Application of Fuzzy Technology to Risk-Based Design and Decision Problems

A study was undertaken to assess the impact of employing fuzzy technologies in areas of complex weapon system design. The technology was examined for use in a life-cycle cost exercise with the objective of providing a foundation from which to make service life assessments and recommendations on future weapon systems. The issues associated with this problem can be highly subjective and often exhibit a high degree of functional as well as variable uncertainty, ambiguity and noise. The study demonstrated that there is a potential role for the technology, but only in a hybridized environment not as a stand-alone solution methodology

Foundations for Reasoning in Cognition-Based Computational Representations of Human Decision Making

In exploring the question of how humans reason in ambiguous situations or in the absence of complete information, we stumbled onto a body of knowledge that addresses issues beyond the original scope of our effort. We have begun to understand the importance that philosophy, in particular the work of C. S. Peirce, plays in developing models of human cognition and of information theory in general. We have a foundation that can serve as a basis for further studies in cognition and decision making. Peircean philosophy provides a foundation for understanding human reasoning and capturing behavioral characteristics of decision makers due to cultural, physiological, and psychological effects. The present paper describes this philosophical approach to understanding the underpinnings of human reasoning. We present the work of C. S. Peirce, and define sets of fundamental reasoning behavior that would be captured in the mathematical constructs of these newer technologies and would be able to interact in an agent type framework. Further, we propose the adoption of a hybrid reasoning model based on his work for future computational representations or emulations of human cognition