Determination of economic systems behaviour under uncertainty

The paper discuses systems of difference equations with fuzzy parameters and presents some solution procedures with the purpose to study the dynamic behaviour of economic systems in case of uncertainty. The trajectories of the endogenous variables are evaluated firstly at contiguous moments of time, and then, simultaneously. The relations between different solutions are shown. The author also consider essential to provide an algorithm for computing the exact α-cuts of the obtained solution

Investment Risk Appraisal

Standard financial techniques neglect extreme situations and regards large market shifts as too unlikely to matter. This approach may account for what occurs most of the time in the market, but the picture it presents does not reflect the reality, as the major events happen in the rest of the time and investors are ‘surprised’ by ‘unexpected’ market movements. An alternative fuzzy approach permits fluctuations well beyond the probability type of uncertainty and allows one to make fewer assumptions about the data distribution and market behaviour. Fuzzifying the present value criteria, we suggest a measure of the risk associated with each investment opportunity and estimate the project’s robustness towards market uncertainty. The procedure is applied to thirty-five UK companies and a neural network solution to the fuzzy criterion is provided to facilitate the decision-making process. Finally, we discuss the grounds for classical asset pricing model revision and argue that the demand for relaxed assumptions appeals for another approach to modelling the market environment

An intelligent system for risk classification of stock investment projects

The proposed paper demonstrates that a hybrid fuzzy neural network can serve as a risk classifier of stock investment projects. The training algorithm for the regular part of the network is based on bidirectional incremental evolution proving more efficient than direct evolution. The approach is compared with other crisp and soft investment appraisal and trading techniques, while building a multimodel domain representation for an intelligent decision support system. Thus the advantages of each model are utilised while looking at the investment problem from different perspectives. The empirical results are based on UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange

A mixed-game agent-based model of financial contagion

Over the past two decades, financial market crises with similar features have occurred in different regions of the world. Unstable cross-market linkages during financial crises are referred to as financial contagion. We simulate the transmission of financial crises in the context of a model of market participants adopting various strategies; this allows testing for financial contagion under alternative scenarios. Using a minority game approach, we develop an agent-based multinational model and investigate the reasons for contagion. Although contagion has been extensively investigated in the financial literature, it has not been studied yet through computational intelligence techniques. Our simulations shed light on parameter values and characteristics which can be exploited to detect contagion at an earlier stage, hence recognising financial crises with the potential to destabilise cross-market linkages. In the real world, such information would be extremely valuable to develop appropriate risk management strategies

Soft computing in investment appraisal

Standard financial techniques neglect extreme situations and regards large market shifts as too unlikely to matter. Such approach accounts for what occurs most of the time in the market, but does not reflect the reality, as major events happen in the rest of the time and investors are ‘surprised’ by ‘unexpected’ market movements. An alternative fuzzy approach permits fluctuations well beyond the probability type of uncertainty and allows one to make fewer assumptions about the data distribution and market behaviour. Fuzzifying the present value criteria, we suggest a measure of the risk associated with each investment opportunity and estimate the project’s robustness towards market uncertainty. The procedure is applied to thirty-five UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange and a neural network solution to the fuzzy criterion is provided to facilitate the decision-making process. Finally, we suggest a specific evolutionary algorithm to train a fuzzy neural net - the bidirectional incremental evolution will automatically identify the complexity of the problem and correspondingly adapt the parameters of the fuzzy network

Financial contagion: Evolutionary optimisation of a multinational agent-based model

Over the past two decades, financial market crises with similar features have occurred in different regions of the world. Unstable cross-market linkages during a crisis are referred to as financial contagion. We simulate crisis transmission in the context of a model of market participants adopting various strategies; this allows testing for financial contagion under alternative scenarios. Using a minority game approach, we develop an agent-based multinational model and investigate the reasons for contagion. Although the phenomenon has been extensively investigated in the financial literature, it has not been studied through computational intelligence techniques. Our simulations shed light on parameter values and characteristics which can be exploited to detect contagion at an earlier stage, hence recognising financial crises with the potential to destabilise cross-market linkages. In the real world, such information would be extremely valuable in developing appropriate risk management strategies

The Evolution of Embedding Metadata in Blockchain Transactions

The use of blockchains is growing every day, and their utility has greatly expanded from sending and receiving crypto-coins to smart-contracts and decentralized autonomous organizations. Modern blockchains underpin a variety of applications: from designing a global identity to improving satellite connectivity. In our research we look at the ability of blockchains to store metadata in an increasing volume of transactions and with evolving focus of utilization. We further show that basic approaches to improving blockchain privacy also rely on embedding metadata. This paper identifies and classifies real-life blockchain transactions embedding metadata of a number of major protocols running essentially over the bitcoin blockchain. The empirical analysis here presents the evolution of metadata utilization in the recent years, and the discussion suggests steps towards preventing criminal use. Metadata are relevant to any blockchain, and our analysis considers primarily bitcoin as a case study. The paper concludes that simultaneously with both expanding legitimate utilization of embedded metadata and expanding blockchain functionality, the applied research on improving anonymity and security must also attempt to protect against blockchain abuse

Dynamic Interaction Networks in modelling and predicting the behaviour of multiple interactive stock markets

The behaviour of multiple stock markets can be described within the framework of complex dynamic systems. A representative technique of the framework is the dynamic interaction network (DIN), recently developed in the bioinformatics domain. DINs are capable of modelling dynamic interactions between genes and predicting their future expressions. In this paper, we adopt a DIN approach to extract and model interactions between stock markets. The network is further able to learn online and updates incrementally with the unfolding of the stock market time-series. The approach is applied to a case study involving 10 market indexes in the Asia Pacific region. The results show that the DIN model reveals important and complex dynamic relationships between stock markets, demonstrating the ability of complex dynamic systems approaches to go beyond the scope of traditional statistical methods

A neuro-fuzzy-evolutionary classifier of low-risk investments

This paper demonstrates that a hybrid fuzzy neural network can serve as a classifier of low risk investment projects. The training algorithm for the regular part of the network is based on bidirectional incremental evolution proving more efficient than direct evolution. The approach is applied to empirical data on UK companies traded on the LS

Big data and probably approximately correct learning in the presence of noise: Implications For financial risk management

High accuracy forecasts are essential to financial risk management, where machine learning algorithms are frequently employed. We derive a new theoretical bound on the sample complexity for Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning in the presence of noise, and does not require specification of the hypothesis set |H|. We demonstrate that for realistic financial applications where |H| is typically infinite. This is contrary to prior theoretical conclusions. We further show that noise, which is a non-trivial component of big data, has a dominating impact on the data size required for PAC learning. Consequently, contrary to current big data trends, we argue that high quality data is more important than large volumes of data. This paper additionally demonstrates that the level of algorithmic sophistication, specifically the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension, needs to be traded-off against data requirements to ensure optimal algorithmic performance. Finally, our new Theorem can be applied to a wider range of machine learning algorithms, as it does not impose finite |H| requirements. This paper contributes to theoretical and applied research in the domain of machine learning for financial applications