Markups and the real effects of volatility shocks

This article studies the role of endogenous markups in the transmission of volatility shocks in real models. I design a variant of a small open economy model with volatility shocks and firm dynamics that gives rise to endogenous markups. I calibrate this model to match the business cycle facts in emerging economies and show that the impact of volatility shocks is substantially amplified if markups are endogenously time varying. Volatility shocks increase savings, due to precautionary motives, and markups, which act as a wedge that endogenously decreases real wages and labor supply with further negative aggregate dynamics that are absent in the models with constant markupsSupport from Fundaci ´ on Ram´ on Areces and the Ministerio Econom´ıa y Competitividad (Spain), grants 2014- ECO2014-56676-C2-1-P,MDM2014-0431, and Comunidad de Madrid, MadEco-CM (S2015/HUM-3444) are gratefully acknowledged

Near unit root small open economies

The marginal utility of wealth in incomplete markets small open economy models follows a unit root process. I study the nonlinear properties of devices often used to remove the unit root and I find that they generate different dynamics when matching emerging markets. Models with endogenous discount factors reinforce consumption response to shocks and increase the countercyclicality of the trade balance to output ratio. Conversely, models with debt frictions ameliorate the responses of consumption and trade balance. Hence, to generate dynamics similar to those in emerging economies, the debt frictions need to be small, inducing a near unit root behavior in their Euler equations. This difference across models is hidden when matching developed economies because of consumption smoothing and the mild countercyclicality of the trade balance

Parameter drifts, misspecification and the real exchange rate in emerging countries

This paper reviews the baseline framework for the analysis of emerging economies. Using Argentinean data, I estimate a small open economy model with stochastic trend, working capital constraint and augmented with time-varying parameters. I find that "structural" technological and financial parameters of one-sector model are time-varying during 1936-2006. Time-varying parameters correlate with the real exchange rate, suggesting potential misspecification of the one-sector model. Therefore, I propose a two-sector model that endogenously accounts for the real exchange rate. In this model, stationary productivity shocks and the country premium together explain a large share of the variability observed in the data. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Trend shocks and sudden stops

Sudden Stops are characterized by large output drops, current account reversals and real exchange rate depreci-ation followed by a slow recovery, a pattern that has proven to be hard to capture with standard open economymodels. This paper extends the standard models with endogenous collateral constraints to include permanentincome (trend) shocks and studies the optimal policy design in this setting. Wefind that shocks to the trendplay an important role in generating a Sudden Stop followed by a slow recovery, a result that is also supportedby the data. With trend and transitory shocks, optimal capital control policy is procyclical, although less sothan under transitory shocks only.We gratefully acknowledge financial support from MDM 2014-0431, and Comunidad de Madrid, MadEco-CM (S2015/HUM-3444). Seoane gratefully acknowledges financial support from, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades (Spain) grant IJCI-2015-24465, "Programa propio de investigación" (PPI-2016-A-54) from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, and the Ministerio Economía y Competitividad (Spain), grant ECO2016-76818-C3-1-P and ECO2014-56676-C2-1-P. Yurdagul gratefully acknowledges financial support from Ministerio Economía y Competitividad (Spain), grant ECO2015-68615-P., and from the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades (FJCI-2016-28864)

The price of capital and the financial accelerator

The price of capital is a key determinant of the financial accelerator, a transmission mechanism of shocks generated through the capital accumulation process of entrepreneurs that borrow in credit markets with frictions. This paper shows that the procedure of approximating the price of old capital by the net-of-depreciation price of new capital, as used in many articles since Bernanke et al. (1999), has profound implications when the capital depreciation rate is positive. When accounting for the appropriate price of capital, the effects of the financial accelerator are even stronger than originally assessed. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Hernán Seoane gratefully acknowledges support from Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Spain), grants ECO2014-56676-C2-1-P, MDM 2014-0431, and Comunidad de Madrid, MadEco-CM (S2015/HUM-3444)

Universality of sequences of operators related to Taylor series

In this note, the universality of a sequence of operators associated to the partial sums of the Taylor series of a holomorphic function is investigated. The emphasis is put on the fact that the Taylor series are evaluated at a prescribed point and the variable is the center of the expansion. The dynamics of the sequence of operators linked to the partial sums of a power series that is not generated by an entire function is also studied.Plan Andaluz de Investigación (Junta de Andalucía)Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO). Españ

Trabajo juvenil: entre la producción cultural y la reproducción económica

La teoría socioeducativa y, principalmente, los estudios de trayectorias han abordado el papel del trabajo en la vida de las y los jóvenes haciendo hincapié en el rol que cumple para la reproducción económica, social y cultural. La influencia de la ciencia económica llegó a hegemonizar estos estudios construyendo las principales categorías utilizadas en las investigaciones. Este artículo comienza con el análisis estadístico de algunas variables de las bases producidas por SITEAL y SEGETP tales como tasas de escolarización y nivel de ocupación juvenil. Luego, problematiza con aquellos estudios que no logran registrar otras formas que asume el trabajo en los proyectos de vida juveniles y propone la construcción de una perspectiva analítica que ponga de manifiesto el conjunto de actividades que realizan a diario.The socio-educational theory and mainly the trajectories studies have addressed the place of work in the lives of young people, highlighting its role for economic, social and cultural reproduction. The hegemonic position of economic theory in these studies led to the prevalence of their categories in research. This article begins with the statistical analysis of some variables of the data bases produced by SITEAL and SEGETP such as enrolment rates and level of youth employment. Then, it problematizes those studies that fail to account other forms assumed by work in the life projects of young people. Finally, proposes the construction of an analytical perspective that shows the set of activities performed daily by them.Dossier: Educación y trabajo: categorías y relaciones en cuestiónFacultad de Humanidades y Ciencias de la Educació

