Predicting the impacts of climate change on distribution of the genus Macrovipera in Iran

Climate change is an important growing threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Previous studies have shown that climate change will negatively influence on Iran’s biodiversity. Reptiles are among the most vulnerable group to climate change. Until now, more than 80 snake species have been recorded in Iran in which 16 are terrestrial venomous. In the present study, we predicted the impacts of climate change on distribution of the genus Macrovipera in Iran. We applied an ensemble approach, using five distribution modeling methods (Generalized Linear Models, Generalized Additive Models, Generalized Boosted Models, Maximum Entropy Modelling and Random Forest) to predict the impacts of climate change on distribution pattern of the genus. We also estimated protected areas coverage for the suitable habitat of the genus under current and future climatic conditions. We found that the genus will lose 11% of its suitable habitat under the worst-case scenario (2071-2100SSP585). Results also showed that only around 8% of the genus suitable habitat is covered by protected areas under current and future climatic conditions. Stable suitable but not protected habitats have high priority for conservation of the genus in Iran

Phenotypic and geographic variation among populations of the Platyceps rhodorachis-ventromaculatus species complex (Ophidia: Colubridae) in Iran

Geographical diversity appears in the phenotype of different populations of a given species and specific geographical factors are directly or indirectly involved in this variation. Due to their wide distribution range, snakes of the genus Platyceps Blyth, 1860 are wonderful case studies for morphological evaluation. In this study, 49 specimens of the Platyceps rhodorachis-ventromaculatus species complex in four different geographic areas from Iran were examined using morphological characters. The results of statistical analysis did not show any sexual dimorphism except in the character of Gular scales (P value = 0.038), but did show significant variation in the number of scales and in other morphological characters among populations in this group. Generally, four morphological clusters were distinguished with Sistan and Baluchistan population being the most distinct from the others. Additionally, there was a visible slope of changes in some morphological characters associated with latitude, so that body size of the specimens increases with increasing latitude

Effects of climate change on niche shifts of Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi (Reptilia: Agamidae) in Western Asia.

Genus Pseudotrapelus has a wide distribution in North Africa and in the Middle East. In the present study, we modeled the habitat suitability of two Omani species of the genus (Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi) to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on their distribution. Mean diurnal range and precipitation of wettest quarter are the most highly contributed variables for P. jensvindumi and P. dhofarensis, respectively. The potential distribution for P. dhofarensis in the current time covers the southern coastal regions of Oman, Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and Socotra Island, but the suitable regions were reduced in the future prediction and limited to Yemen, Socotra Island, and Oman. There have not been any records of the species outside of Oman. Analysis of habitat suitability for P. jensvindumi indicated that the species is restricted to the Al Hajar Mountain of Oman and the southeast coastal region of Iran, but there are no records of the species from Iran. Because mean diurnal range will not be influenced by climate change in future, the potential distribution of the species is not expected to be changed in 2050. All predicted models were performed with the highest AUC (more than 0.97) using the Maxent method. Investigation to find unknown populations of these two species in Iran, Yemen, and Socotra Island is essential for developing conservation programs in the future

Impact of abiotic factors and road networks on the freshwater turtle Emys orbicularis (Linnaeus, 1758) (Reptilia: Emydidae) in northern Iran

Emys orbicularis is one of the freshwater turtles occurring in Europe, Middle East and Western Asia, but also occur in Caucasus region as Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Southern Caspian Sea region (northern Iran provinces as Guilan, Mazandaran, Golestan). In this study, seventeen localities in three Iranian provinces were investigated to study the response of this species to abiotic factors (water quality parameters) and road mortality. To test for differences in occurrence of E. orbicularis between sites that could be explained by variation in abiotic factors, one-way ANOVA test and Tukey’s HSD post hoc tests were conducted. These showed significant differences in conductivity (CON) and Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) between locations in the three provinces of Golestan, Mazandaran and Gilan [CON: (F (2, 13) = 9.824, p = 0.003); TDS: (F (2, 13) = 13.957, p = 0.001)]. Differences in four other abiotic variables—water temperature, pH, salinity and dissolved oxygen (DO)—were not significant between provinces, although there were differences. These findings suggested that the species can occur in ponds with the following features: temperature 21–28 °C; pH 7–8; salinity > 750 mg/L; DO > 30%. Road mortality might be another factor that could contribute to the decline of this turtle’s population in northern Iran, noting that the roads were created by human within the species’ habitat and increased the mortality rate. Roads should be monitored in order to evaluate their effect on freshwater turtle mortality. Overall, our results demonstrated the advantage of using analysis of abiotic variables as a valid approach for defining species-responses to abiotic factors in E. orbicularis and recommended monitoring roads to find high-risk mortality of this species and create under road tunnels for moving turtles without any risk to reduce high rate of mortality

Ecomorphological differences among forest and rock dwelling species of Darevskia Arribas, 1999 (Squamata, Lacertide) in the Elburz Mountains, Iran

Ecological pressure is the major driver of morphological adaptation. Different habitat preferences even among closely related species, often result in the evolution of different body shapes. In the present study, we employed geometric morphometric and principal component analyses (PCA) to compare body shape and head plate morphology among seven species in the genus Darevskia Arribas, 1999 from the Elburz Mountains, Iran that occur in either rocky or forested habitats. The geometric morphometric analysis and the PCA of meristic characters recovered a wide degree of overlap between the rock and forest dwelling species. The PCA of the morphometric characters showed wide separation among the rock and forest dwelling species as well as among some of the rock dwelling species. These results strongly suggest that body shape is correlated with the habitat type whereas head plate morphology and scale meristics are not. Furthermore, the results suggest that the rock dwelling species may be occupying and navigating their microhabitat in different ways. Ecological observations are needed to test this hypothesis

Effects of climate change on niche shifts of <i>Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis</i> and <i>Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi</i> (Reptilia: Agamidae) in Western Asia - Fig 3

<p>Potential distribution of <i>Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi</i> in A) the current period and in future periods under different scenarios as B) 2.6, C) 4.5, D) 6.0, and E) 8.5.</p

Distribution of Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and P. jensvindumi in Oman.

<p>Distribution of Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and P. jensvindumi in Oman.</p

All contributed variables (in percentages) for habitat suitability predictions for two <i>Pseudotrapelus</i> species.

<p>Bold numbers refer to the highly contributed variable in the model.</p

Effects of climate change on niche shifts of <i>Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis</i> and <i>Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi</i> (Reptilia: Agamidae) in Western Asia - Fig 2

<p>Potential distribution of <i>Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis</i> in A) the current period and in future periods under different scenarios as B) 2.6, C) 4.5, D) 6.0, and E) 8.5.</p

AUC values of all of the models that were performed on two species of the genus <i>Pseudotrapelus</i> in Oman.

<p>AUC values of all of the models that were performed on two species of the genus <i>Pseudotrapelus</i> in Oman.</p