investigate Long COVID outcomes, aiming to compare outcomes in adult hospitalised survivors with known variants of concern during our first and second UK COVID-19 waves, prior to widespread vaccination. DESIGN: Prospective observational cross-sectional study. SETTING: Secondary care tertiary hospital in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: This study investigated Long COVID in 673 adults with laboratory-positive SARS-CoV-2 infection or clinically suspected COVID-19, 6 weeks after hospital discharge. We compared adults with wave 1 (wildtype variant, admitted from February to April 2020) and wave 2 patients (confirmed Alpha variant on viral sequencing (B.1.1.7), admitted from December 2020 to February 2021). OUTCOME MEASURES: Associations of Long COVID presence (one or more of 14 symptoms) and total number of Long COVID symptoms with SARS-CoV-2 variant were analysed using multiple logistic and Poisson regression, respectively. RESULTS: 322/400 (wave 1) and 248/273 (wave 2) patients completed follow-up. Predictors of increased total number of Long COVID symptoms included: pre-existing lung disease (adjusted count ratio (aCR)=1.26, 95% CI 1.07, 1.48) and more COVID-19 admission symptoms (aCR=1.07, 95% CI 1.02, 1.12). Weaker associations included increased length of inpatient stay (aCR=1.02, 95% CI 1.00, 1.03) and later review after discharge (aCR=1.00, 95% CI 1.00, 1.01). SARS-CoV-2 variant was not associated with Long COVID presence (OR=0.99, 95% CI 0.24, 4.20) or total number of symptoms (aCR=1.09, 95% CI 0.82, 1.44). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with chronic lung disease or greater COVID-19 admission symptoms have higher Long COVID risk. SARS-CoV-2 variant was not predictive of Long COVID though in wave 2 we identified fewer admission symptoms, improved clinical trajectory and outcomes. Addressing modifiable factors such as length of stay and timepoint of clinical review following discharge may enable clinicians to move from Long COVID risk stratification towards improving its outcome

The Role of Multiparametric MRI and MRI-targeted Biopsy in the Diagnosis of Radiorecurrent Prostate Cancer: An Analysis from the FORECAST Trial

BACKGROUND: The role of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for detecting recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate MRI and MRI-targeted biopsies for detecting intraprostatic cancer recurrence and planning for salvage focal ablation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: FOcal RECurrent Assessment and Salvage Treatment (FORECAST; NCT01883128) was a prospective cohort diagnostic study that recruited 181 patients with suspected radiorecurrence at six UK centres (2014 to 2018); 144 were included here. INTERVENTION: All patients underwent MRI with 5 mm transperineal template mapping biopsies; 84 had additional MRI-targeted biopsies. MRI scans with Likert scores of 3 to 5 were deemed suspicious. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: First, the diagnostic accuracy of MRI was calculated. Second, the pathological characteristics of MRI-detected and MRI-undetected tumours were compared using the Wilcoxon rank sum test and chi-square test for trend. Third, four biopsy strategies involving an MRI-targeted biopsy alone and with systematic biopsies of one to two other quadrants were studied. Fisher's exact test was used to compare MRI-targeted biopsy alone with the best other strategy for the number of patients with missed cancer and the number of patients with cancer harbouring additional tumours in unsampled quadrants. Analyses focused primarily on detecting cancer of any grade or length. Last, eligibility for focal therapy was evaluated for men with localised (≤T3bN0M0) radiorecurrent disease. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Of 144 patients, 111 (77%) had cancer detected on biopsy. MRI sensitivity and specificity at the patient level were 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92 to 0.99) and 0.21 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.35), respectively. At the prostate quadrant level, 258/576 (45%) quadrants had cancer detected on biopsy. Sensitivity and specificity were 0.66 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.73) and 0.54 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.62), respectively. At the quadrant level, compared with MRI-undetected tumours, MRI-detected tumours had longer maximum cancer core length (median difference 3 mm [7 vs 4 mm]; 95% CI 1 to 4 mm, p < 0.001) and a higher grade group (p = 0.002). Of the 84 men who also underwent an MRI-targeted biopsy, 73 (87%) had recurrent cancer diagnosed. Performing an MRI-targeted biopsy alone missed cancer in 5/73 patients (7%; 95% CI 3 to 15%); with additional systematic sampling of the other ipsilateral and contralateral posterior quadrants (strategy 4), 2/73 patients (3%; 95% CI 0 to 10%) would have had cancer missed (difference 4%; 95% CI -3 to 11%, p = 0.4). If an MRI-targeted biopsy alone was performed, 43/73 (59%; 95% CI 47 to 69%) patients with cancer would have harboured undetected additional tumours in unsampled quadrants. This reduced but only to 7/73 patients (10%; 95% CI 4 to 19%) with strategy 4 (difference 49%; 95% CI 36 to 62%, p < 0.0001). Of 73 patients, 43 (59%; 95% CI 47 to 69%) had localised radiorecurrent cancer suitable for a form of focal ablation. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy, MRI and MRI-targeted biopsy, with or without perilesional sampling, will diagnose cancer in the majority where present. MRI-undetected cancers, defined as Likert scores of 1 to 2, were found to be smaller and of lower grade. However, if salvage focal ablation is planned, an MRI-targeted biopsy alone is insufficient for prostate mapping; approximately three of five patients with recurrent cancer found on an MRI-targeted biopsy alone harboured further tumours in unsampled quadrants. Systematic sampling of the whole gland should be considered in addition to an MRI-targeted biopsy to capture both MRI-detected and MRI-undetected disease. PATIENT SUMMARY: After radiotherapy, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is accurate for detecting recurrent prostate cancer, with missed cancer being smaller and of lower grade. Targeting a biopsy to suspicious areas on MRI results in a diagnosis of cancer in most patients. However, for every five men who have recurrent cancer, this targeted approach would miss cancers elsewhere in the prostate in three of these men. If further focal treatment of the prostate is planned, random biopsies covering the whole prostate in addition to targeted biopsies should be considered so that tumours are not missed

Magnetic Resonance Imaging and targeted biopsies compared to transperineal mapping biopsies prior to salvage focal therapy/ablation in localised and metastatic recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy. Primary Outcomes from the FORECAST Trial

BACKGROUND: Recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy occurs in one in five patients. The efficacy of prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in recurrent cancer has not been established. Furthermore, high-quality data on new minimally invasive salvage focal ablative treatments are needed. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the role of prostate MRI in detection of prostate cancer recurring after radiotherapy and the role of salvage focal ablation in treating recurrent disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The FORECAST trial was both a paired-cohort diagnostic study evaluating prostate multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) and MRI-targeted biopsies in the detection of recurrent cancer and a cohort study evaluating focal ablation at six UK centres. A total of 181 patients were recruited, with 155 included in the MRI analysis and 93 in the focal ablation analysis. INTERVENTION: Patients underwent choline positron emission tomography/computed tomography and a bone scan, followed by prostate mpMRI and MRI-targeted and transperineal template-mapping (TTPM) biopsies. MRI was reported blind to other tests. Those eligible underwent subsequent focal ablation. An amendment in December 2014 permitted focal ablation in patients with metastases. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Primary outcomes were the sensitivity of MRI and MRI-targeted biopsies for cancer detection, and urinary incontinence after focal ablation. A key secondary outcome was progression-free survival (PFS). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Staging whole-body imaging revealed localised cancer in 128 patients (71%), with involvement of pelvic nodes only in 13 (7%) and metastases in 38 (21%). The sensitivity of MRI-targeted biopsy was 92% (95% confidence interval [CI] 83-97%). The specificity and positive and negative predictive values were 75% (95% CI 45-92%), 94% (95% CI 86-98%), and 65% (95% CI 38-86%), respectively. Four cancer (6%) were missed by TTPM biopsy and six (8%) were missed by MRI-targeted biopsy. The overall MRI sensitivity for detection of any cancer was 94% (95% CI 88-98%). The specificity and positive and negative predictive values were 18% (95% CI 7-35%), 80% (95% CI 73-87%), and 46% (95% CI 19-75%), respectively. Among 93 patients undergoing focal ablation, urinary incontinence occurred in 15 (16%) and five (5%) had a grade ≥3 adverse event, with no rectal injuries. Median follow-up was 27 mo (interquartile range 18-36); overall PFS was 66% (interquartile range 54-75%) at 24 mo. CONCLUSIONS: Patients should undergo prostate MRI with both systematic and targeted biopsies to optimise cancer detection. Focal ablation for areas of intraprostatic recurrence preserves continence in the majority, with good early cancer control. PATIENT SUMMARY: We investigated the role of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of the prostate and MRI-targeted biopsies in outcomes after cancer-targeted high-intensity ultrasound or cryotherapy in patients with recurrent cancer after radiotherapy. Our findings show that these patients should undergo prostate MRI with both systematic and targeted biopsies and then ablative treatment focused on areas of recurrent cancer to preserve their quality of life. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT01883128

External validation of a risk model predicting failure of salvage focal ablation for prostate cancer

OBJECTIVES: To externally validate a published model predicting failure within 2 years after salvage focal ablation in men with localised radiorecurrent prostate cancer using a prospective, UK multicentre dataset. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with biopsy-confirmed ≤T3bN0M0 cancer after previous external beam radiotherapy or brachytherapy were included from the FOcal RECurrent Assessment and Salvage Treatment (FORECAST) trial (NCT01883128; 2014-2018; six centres), and from the high-intensity focussed ultrasound (HIFU) Evaluation and Assessment of Treatment (HEAT) and International Cryotherapy Evaluation (ICE) UK-based registries (2006-2022; nine centres). Eligible patients underwent either salvage focal HIFU or cryotherapy, with the choice based predominantly on anatomical factors. Per the original multivariable Cox regression model, the predicted outcome was a composite failure outcome. Model performance was assessed at 2 years post-salvage with discrimination (concordance index [C-index]), calibration (calibration curve and slope), and decision curve analysis. For the latter, two clinically-reasonable risk threshold ranges of 0.14-0.52 and 0.26-0.36 were considered, corresponding to previously published pooled 2-year recurrence-free survival rates for salvage local treatments. RESULTS: A total of 168 patients were included, of whom 84/168 (50%) experienced the primary outcome in all follow-ups, and 72/168 (43%) within 2 years. The C-index was 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.58-0.71). On graphical inspection, there was close agreement between predicted and observed failure. The calibration slope was 1.01. In decision curve analysis, there was incremental net benefit vs a 'treat all' strategy at risk thresholds of ≥0.23. The net benefit was therefore higher across the majority of the 0.14-0.52 risk threshold range, and all of the 0.26-0.36 range. CONCLUSION: In external validation using prospective, multicentre data, this model demonstrated modest discrimination but good calibration and clinical utility for predicting failure of salvage focal ablation within 2 years. This model could be reasonably used to improve selection of appropriate treatment candidates for salvage focal ablation, and its use should be considered when discussing salvage options with patients. Further validation in larger, international cohorts with longer follow-up is recommended

Genetic variation at CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 interacts with smoking status to influence body mass index

Background Cigarette smoking is associated with lower body mass index (BMI), and a commonly cited reason for unwillingness to quit smoking is a concern about weight gain. Common variation in the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 gene region (chromosome 15q25) is robustly associated with smoking quantity in smokers, but its association with BMI is unknown. We hypothesized that genotype would accurately reflect smoking exposure and that, if smoking were causally related to weight, it would be associated with BMI in smokers, but not in never smokers. Methods We stratified nine European study samples by smoking status and, in each stratum, analysed the association between genotype of the 15q25 SNP, rs1051730, and BMI. We meta-analysed the results (n = 24 198) and then tested for a genotype × smoking status interaction. Results There was no evidence of association between BMI and genotype in the never smokers {difference per T-allele: 0.05 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): −0.05 to 0.18]; P = 0.25}. However, in ever smokers, each additional smoking-related T-allele was associated with a 0.23 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.13-0.31) lower BMI (P = 8 × 10−6). The effect size was larger in current [0.33 kg/m2 lower BMI per T-allele (95% CI: 0.18-0.48); P = 6 × 10−5], than in former smokers [0.16 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.03-0.29); P = 0.01]. There was strong evidence of genotype × smoking interaction (P = 0.0001). Conclusions Smoking status modifies the association between the 15q25 variant and BMI, which strengthens evidence that smoking exposure is causally associated with reduced BMI. Smoking cessation initiatives might be more successful if they include support to maintain a healthy BM

BRCA2 polymorphic stop codon K3326X and the risk of breast, prostate, and ovarian cancers

Background: The K3326X variant in BRCA2 (BRCA2*c.9976A&gt;T; p.Lys3326*; rs11571833) has been found to be associated with small increased risks of breast cancer. However, it is not clear to what extent linkage disequilibrium with fully pathogenic mutations might account for this association. There is scant information about the effect of K3326X in other hormone-related cancers. Methods: Using weighted logistic regression, we analyzed data from the large iCOGS study including 76 637 cancer case patients and 83 796 control patients to estimate odds ratios (ORw) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for K3326X variant carriers in relation to breast, ovarian, and prostate cancer risks, with weights defined as probability of not having a pathogenic BRCA2 variant. Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we also examined the associations of K3326X with breast and ovarian cancer risks among 7183 BRCA1 variant carriers. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The K3326X variant was associated with breast (ORw = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.40, P = 5.9x10- 6) and invasive ovarian cancer (ORw = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.43, P = 3.8x10-3). These associations were stronger for serous ovarian cancer and for estrogen receptor–negative breast cancer (ORw = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.70, P = 3.4x10-5 and ORw = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.28 to 1.76, P = 4.1x10-5, respectively). For BRCA1 mutation carriers, there was a statistically significant inverse association of the K3326X variant with risk of ovarian cancer (HR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.22 to 0.84, P = .013) but no association with breast cancer. No association with prostate cancer was observed. Conclusions: Our study provides evidence that the K3326X variant is associated with risk of developing breast and ovarian cancers independent of other pathogenic variants in BRCA2. Further studies are needed to determine the biological mechanism of action responsible for these associations

Anemia and growth failure among HIV-infected children in India: a retrospective analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Anemia and poor nutrition have been previously described as independent risk factors for death among HIV-infected children. We sought to describe nutritional status, anemia burden and HIV disease correlates among infected children in India.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed retrospective data from 248 HIV-infected children aged 1–12 years attending three outpatient clinics in South India (2004–2006). Standard WHO definitions were used for anemia, HIV staging and growth parameters. Statistical analysis included chi square, t tests, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall prevalence of anemia (defined as hemoglobin < 11 gm/dL) was 66%, and 8% had severe anemia (Hb < 7 gm/dL). The proportion of underweight and stunted children in the population was 55% and 46% respectively. Independent risk factors of anemia by multivariate analysis included the pre-school age group (age younger than 6 years) (OR: 2.87; 95% CI: 1.45, 5.70; p < 0.01), rural residence (OR: 12.04; 95% CI: 5.64, 26.00; p < 0.01), advanced HIV disease stage (OR: 6.95; 95% CI: 3.06, 15.79; p < 0.01) and presence of stunting (Height-for-age Z Score < -2) (OR: 3.24; 95% CI: 1.65, 6.35; p < 0.01). Use of iron/multivitamin supplementation was protective against risk of anemia (OR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.22, 0.90; p = 0.03). Pulmonary tuberculosis was an independent risk factor in multivariate analysis (OR: 3.36; 95% CI: 1.43, 7.89; p < 0.01) when correlated variables such as HIV disease stage and severe immunodeficiency, and nutritional supplement use were not included. Use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was associated with a reduced risk of anemia (OR: 0.29; 95% CI: 0.16, 0.53; p < 0.01). No significant association was found between anemia and gender, cotrimoxazole, or ART type (zidovudine versus stavudine).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The high prevalence and strong interrelationship of anemia and poor nutrition among HIV-infected children in India, particularly those living in rural areas underscores the need for incorporating targeted nutritional interventions during national scale up of care, support and treatment among HIV-infected children.</p

Outcomes of Medicare-age eligible NHL patients receiving RIC allogeneic transplantation: a CIBMTR analysis

The application of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) in non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) patients ≥65 years in the United States is limited by lack of Medicare coverage for this indication. Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) database, we report allo-HCT outcomes of NHL patients aged ≥65 years (older cohort; n = 446) compared with a cohort of younger NHL patients aged 55-64 years (n = 1183). We identified 1629 NHL patients undergoing a first reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) or nonmyeloablative conditioning allo-HCT from 2008 to 2015 in the United States. Cord blood or haploidentical transplants were excluded. The median age was 68 years (range 65-77) for the older cohort vs 60 years (range 55-64) in the younger cohort. The 4-year adjusted probabilities of nonrelapse mortality (NRM), relapse/progression (R/P), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) of the younger and older groups were 24% vs 30% (P = .03), 41% vs 42% (P = .82), 37% vs 31% (P = .03), and 51% vs 46% (P = .07), respectively. Using multivariate analysis, compared with the younger group, the older cohort was associated with increased NRM, but there was no difference between the 2 cohorts in terms of R/P, PFS, or OS. The most common cause of death was disease relapse in both groups. In NHL patients eligible for allo-HCT, there was no difference in OS between the 2 cohorts. Age alone should not determine allo-HCT eligibility in NHL, and Medicare should expand allo-HCT coverage to older adults