Trabajo juvenil: entre la producción cultural y la reproducción económica

La teoría socioeducativa y, principalmente, los estudios de trayectorias han abordado el papel del trabajo en la vida de las y los jóvenes haciendo hincapié en el rol que cumple para la reproducción económica, social y cultural. La influencia de la ciencia económica llegó a hegemonizar estos estudios construyendo las principales categorías utilizadas en las investigaciones. Este artículo comienza con el análisis estadístico de algunas variables de las bases producidas por SITEAL y SEGETP tales como tasas de escolarización y nivel de ocupación juvenil. Luego, problematiza con aquellos estudios que no logran registrar otras formas que asume el trabajo en los proyectos de vida juveniles y propone la construcción de una perspectiva analítica que ponga de manifiesto el conjunto de actividades que realizan a diario.The socio-educational theory and mainly the trajectories studies have addressed the place of work in the lives of young people, highlighting its role for economic, social and cultural reproduction. The hegemonic position of economic theory in these studies led to the prevalence of their categories in research. This article begins with the statistical analysis of some variables of the data bases produced by SITEAL and SEGETP such as enrolment rates and level of youth employment. Then, it problematizes those studies that fail to account other forms assumed by work in the life projects of young people. Finally, proposes the construction of an analytical perspective that shows the set of activities performed daily by them.Dossier: Educación y trabajo: categorías y relaciones en cuestiónFacultad de Humanidades y Ciencias de la Educació

Welfare gains of bailouts in a sovereign default model

We examine the welfare effects of bailouts in economies exposed to sovereign default risk. When a government of a small open economy requests a bailout from an international financial institution, it receives a non-defaultable loan of size G that comes with imposed debt limits. The government endogenously asks for the bailout during recessions and repays it when the economy recovers. Hence, the bailout acts as an imperfect state contingent asset that makes the economy better off. The bailout duration is endogenous and increases with its size. The bailout size creates non-trivial tradeoffs between receiving a larger amount of relatively cheap resources precisely in times of need on the one hand, and facing longer-lasting financial constraints and accumulated interest payments, on the other hand. We characterize and quantify these tradeoffs and document that welfare gains of bailouts are hump-shaped in the size of bailout loans

Assessing carnivore spatial co‐occurrence and temporal overlap in the face of human interference in a semi‐arid forest

Apex predators drive top-down effects in ecosystems and the loss of such species can trigger mesopredator release. This ecological process has been well documented in human-modified small areas, but for management and conservation of ecological communities, it is important to know which human factors affect apex predator occurrence and which mediate mesopredators release at large scales. We hypothesized that mesopredators would avoid spatial and temporal overlap with the apex predator, the puma; but that human perturbations (i.e. cattle raising and trophy hunting) would dampen top-down effects and mediate habitat use. We installed 16 camera traps in each of 45, 10x10-km grid cells in the Caldén forest region of central Argentina resulting in 706 total stations covering 61,611km2. We used single-season occupancy and two-species co-occurrence models and calculated the species interaction factor (SIF) to explore the contributions of habitat, biotic, and anthropic variables in explaining co-occurrence between carnivore pairs. We also used kernel density estimation techniques to analyze temporal overlap in activity patterns of the carnivore guild. We found that puma habitat use increased with abundance of large prey and with proximity to protected areas. Geoffroy´s cats and skunks spatially avoided pumas and this effect was strong and mediated by distance to protected areas and game reserves, but pumas did not influence pampas fox and pampas cat space use. At medium and low levels of puma occupancy, we found evidence of spatial avoidance between 3 pairs of mesocarnivores. All predators were mostly nocturnal and crepuscular across seasons and mesopredators showed little consistent evidence of changing activity patterns with varying levels of puma occupancy or human interference. We found potential for mesopredator release at large scale, especially on the spatial niche axis. Our results suggest that a combination of interacting factors, in conjunction with habitat features and intervening human activities, may make mesopredator release unlikely or difficult to discern at broad scales. Overall, we believe that promoting the creation of new protected areas linked by small forest patches would likely lead to increased predator and prey abundances, as well as the interactions among carnivores inside and outside of protected areas.Fil: Zanón Martínez, Juan Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa. Facultad de Ciencia Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Recursos Naturales. Centro para el Estudio y Conservación de Aves Rapaces; ArgentinaFil: Seoane, Javier. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid; EspañaFil: Kelly, Marcella J.. Virginia Tech University; Estados UnidosFil: Sarasola, José Hernán. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa. Facultad de Ciencia Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Recursos Naturales. Centro para el Estudio y Conservación de Aves Rapaces; ArgentinaFil: Travaini, Alejandro. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral. Unidad Académica Caleta Olivia. Centro de Investigaciones Puerto Deseado; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin